Vladimir Putin, the current president of Russia, is a controversial figure whose recent actions
in Ukraine have stirred up governments across the globe.
But what if this controversial figure no longer had that power?
What happens in Russia if Vladimir Putin dies in office?
In 2020, Vladimir Putin introduced a series of changes to Russia's constitution that many
believed were intended for him to maintain power after his presidential term ends in
2024.
Part of these changes involved getting rid of Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, a former
Russian president himself, and his cabinet.
Medvedev was replaced by a relatively unknown tax official named Mikhail Mishustin.
Many observers believed that appointing Mishustin, who is seen as being unambitious and with
few backers aside from Putin himself, was a strategic play by Putin.
Political analyst Kirill Rogov told the Associated Press at the time that these changes might
indicate that Putin is trying to set up a government that mirrors one used by China.
He's quoted as saying:
"Such a model resembling the Chinese one would allow Putin to stay at the helm indefinitely
while encouraging rivalry between potential successors."
While Russia's official plan of succession is in place, Putin seems to be trying anything
he can to stay in power longer.
That's why many believe he tapped Mishustin as his successor because he would be easy
to control and less likely to challenge Putin's authority.
The thought is that if Putin vacates his position as president, Mishustin would take control
of presidential matters, while Putin either takes over as Prime Minister again or crafts
a new position for himself.
Putin is believed to have done this once before.
Putin chose Medvedev as his successor in 2007, then Medvedev named Putin the new prime minister.
This caused some turmoil as this was done without any elections or input from the public.
Many also consider Putin to have remained in charge during this time, even if Medvedev
held the presidential title.
Not only could Putin stay in power, many believe it's his only option.
The thought is that at this point, Putin is in over his head and that a peaceful transfer
is almost impossible.
Alexei Navalny is one of Putin's harshest critics.
In 2020 when Putin unveiled his plans to rework the structure at the top of the Russian government,
Navalny said that Putin can't change his ways.
He continued:
"The only goal of Putin and his regime is to stay in charge for life, having the entire
country as his personal asset and seizing its riches for himself and his friends.
Do you see a lot of Mafia bosses decide, after decades of stealing and killing, to retire
quietly to some beach house with all their money?
How about narco-traffickers?
Also think about the major dictators ... How many of them end their reigns with a peaceful
retirement?"
By carefully choosing his successors, Putin can limit the possibility of a coup.
One anonymous Western European intelligence official has said that:
"Having a political heir is an invitation to a coup in most authoritarian structures
like organized crime.
And letting that heir build their own independent political and power base through legitimate
authority almost guarantees one."
This is why many saw the appointment of Mishustin as a bit of a tell as far as Putin's intent
to hang on to power.
If the next person in line to the presidency is seen as someone who lacks political ambition
and has few powerful allies within the government, the likelihood of an internal power struggle
becomes highly unlikely.
"I've had nightmares that make more sense than this."
In the event that Putin is overthrown, a suitable replacement could be Minister of Defense Sergey
Shoygu.
He's highly regarded as a politician.
And his acumen when it comes to military strategy has earned him some of the highest praise
of any Soviet or Russian commanding officer since World War II.
However, Shoygu was involved in decision-making that led to the Russian invasion of Ukraine,
a significant stain on his resume.
"The Death of Stalin" is a 2017 movie that told the story of Soviet Union politicians
jockeying for power after the death of Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin.
The movie is a dark comedy, and the same anonymous intelligence official said that in all likelihood
art would imitate life.
They were quoted as saying:
"It will be 'Death of Stalin.'
The oligarchs that selected Putin have been destroyed by Putin, he set about doing that
first.
We have our eyes on some people at the higher levels of the security services and army that
we think could be contenders to win a struggle.
But until Putin is gone or greatly diminished it's always going to be nearly impossible.
He's intentionally making sure there's never any clear candidates."
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