The brutal effectiveness of portable missile launchers against armoured
vehicles has been graphically proven in Ukraine’s resistance to Russia’s
invasion almost from the day it began last February. Gutted by
Ukrainian troops using mostly munitions donated by Canada and other countries,
hundreds of main battle tanks (MBTs) litter roads and highways like so many giant beetle carcasses.
Russian losses were staggering even before Ukraine mounted twin counter offensives in
the eastern regions bordering Russia this fall. Western analysts say 1,392 tanks had
been attacked by mid-October, 801 of which were destroyed. An average of 10 a day were
being destroyed at one point compared with two a day on the Ukrainian side.
The loss of relatively modern T-72, T-80 and T-90 MBTs as well as thousands of armoured personnel
carriers compelled Russia to deploy older T-62 MBTs out of storage. The later platforms were
essentially evolutions of the decades-old T-62s with the same tactical vulnerability:
Internal ammunition storage which resulted in spectacular “Jack in
the box” explosions caused by shoulder-launched missiles.
The M2s were shipped to Ukraine with 2,000 rounds of 84-millimetre ammunition. Canada’s combat
inventory includes high-explosive anti-tank (HEAT) rounds with an effective range of 700 metres and
“dual-purpose” rounds, which can destroy fortified positions out to 500m. The M4 can
hit stationary targets at up to 1.2 kilometres, but there’s talk of pushing its range to 2km.
At the same time, Canada shipped some 4,500 M72A5-C1 rocket launchers,
also line-of-sight weapons. Now manufactured in the U.S., Norway and Turkey, the M72 has been
in Canadian Army service since the late 1960s. A simpler single-shot disposable short-range weapon,
it fires a 66mm shaped-charge warhead capable of penetrating up to 35 centimetres of armour.
Unit costs (all U.S. dollars) for the more sophisticated Carl Gustav are published at
$20,000 for the launcher and $550 to $3,000 for the missile, depending on the model,
while an M72 ranges from about $750 to more than three time that, again depending on the model.
The Army has had a replacement project in its recapitalization plans for several years,
augmenting it with a recent proposal for a new multi-purpose, anti-armour and anti-structure,
portable and mounted weapon system. Since development costs of that kind
of weapon can easily run into the hundreds of millions of dollars,
procurement of an existing system would be the most cost-effective approach for the Army.
Two days after punching through Russian defenses outside the city of Kharkiv,
Ukrainian forces have fought all the way to Kupyansk,
a critical node in Russia’s supply lines in Kharkiv Oblast in northeastern Ukraine.
Separately, Ukrainian troops farther south around Izium also are on the move.
The twin attacks are closing a noose around 10,000 or more undersupplied, demoralized Russian troops
caught between Ukrainian brigades in the south, west and north and the Oskil River in the east.
According to Ukrainian estimates, the Russians are losing as many as 600 troops
a day as the Ukrainian counteroffensives gain momentum—not just around Kharkiv,
but also in the south around the Russian-occupied port of Kherson. The Russian army hasn’t suffered
losses this severe since the early weeks of Russia’s wider war on Ukraine.
It’s worth noting what happened in those first weeks. The Russians overextended
their logistics while trying to encircle Kyiv. Ukrainian drones,
artillery batteries and missile teams targeted the unprotected supply convoys,
eventually starving the front-line battalions and forcing them to retreat from Kyiv.
Retreat might be the most favorable outcome for Russian forces along the Kharkiv axis,
as well—assuming, of course, they can find a way through Ukrainian lines or across the Oksil River.
But Ukrainian artillery already has poked holes in the main bridge across the Oksil near Kupyansk.
The Ukrainian assault toward Kupyansk began Wednesday.
The timing was interesting—and indicative of Kyiv’s master plan.
Ukraine’s Southern Theater Command a week earlier began probing Russian defenses north of Kherson,
eventually finding a few weak spots in Russian lines. Anticipating a southern counteroffensive,
the Kremlin weeks ago began shifting battalions from the east to the south.
Increasingly surrounded, unsupported and harried from the air, the Russians southeast of Kharkiv
are running out of options. More and more of them are choosing survival—and surrendering.