Hey everybody, it's a chief
meteorologist Brad Panovich.
Let's talk about this severe
weather set up for tomorrow.
The thing I'm watching tonight
is just basically where this
warm front is going to set up
overnight and how that's going to
move into the Carolinas tomorrow.
'cause I think that's going to
dictate a lot of what we see,
so let me show you the radar real
quickly and you could still see
we've got a lot of severe weather
going on in Alabama, Mississippi.
And as I expected,
we're kind of seeing this all
coalesce into one big line here,
and that's really what I expected
to see most of the day.
We would see this eventually just become
one massive line and then head our
direction and as it moves our direction.
I think that's when we'll start to
see kind of a better timing of this.
The rain over us right now really isn't just,
it's just rain.
It's not that big a deal,
but what I'm watching tonight and I'm
going to show you a closer up here.
I'm going to pull up the.
I'm gonna pull up the the
temperatures real quickly here.
Because I can kind of see where
the warm front is going to
zoom in here in the Carolinas,
and you could see somewhere and
here we've got a warm front.
This is the juicy air,
the front itself, the main cold front,
is still back to the West,
so it's kind of a race between
the cold front,
which is actually a couple pieces
back here and the warm front,
as these all kind of come together
wherever that warm front goes,
we're going to have some trouble in
the morning and the reason I think
the warm front is going to come North
is if you just look at this system.
It's a powerhouse system an it's really
pushing winds from the Southwest, so.
The wedge is going to break eventually.
We're going to see it in bust outta
here and we're going to see some
some some warmer air surgeons.
That region just a quick look at the
dew points across the southeast.
You can see do points are surging
down to the South pretty quickly,
so we've got some really high dew point.
Air 60s and 50s down there,
but if you look at the temperatures
that's also kind of the same spot where
the where the where the boundary is.
So as far as changes to the outlooks,
there hasn't been any.
Outlook today was there.
We will not get an update to
this outlook till six Z which is
now 2:00 o'clock in the morning.
So we'll see if there's any
adjustments to this at all.
I have made some subtle changes
to the timing of all this and
I'll kind of explain why.
As I kind of explain the setup here,
one of the things that you
need a lot of questions.
They know how do tornadoes form and why do we
have the setup for tornadoes?
Well, the thing about the setup we
have is the winds, the Windsor.
Everything about tornadoes.
If you have windshear.
Which is strong winds at the surface
from One Direction and then strong
winds in the mid and upper levels
from a different direction that can
create rotating columns of air.
And if we get thunderstorms to
develop that updraft can tilt those
columns on their end and we end up
getting rotation in the updraft.
That rotation in the updraft,
some kind, sometimes called Supercell,
sometimes called the mesocyclone that
could form a wall cloud and in these
occasions where that develop strong
enough we can get a circulation forming
which is the tornado which will.
Come down to the surface and
become a tornado.
The big caveat in all this is
we have plenty of windshear.
We're not going to be lacking
for that tomorrow.
It's that lifting mechanism.
The warm, moist air that's heading in.
So let me show you how this evolves
so you could see that warm,
moist air surging in and you see
the storm is kind of falling apart.
Initially tonight that leading edge,
but look at that line.
5:00 AM six.
7:00 AM so that line is the one
we have to watch right there,
that line and how much of this
warm front gets pushed up.
You look at the wind flow.
You could see it out of
Southeast there out of the South,
here South, then out of the West.
Here these storms are going to have
a lot of that rotation element
going on within their storm,
and because of that,
that's why you're seeing these super
high probabilities for tornadoes.
15% for the area in pink,
you know 10% and again,
these are really high numbers for our area.
We normally you know you're talking.
Less than 1/10 of a percent chance of
a tornado in any given day in the spring,
and the fact that we've got 15%
is like 30 times higher than it
normally would be on this day.
So that's a huge jump in our
normal set up an again.
Even though tornadoes are concerned
and they get all the attention telling
you damaging wins still will affect
more people than the Tornadoes.
As we say, wind is wind.
6070 mile an hour winds going to
damage your house the same as a.
DF0EF1 tornado with similar wind speeds.
Trees and houses don't care what
produces the wind and what direction
the wind comes from.
They just care about the force at
the Wynn applies on the structure,
so don't let your guard down
just 'cause it's so it's fair.
Thunderstorm severe Thunder storms
have strong winds and they do and can
produce tornadoes with little or no warning.
So Speaking of warnings,
make sure you have several
ways to get warnings tomorrow.
We reiterated that several times let
me show you the updated futurecast
I'm trying to look for right here,
'cause I was just doing some
excuse me some updates to it.
So here we are 8:00 o'clock
tonight will go through time.
You see the rain.
This is just regular rain.
This is probably honestly this rain
is probably associated with the warm
front coming North 'cause look at
the winds coming out the southeast.
