WCNC, Charlotte. This is Flashpoint,
where power and politics collide and the
tough questions get asked and answered.
Thanks for joining us here on Flashpoint.
I'm Ben Thompson.
While the general election
is set in North Carolina,
the Senate race is going to be Democrat.
Sherry Beasley is going to facing
off against Republican Ted Bud Bud,
decidedly beating Pat McCrory and
Mark Walker wasn't even close.
This race is going to be
one of the most watched,
most expensive races come November.
One of the biggest storylines from
the primary Madison Cawthorne
losing his bid for reelection.
The embattled congressman faced
backlash from members of his own
party over several controversies,
including sexual assault allegations,
pictures of him in lingerie,
bringing guns to airports and
claiming that some GOP members
invited him to sex parties.
The winner of the 11th District primary,
the man you see right there,
Chuck Edwards,
saying Cawthorne offered his
support joining us now Catawba
College political science professor.
Doctor Michael Bitzer,
frequent friend of the show Doctor.
Thanks for putting on.
We appreciate it.
My pleasure alright.
Sum up this past Tuesday's primary
in a single headline for me.
Played out as expected.
I think you know on both the Republican
and Democratic side at the big level,
the US Senate race.
It was very much the Bud Beasley match
up for November that everybody expected.
I think the margin between Ted Bud
and Pat McCrory was a surprise,
and certainly the intensity of the North
Carolina 11th Congressional District
with Madison Cawthorne losing his
reelection bid and renomination bid,
you know that.
That was something that I think
a lot of us were expecting,
but just we're not sure it would happen.
Let's take those one by one.
For one, the Senate race,
yet Pat McCrory probably not.
Probably the most well known
Republican in the state of North
Carolina's name recognition up at 100%.
Ran two other statewide races.
Was in the lead at the
beginning of this race.
We should say and then what happened?
The party has fundamentally shifted
underneath Macquarie's feet.
I think you know when you look
at both Ted Bud and Mark Walker
combine their percentages.
You're talking about 2/3 of the North
Carolina Republican primary electorate,
basically being Trumpian in terms
of their support of candidates
who are most closely aligned
with the former president.
Pat McCrory has for years emphasized
that he is a Reagan Republican.
He even went as far as saying I mean,
Eisenhower Republican,
that is a different strain from
a Trump Republican and right now
at 2/3 Trump republicanism is the
dominant feature in North Carolina
Republican Party politics.
The Reagan style approach
is a distinct minority.
And what happens to Pat McCrory from here?
That's a great question,
and I think you know for a lot of
candidates and a lot of Republican
voters that fit that mold of a Pat
McCrory style kind of Republican.
They they don't feel like they're
necessarily in their own home.
But where else do they go?
So I think partly party loyalty
will continue to play a role,
but the key question in my mind
is how energized? How mobilized,
how enthusiastic will they be?
Come November's general election.
Let's go to the 11th congressional
race, where evidently it was
not enough to be Trumpian
it. It wasn't, but you have to take in
the multitude of other factors that
basically doomed Madison cauthorne,
and we have to note it was a close election.
The deciding factor was the fact
that 42% of all the early votes
came from unaffiliated voters,
and Chuck Edwards dominated in early voting,
built his lead up to where Madison
Cawthorne won on Election Day.
But just didn't have enough to
overcome that substantial advantage.
I think the hubris I think the political
adolescence of Madison Cawthorne
really caught up to him when you
decide you're going to announce I'm
going to flip to another district,
but then run back home when
the map doesn't favor you.
That started the downhill slide,
the onslaught of negative
news only compounded it,
but it was a close election.
We have to admit.
That there was enough substantial
vote in that district on Election
Day to potentially have put Madison
Cawthorne ahead for renomination.
You're referring to the fact that as the
redistricting process was working out,
he switched districts and for
voters back home, they would know
that you're fighting for them.
And if you can, so sweet,
so quickly switch allegiance to some other
geographic area because it's, you know,
politically expedient to you there.
There's an authenticity factor
that doesn't quite ring true there.
It strikes me another big winner.
Perhaps the biggest winner from the race
this past Tuesday is outside money.
Oh most definitely.
I think this continues the trend of
nationalization of local politics,
state politics.
You know the club for growth alone.
The multi $1,000,000 dumped on Pat
McCrory certainly did not help in that
contest for the former Charlotte Mayor
and former North Carolina governor.
But this fall, that's just going
to look like a drop in the bucket.
I think compared to what we will see
descend on North Carolina in terms of.
Outside money, this U.S.
Senate race is an open seat that is the
most competitive where a competitive
state but lean to the right slightly.
It's going to be an advantage
Republican environment to begin with,
but both parties are going to see
this as a valuable seat to try and
either retain for the Republicans
and build their majority or swipe
away for the Democrats to try
and hold on to some majority.
In the US Senate.
So size up this matchup, bud.
Versus Beasley going into
the the the next few months.
Who do you give the advantage to?
It has to be advantage Republican
at this point in time just because
of the basic midterm fundamentals.
The president's party always loses seats,
typically in midterm elections.
Joe Biden's approval rating is low
economic issues, particularly inflation,
is at the forefront,
but there are a host of other issues.
Abortion, January 6th Committee hearings,
unknowns that are going to
have an impact potentially.
But this year's election
is a base year election.
Republicans generally have higher turn out.
Dates than Democrats unaffiliated
the biggest group in North Carolina
registered voter pool will have the
typically the lowest turn out rate,
so this will be a battle for Republicans
and Democrats to get their voters
out to the polls come November and
remind us because we talked to you about
redistricting so many times as far as
the House members go, we're going to
see this set of House members go in,
but they're not going to be there for long,
no matter who wins. In November,
more than likely the districts are
going to change all again. Next year,
thanks to the Supreme Court,
state Supreme Court and a court ruling,
we will have a redrawing of the
districts at the congressional
level yet again next year.
The battle for the state Supreme Court
will be at the top of the ballot
for Republicans to control this.
All Will will play out for a year
and then we may have a whole new set
of dynamics come for 2023 and 2024.
Wow, it's a it's almost head spinning
for for folks like you who study
this on a daily and a yearly basis.
Alright professor of politics Michael
Bitzer from Catawba College professor.
Thanks as always. We appreciate it.
My pleasure. By the way,
before November's general election,
people here in Charlotte will head
back to the polls to vote in the
mayoral and City Council race.
That's going to be July 26.
So we've got the city elections July 26th,
and then the federal state
races come November.
It's a bit confusing or
flashpoint after this.