Viktor Orbán has become the Johnny Depp of European politics. Hungary's prime minister
has long been attracting the attention of Brussels and other European capitals... and
not exactly for his kindness.
These days the Hungarian’s only fans seem to be in Poland.
For years Orbán has been allowed everything in the European Union: from letting him grab
all the power in Hungary to seeing the Hungarian government itself pay for campaigns against
Juncker when he was the President of the European Commission. Campaigns paid for, of course,
with public money.
And obviously, all this is something that stings in Brussels. Especially if we take
into account that Hungary is one of the main recipients of funds from the European Union.
The problem for Orbán is that now so many years of excess are beginning to take their
toll.
His latest decision to ban all content deemed to "promote homosexuality" to minors is proving
to be the last straw. Brussels at last seems determined to take the Orbán issue very,
very seriously.
[And you're probably thinking, what exactly do they have in mind? Are they going to ban
Will and Grace? Well, just to give you an idea, not even Harry Potter seems to be spared
from censorship].
All this has made us at VisualPolitik ask ourselves a few questions.
What on earth is the Hungarian government looking for? Is the criticism of Orbán justified?
What role can the European Union play? And perhaps the most important question of all:
What could happen in the future? Today on VisualPolitik we are going to answer these
questions. But first, let's take a look at a bit of history.
(ORBAN, THE BASTION AGAINST COMMUNISM)
There was a time when Viktor Orbán was a symbol of the struggle for freedom.
It was the 1980s and Hungary was still a communist regime under the influence of the Soviet Union.
However, at that time the Eastern Bloc was already beginning to crumble.
And it is onto this stage that we see the entry of the young Viktor Orbán, one of the
founders of the Fidesz party, the Young Democrats.
Orbán was considered one of the most charismatic dissidents, and sporting a full head of hair,
at the age of 26 he took part in the state tribute to the remains of the leaders of the
1956 Hungarian Revolution with a strong speech against communism and in favour of democracy.
If we believe in our own power, we are able to finish the communist dictatorship; if we
are determined enough, we can force the ruling party to hold free elections; if we do not
forget the ideals of '56, we can elect a government, that opens talks about the immediate withdrawal
of Russian troops from our country)
Indeed, the Soviet socialist regime fell. And Fidesz became a political party. But in
the first elections they didn't do well at all. So... change of course.
Orbán abandoned his liberal stance to turn Fidesz into the major party of the conservative
right in Hungary.
And you know what? It worked.
In 1998, Orbán became the Prime Minister of Hungary. It was a first term of four years
with good economic data, and it was a period which advanced the post-communist modernization
of Hungary.
Their good work even caught the attention of the European People's Party, the grouping
of centre-right parties in the European Parliament. So they went to Budapest to convince Orbán
that he belonged with them and not with the liberals.
And that's how Fidesz became part of the European People's Party. Life was smiling on Orbán
except for one small drawback: he lost the elections to keep his government in power.
And in 2006 he lost them again.
It was time for yet another change in course in the way of doing politics. From that moment
on, the approach was much more radical, combative and, why not just say it, populist.
So when he regained power in 2010, he did it in a big way. He did so with a 2/3 supermajority
in parliament giving him enough power to change the constitution at will.
And as you well know, young democrats of the world who are watching us, that is the worst
superpower that can be given to any politician. Because since then, we only get news stories
like this from Hungary:
(Hungary's Judges Warn of Threats to Judicial Independence. NYTimes)
Running the government from his position as prime minister and the parliament with that
2/3 supermajority, Orbán has always had the judiciary in his sights.
To begin with, he created a National Office for the Judiciary with the ability to veto
judicial promotions and influence the distribution of cases.
So the judges are standing up to the Government?... well, he suddenly brought forward their retirement
age by eight years. So the Constitutional Court continues to put up a fight ... well,
he expanded the number of judges and reserved the vacancies for those most sympathetic to
Fidesz.
One way or another Viktor Orbán always seems to have the last word.
In this way, the separation of executive powers in Hungary has been progressively losing strength.
Every time it has received a setback, Fidesz has used its supermajority to shield Orbán's
agenda by amending the constitution.
But Orbán's stranglehold on Hungarian democracy does not end there. The elections, for example,
are free, yes, but not balanced.