So to me that that that batch of rain
moving through is probably going to
be the warm front and you'll notice
that overnight as temperatures warm up
and look at due South winds at 7:00 AM.
So the winds are straight out of the South.
Here comes the line.
This is where we're going
to start having issues.
Comes into the mountains around
eight 9:00 o'clock in the morning
starts pushing East around 10 or
11 gets to the Piedmont right there
and what you see in this line is
there's probably little little cells.
I mean,
these little cells could all be rotating,
not to mention the fact they're
all producing straight line winds.
That's 11:00 AM.
We go to noon,
it's right over the seven I-77 corridor
from Iredell County to Columbia.
Starts pushing East at one,
but we still got storms pretty
much right over the Piedmont by
two starts pushing out swords.
Wadesboro Albemarle Rockingham
towards the Sandhills.
Then starts cranking up so you
folks in Raleigh Greensboro.
Probably early to mid afternoon.
I-95 corridor gets really active by
four 5:00 o'clock and then it moves
out to the coast by the evening
hours for the folks on the coast.
Let me play this real quickly.
I'll paint it out there.
You can see moving towards the coast.
Bond five 6:00 o'clock and
then off the coast.
What's interesting is on the backside you
see a couple of little rogue cells forming.
Don't be shocked.
I mean look at the winds
are still out of South,
so the action Westwind hasn't developed yet.
So these are little tiny cells.
And while the chances are lower with those,
some of those storms could
be possibly severe as well,
especially hail with those
and maybe some rotation.
And then here comes the colder
stable air for Friday morning.
Some showers,
maybe even some grapple or some sleet in
some of these areas in the mountains.
That's how cold this air is aloft moving in.
So I updated this map just recently.
This is my most recent timing
ten 8:00 to 10:00 AM in green.
And again I say some severe,
probably a lower risk severe ramps
up between 11:00 AM and 2:00 and
then 3:00 to 7:00 PM right there for
areas to the East and again remember,
our primary concern is straight line wins,
but tornadoes definitely a
significant impact from those.
So what do you do if you have
a tornado warning tomorrow?
I mean,
you know you need to go to a safe spot.
So in your house, apartment,
condo, wherever you are.
Go to the lowest floor,
even if you're in a condo or high rise,
try to make friends with people downstairs.
If you can go down to like a workout
room or some communal area that you
can get to or another apartment. Fine.
If you can't, even in your apartment,
no matter what floor,
get to the middle of your house.
This this room is great because we've
got 1/2 walls between you outside.
Here we have 123 walls.
This way 1/2 this way 123 this way.
So all those walls between
you and the outside.
This hallway in fact wouldn't
be too bad to be in there.
And again,
the lowest floor means there's
walls above your head.
You're all about protecting yourself
from flying debris in these situations,
and if nothing that happens tomorrow
and there's no warnings for your area,
that's great.
But you should always have this plan.
It's like a fire drill or a safety plan.
Everybody should know what to do
in a tornado.
We shouldn't wait to the last minute
when you've got 5 minutes to figure out
what to do and is always grab our app.
I love our app on this is a shameless plug.
Obviously far app,
but I will tell you I honestly use
our app a lot because you can watch
all our newscasts on here Live.
Anywhere and you can go back
and it's got a DVR.
You can watch old newscasts and if we're
streaming or there's wall to wall coverage,
it'll be on here.
Plus push alerts for warnings.
This will actually give you a warning
for your phone where you live,
not if you live in Huntersville and
there's a tornado warning in Rock Hill.
You're not going to get that tornado warning.
It's only going to be for where you live,
so make sure you turn that on and make
sure the GPS location so it actually
knows the location where you're at,
so that's kind of the thinking right now.
Again,
I'm going to make a couple updates tonight.
The new data is coming in.
At around 9:00 o'clock,
the new guidance in the timing
of all this so you can see,
I may have to adjust these slightly.
For the timing overall,
and if I really quickly look at the radar.
So I'm looking at the speed right now.
The speed of these things let me
quickly kind of do a quick stormtrack.
Just to see the overall speed.
So about 3540 miles an hour.
So let's for the heck of it.
Let's stop this and let's just do a crazy
long storm track at 35 miles an hour.
Puts it in Charlotte around 9:00 AM,
so if it maintains its speed,
it would be 9:00 AM.
Now are mean.
9:00 AM yeah, if it slows down,
could be sooner could be later.
So that's kind of interesting.
Will keep an eye on that just to
put a quick storm track on it.
That's a long ways to go,
but I'll keep an eye on it tonight.
So of course we have complete
coverage starting at.
11:00 o'clock tonight,
and if you're going to bed, that's fine.
Just make sure you charge everything up.
Have a way to get warnings and make
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