In September 2015, the US Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency predicted that
Iraq and Syria would likely not survive in the future.
With sectarian violence, religious extremism, and plummeting economies, many have been questioning
their stability, especially in such a volatile region.
So, can Iraq and Syria survive as countries?
First, one of the biggest issues that may lead to the splitting or dissolution of Iraq
and Syria, is that many Middle Eastern residents identify with their historical tribe or religious
sect.
Turbulent countries in the region are often combinations of aggressive and opposing groups.
During times of peace, these conflicts don’t threaten to tear apart the country.
But since Iraq’s leader, Saddam Hussein, was deposed by the US invasion in 2003, the
country has become violently split along Sunni, Shia, and Kurdish lines.
Likewise, the Syrian Civil War is effectively between Sunni and Shia militant groups, which
include government forces and the Islamic State.
One of the biggest reasons for having such mismatched neighbors, is that the creation
of these countries did not take into account sectarian differences.
For more than 600 years, the majority of today’s turbulent middle eastern countries were united
under the Ottoman Empire.
But, when the Empire was dissolved at the end of World War One, it was left to the Allies
to distribute the land amongst themselves.
After all the lines were drawn, Iraq, Transjordan, and Palestine went under British control,
while Syria and Lebanon were given to France.
Which, was also problematic because Britain had previously promised to give former Ottoman
Empire Arabs independence, rather than placing them under Western control.
This subjugation led to the popularity of rebellious sectarian and religious leaders,
who actively opposed Western influence, and fought to dismantle it to gain independence.
Although most of those countries are no longer officially under colonial control, their rulers
continue to be militaristic.
The second, and perhaps larger issue, was that - in typical colonial fashion - the borders
created for the Middle East were based on the idea of separating various groups by country
lines.
However, the straight line borders had little to do with the complicated existing geography
of where people actually lived.
The most glaring and immediate example of this is the current Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Today, war has ripped apart the nationalist fabric of Iraq and Syria.
After fighting for independence for decades, it has been predicted that the area known
as Kurdistan will split from Iraq, Syria, Turkey, and Iran.
Syria and Iraq will further splinter into Sunni and Shia divides.
Without either economic prosperity or an iron fisted ruler preventing dissent, there is
little hope that Iraq or Syria will stay whole.
What IS life in Syria really like?
Our sister channel Seeker Daily investigated.
Click the video at the top to watch more.
Or, To learn about how Syria’s president hugely influenced the country’s decline,
watch our video at the bottom.
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