The State Audit Office, headed by a former Fidesz deputy, has investigated opposition
parties and even fined them millions of dollars, stifling them financially. Something that,
of course, it has never done to the party in government, Coincidence? Ha!
So is Hungary a dictatorship? Well, no, obviously not.
But there are details that speak for themselves.
For example, since Viktor Orbán came to power, some two million Hungarians living in neighbouring
Eastern European countries have been given voting rights. They are allowed to vote by
post; most of them are guaranteed Fidesz supporters.
However, the approximately 350,000 Hungarian citizens living in Western Europe have to
go to embassies and consulates to vote. Easy for some. Difficult for others.
There's no vote rigging and no liquidation of opposition leaders. But Orbán doesn't
even need it.
Many newspapers critical of his leadership have closed down and Fidesz has transformed
MTI, the country's public news agency, into a propaganda machine whose service, to top
it all off, is free of charge, which has killed off competing news agencies. Plain and simple
he’s used the oldest strategy in politics: unfair competition paid for with public money.
And of course, as you can imagine, the smaller newspapers, the regional ones... All of them
are supplied to a large extent with news from this government agency, so of course the content
is always favourable to the government. And with radio and television it's practically
the same story.
So there you have it. Orbán has it all under control. But hold on a minute, because things
have changed since March when this happened:
(Orbán's Fidesz leaves EPP Group before being kicked out. Euractiv)
Until last March, Orbán benefited from being part of the political group that dominates
the European Parliament and has the greatest ability to open doors to the European Commission.
It was an awkward ally for the European centre-right but... after all, Hungary's Fidesz was the
party that contributed the third highest number of MEPs to the European People's Party.
However, it seems his partners in Brussels have now had enough of Orbán's challenges.
Hold on, what kind of challenges are we talking about? Well... Listen up.
(ORBÁN, THE HUNGARIAN NATIONALIST)
There are two reasons why Hungarians vote for Orbán. One has a lot to do with emotions.
For many Hungarians, being a supporter of Viktor Orbán and the Fidesz, two bastions
of national independence, is something akin to being a good patriot.
But of course, let's not fool ourselves, time goes by, and with the Soviet Union being more
dissolved than the Beatles since Yoko Ono set foot in Great Britain, you can understand
that motivating Hungarians with the spectre of the communist enemy is something that was
losing its appeal.
And this is where Orbán's political acumen comes to the fore.
What does it take to stay in power? It's clear, isn't it? Make a new enemy.
And as we say around here, no sooner said than done. Do you remember the European refugee
crisis a few years ago? Well, this was Viktor Orbán's main contribution.
(If you take masses of non-registered immigrants from the Middle East into your country, you
are importing terrorism, crime, anti-Semitism, and homophobia. Viktor Orbán).
I don't know, what do you want me to say? Beyond the prejudices contained in statements
like this, it doesn't seem like the best way for a political leader to address a refugee
crisis resulting from a bloody civil war.
Even if you don't agree with sheltering those people. [A little bit of compassion doesn’t
go amiss]
The fact is that Orbán built a barbed wire barrier on the border to prevent refugees
from entering Hungary. All in defense of what the Hungarian leader considers a counterrevolution
directed against those who rule in Brussels in order to preserve the Christian character
of Europe.
And that was not to be the end of it.
Orbán has repeatedly attacked US investor George Soros as a symbol of “globalism”.
Soros owns the Central European University, Hungary's most prestigious university, which
Fidesz has banished from the country for promoting values that do not coincide with those of
the government.
And many of you may be thinking: Isn't it a bit eccentric to single out a guy who lives
in New York as Hungary's public enemy number 1?
Well, maybe, but while Hungarians are preoccupied dealing with supposed enemies like Soros or
the poor refugees, reports from OLAF, the European Anti-Fraud Office, suggest that the
Hungarian government is not wasting any time.
(OLAF Data about EU Fund Use Irregularities Slam Hungary Again. Hungary Today)
Everything points to the fact that Fidesz has made its inner circle rich with money
from Europe.
And many of you will say, well, most people don't like it when politicians put their hands
in the till. How come they keep voting for him? Well, this brings us to the second reason
why Hungarians vote for Orbán.
And the truth is that, while he has been prime minister,
the Hungarian economy has made progress. Unemployment is around 4%, which is music
to the ears of the Hungarians, who returned Orbán to power in the midst of the Great
Recession.
