(dramatic music)
- [Narrator] This is a test launch of an Iranian rocket.
(speaking in foreign language) (rocket whooshing)
Iran has said the rocket would be used
to carry satellites into space
but some Western countries have said
that Iran could potentially use rockets like this
to carry a nuclear device.
- We are looking to prevent Iran
from acquiring a nuclear weapon.
(speaking in foreign language)
- [Narrator] As Iran reached new milestones
in uranium enrichment
and limited access to inspectors in 2021,
questions have intensified over what is actually happening
at some nuclear facilities
where it handles uranium and plutonium,
the key ingredients for a nuclear bomb.
- These gaps in monitoring will start
to raise questions about Iran's intentions.
- [Narrator] Iran has repeatedly denied
that it is making a bomb
and said sites like these produce energy,
medical equipment and scientific research.
(speaking in foreign language)
- [Narrator] But nuclear experts says this hardware
can potentially be used to produce weapons
and note the country has been using its nuclear capabilities
as leverage with the international community.
- Almost all of the technologies
have a civilian nuclear energy component
but they also have a nuclear weapons component.
- [Narrator] So what do we actually know
about Iran's nuclear infrastructure?
And how it might be used to make nuclear weapons?
Iran has been building its nuclear program
for half a century.
- In the 1060s and 1970s
when Iran was ruled by the Shah,
there was an initial interest in nuclear technology,
spurred on by the United States
and actually some of Iran's oldest nuclear facilities
were built in that period.
- [Narrator] Jeffrey Lewis teaches classes
on arms control
and is a nonproliferation advocate.
- After the Shah fell,
all of that cooperation was cut off
and Iran had a kind of fitful relationship trying
to revive that nuclear program on and off
through the 1980s and 1900s
until we entered the early 2000s
when Iran made a very significant commitment
to a nuclear program.
- [Narrator] In the early 2000s,
satellite imagery began to reveal sites
like Natanz where Iran says it enriches uranium
for its nuclear power plants.
- Natanz is a complex where Iran conducts most
of its uranium enrichment activities.
- [Narrator] Kelsey Davenport is an analyst
at a nonpartisan organization
that promotes arms control.
- This facility is quite large.
It's big enough to house about 100,000 centrifuges.
- [Narrator] Centrifuges are devices
that spin uranium oxide to extract the useful isotopes,
in other words.
- You want to remove the vast majority
of uranium that is useless
from a nuclear reaction perspective.
And really just leave a condensed quantity
of the good stuff.
- [Narrator] As part of a 2015 nuclear agreement,
Tehran had agreed to allow inspectors
to monitor it nuclear facilities,
limit the quantity of its uranium to 300 kilograms
and limit enrichment to a key level
of no more than 3.67%.
But after the United States withdrew from the deal
and reimposed sanctions in 2018,
Iran began breaching that limit.
This year, Iran announced it would limit inspections
to sites like Natanz
where it's been enriching uranium to 4.5%.
- At 5%, you have reactor fuel.
At 20%, you have scary reactor fuel.
And at 90%, you have the material for a bomb.
- [Narrator] And in February of this year,
Tehran said it could dramatically increase
its levels of enrichment.
(speaking in foreign language)
- If you enrich to say 5%,
it sounds like you haven't gone very far of the way to 90%
for a bomb but to go from zero to 5%
is basically half the work
that it will take to go to 90%.
So if you have an enrichment capability,
you really are going to have the capacity
to enrich to the levels
that would be needed for a nuclear weapon.
- [Narrator] And there's one site
where Iran has already taken that enrichment a step further.
Fordow.
It was constructed in secret
and only discovered by intelligence agencies in 2009.
- Fordow is much smaller,
much more consistent with the size
of a nuclear weapons facility.
And its enrichment halls are placed
under a mountain
where they would be extremely difficult to attack.
And so when Fordow was revealed,
I think most of us looked at the characteristics
of that facility and thought
that really looks more like something
that you would build if you wanted a weapon
than it does if you were planning to make fuel
for a power plant.
- [Narrator] Iran halted production at Fordow
under the 2015 nuclear deal
but in 2021, it said it resumed uranium enrichment to 20%.
It says it's enriching to this level
for one of its research reactors in Tehran
and that the facility's underground due
to a risk of US or Israeli attack.
- All of these factors suggest
that the Fordow facility was likely being designed
to produce this material
for a weapons program if Iran made the decision
to pursue the bomb.
- [Narrator] Another key step in manufacturing the weapon
is the ability to convert enriched uranium into a metal.
And at Isfahan, Iran has a uranium metal facility.
- And this is quite concerning
because uranium metal is another
of these dual use areas.
Iran claims that it's pursuing this technology
to produce uranium metal fuel
for its research reactor.
- [Narrator] So far, inspectors say Iran
has only constructed 3.6 grams of uranium metal,
far less than the tens of kilos needed
for a bomb and it's a purity below weapons grade
but still in breach of the 2015 nuclear agreement,
which prohibited the production of the metal all together.
- I would say the facility as a whole
is fundamentally civilian.
The act of making uranium metal
is one of those 50/50
I would prefer you not do it kind of things.
- [Narrator] Iran has several other facilities,
including Iraq where it could potentially produce plutonium.
In early 2021, analysts estimated it could have taken Iran
between nine months and two years to build a nuclear device
but some analysts say limiting inspections
may shorten that timeframe.
- I don't think we're going
to see Iran dash for a bomb anytime soon
but in this limbo,
Iran will certainly seek
to preserve the nuclear technologies
and materials necessary
to pursue a bomb down the road if it chooses to do so.
- [Narrator] Iran has issued a number
of statements that have been interpreted as a threat
by Western countries.
(speaking in foreign language)
- [Narrator] Analysts say Iran's rhetoric,
breaches of the 2015 nuclear deal
and rocket launches may actually be aimed
at one main goal, to be at the top
of the US president's agenda
and negotiate the lifting of sanctions
as international pressure
and the pandemic have thrown the country
into a deep economic crisis.
- It's been very transparent and upfront
about what measures it intends to violate
and it has informed the International Atomic Energy Agency
of those violations in advance
so that they can be monitored.
That tells us that these measures are about leverage
and about creating pressure
and are not indicative of a dash towards nuclear weapons.
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