Ever since Russia invaded Ukraine,
the world has been afraid of one thing.
Russia's nukes.
But what exactly would happen
if Russian president Vladimir Putin
decided to push the red button?
When the United States attacked
the Japanese cities
of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945,
it marked the only two times in history
that nuclear weapons
have been used during a time of war.
The destruction
and casualties from these bombs
were devastating.
Combined, an estimated 120,000 people
were killed instantly
and tens of thousands
more in the following months.
People within
1 km (0.6 mi) of the detonations
were carbonized by heat rays.
And those within 1.5 km (1 mi)
from ground zero suffered flash burning
and severe damage to their skin.
Fast-forward to today,
and Russia
has more nukes than any other country.
And Putin has already ordered
Russia's nuclear forces on high alert,
threatening any country
that sides with Ukraine.
So could the world be on a razor’s
edge of a nuclear winter?
Based on Russia's
policies on nuclear deterrence,
there are a few basic principles
by which Putin could make the decision
to use nuclear weapons.
One of the reasons
for this world-changing launch
could be ballistic missiles
aimed at Russia or its allies.
Another might be any attack
on critical government or military sites
that would undermine
Russia's nuclear force's
ability to respond.
Finally, and maybe
the most concerning of reasons,
is the use of conventional weapons
against Russia
that it perceives as a direct
threat to its existence.
This means that Russia
could launch nukes
if any member
of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, or NATO,
started to directly intervene in the war
in Ukraine.
And it’s this kind of nuclear posturing
that has led to many Western
leaders indicating
there is a limit to how far they would go
to help Ukraine defend against Russia.
Now, if this were to go down,
it would all begin with Putin
and a small briefcase
that he keeps close to him at all times.
This is known as the Cheget,
and it would connect the Russian dictator
to the command network
of Russia’s nuclear forces.
Putin wouldn’t just be pushing
a big red button to launch.
Instead,
he would transmit
launch orders to the General Staff,
which is his central military command.
The Russian General Staff
would then launch nuclear missiles
by sending authorization codes
to individual weapons commanders.
Or, in case command posts
were destroyed,
they could bypass those by using
a backup system called Perimeter.
This would allow the General Staff
to directly initiate the launch
of land-based missiles remotely.
If they were to do that,
these land-based missiles
would take about 30 minutes
to reach a country like the U.S.
If the launch came
from a submarine positioned
closer to U.S. territory,
it would only take 10 to 15 minutes
for the strike to land.
Once launched, the U.S.
military’s space-based infrared system
would detect any missiles
with infrared radiation.
Within minutes,
President Joe Biden would be alerted.
And a few moments later,
the response would likely be
an immediate massive counterattack.
That would mean the deployment
of potentially hundreds,
if not thousands, of aircraft,
nuclear submarines
and land-based heavy artillery vehicles
armed with missiles.
But even this huge military action
would still only be a reaction
to the first launch.
Imagine if a warhead detonated
in Washington D.C.,
just a few blocks
away from the White House.
Even if this device was only two-thirds
as powerful
as the bomb dropped on Hiroshima,
everything within
approximately 1 km (0.5mi)
would be destroyed.
Over 45,000 people would be killed
and another 300,000 more injured.
Anyone within 8 km (5 mi)
could be temporarily blinded
by the overwhelming flash
of light from the blast.
People as far as 30 km (20 mi)
away from the explosion
could be enveloped
in a mixture of dust, debris
and deadly by-products of radiation.
This would be a terrible preview
of the devastating effects
that any further escalation
could have on the whole world,
not just North America.
If Russia and the U.S. detonated
their full arsenal of nuclear weapons,
the entire planet would be covered
with a blanket of soot in only two weeks.
This soot would block sunlight
and could lower the temperatures
to below freezing
even in the summer months.
And it could take ten years for it
to dissipate.
The threat of nuclear war
is terrifying.
But all may not be totally lost.
Russia's army was considered
to be one of the most powerful
in the world.
But their invasion of Ukraine
has revealed
that the Russian army
may be more inadequately equipped
and poorly trained than expected.
The looming threat of nuclear war
could be another way for Russia
to keep the world
in a submissive state of fear.
Putin may or may not
have gone insane.
He sure is unstable.
But he is not the only person involved
in launching nukes.
Besides, nuclear war isn’t a game.
If you were the first person
to launch a nuclear strike,
you’d have very likely ensured
your own death.
But what if we could use
all of Russia's nuclear arsenal
for something different.
Like terraforming Mars.
Well,
that’s a story for another WHAT IF.