What’s more, Orbán's Hungary was growing at an average of 3% until the arrival of the
Covid-19 pandemic. - Unemployment is around 4%
- Before the pandemic, the economy was growing at an average rate of 3%)
Does it have merit? Well, it depends. If, for example, we take into account that every
year Hungary receives the equivalent of about 3% of its GDP in European aid ... well, they
would have to be managing it very badly as they are one of the countries that receives
the most money from the European Union. Take a look.
For a guy who's so much at odds with those in charge in Brussels, it’s not bad, is
it?
Anyway, we will talk about the Hungarian economy in a future video, so don't forget to subscribe
to receive the notifications.
The thing is that the Fidesz party could be on the verge of losing control of the situation
after the arrival of the pandemic.
We have already told you that it is no longer a member of the European People's Party, the
largest group in the European Parliament.
But other countries are also getting fed up with Orbán's attacks on Brussels and the
way in which European taxpayers' money is being pocketed by the Hungarian prime minister's
colleagues.
So in the negotiations regarding post-pandemic recovery funds, MEPs introduced never-before-seen
demands.
(Deal reached to link EU funding to respect for rule of law. Euronews)
The Hungarian Government has pulled out all the stops to prevent this regulation from
going ahead. But everything indicates that Orbán's European star is about to fall.
What is worse for him: he now has other worries to deal with. Listen up.
(ORBÁN, THE ELECTORAL STRATEGIST)
Hungary was in the news a lot during the last European Championship. The bad thing is that
it was more for political reasons than for sporting success.
Viktor Orbán's government has just passed a law banning the exposure of minors to any
content that gives visibility to homosexuality.
The outrage was enormous in much of Europe. And the Eurocup was the stage on which Orbán
found the most popular expression of the community's rejection of his homophobic legislation.
Remember that Munich wanted to illuminate its stadium with the colors of the rainbow
flag and that the German goalkeeper wore an armband with these colors during the match
in which they played against Hungary. A similar gesture was made by driver Sebastian Vettel
at the Hungarian Formula 1 Grand Prix. The truth is that many European governments and
the European Commission itself have a soft spot for Orbán. A few years ago there was
an attempt to take action against the Hungarian Government in the European Parliament, but
nothing happened. However the situation is quite different now.
When in 2018 the European Parliament decided to trigger Article 7 sanctions against Hungary,
it ran into an insurmountable obstacle. The decision had to be taken by consensus of the
other member states of the European Union. An impossible mission in the face of the Budapest-Warsaw
alliance. Now things have changed with the new regulation.
Member states will now have to respect the rule of law and the fundamental values of
the European project, such as respect for minorities, or the European Commission will
be able to block them from receiving EU funds with the approval of a qualified majority.
Of course, the Orbán government will put up a fight.
At first, it blocked the approval of the Community budget and the aid for post-pandemic recovery
because they did not want to see this demand for respect for the rule of law.
But in the end they had to give in because they are aware that the arrival of European
funds, a veritable fortune, is vital for the Hungarian economy.
Orbán did manage to extract one concession, however: the European Court of Justice has
to approve the legality of this new requirement for receiving EU money.
All this looks set to delay the deadline for the European Commission to stand up to the
despotic-like member states by a couple of years.
And of course it is still too early to tell whether this will remain the typical regulation
that Brussels is so fond of: strict rules to please the most demanding and a very flexible
application to reassure the critics. Slovakia's president has the same doubts.
("Having the mechanism to defend the rule of law in place is just the first step. Now
we need to make it work". Zuzana Caputova, President of Slovakia)
In any case, if Viktor Orbán has won anything in his tug-of-war with the other leaders of
the European Union, it is time. Time for the demand for respect for the rule of law not
to be implemented before spring, which is when the next elections will be held in Hungary.
(Hungarian opposition unites in bid to unseat Viktor Orbán. Politico)
We'll keep an eye on events. But now it's your turn:
Do you think that the European Union will finally dare to stand up to Viktor Orbán,
or do you think that each country should be in charge of deciding its own path, whatever
that path may be?
You can leave us your answer in the comments. If you found the video interesting, please
like it and don't forget to subscribe to VisualPolitik if you haven't already done so. All the best
and see you next time.