What is up you beautiful bastards hope you're having a
fantastic Friday
Welcome back to the Philip DeFranco show and today we're gonna focus on one thing but it's also several things the midterm elections are here
Voting is this upcoming
Tuesday and there are a lot of candidates running for a lot of seats all across the country in fact there are 435 seats in
The house another 35 up in the Senate
36 governorships all for grabs and there's even some other stuff we're gonna jump into with that said hopefully today what we accomplished is
We help you understand what races are important. What the
Implications of those races could have in the future and why you should care about races and states you don't even live in. Now with that said
The first thing we're gonna hit on before we just get into the weeds is the concept of the Blue Wave or some people have
referred to it as the blue puddle but most likely you probably heard that first term used a lot in the medium blue way blue
Way blue way blue ways all I can see is a huge blue wave a blue
tsunami so what does it mean what does it have to do with this year's midterms what does the success or failure of it do
Right now the House the Senate and presidency are of course all controlled by Republicans in a blue wave is a term that's been used
to describe the potential of Democrats winning back more seats and sweeping Republicans from power and if it did in fact
happen it would have a
Massive impact on the second half of president Trump's turn at the base level it would mean he just has fewer allies which makes it
tougher for him to move forward on policies agendas other plans you might have and there
Also other specific issues and possibilities that change depending on House or Senate but the main thing here is Republicans obviously do not want this
To happen and for them that means this election is all about maintaining as many seats as possible although
When we look to the Senate which we will in a minute there's the possibility they can do more than maintain with all of that
In mind let's look at the House of Representatives first and the important races that are happening there so the house like I said all
435 seats there are up for grabs that of course because Representatives only serve two-year terms whether it be a midterm or
General there they and with that 435 right now in the house you have 235 Republicans
193 Democrats and 7 vacancies now what's not great for Republicans here is that historically the party that holds the White House almost always loses
Some seats in the midterm election and not helping things out for them is that is especially true danger president's first term where the president's
Approval rating is below 50% and right now Trump's approval rating is around the low 40s
But then looking at the situation from the Democrats point of view obviously it's all about picking up seats and that specific number is 23
I need to pick up 23 more seats to get that majority what are the chances this could actually have well
538 currently says that there is an eighty two point seven percent chance the Democrats take back the house said I was unfamiliar with
538 it's a polling aggregate website
so it means they don't conduct the polls instead they just aggregate or average them and also the science behind their methodology could easily be
A whole video series so that's a generalized situation there and then we look to the Senate the Senate is far different from the house
and the biggest
obstacle for the Democrats if they wanted a full blue wave for starters unlike the house all seats are not up for grabs in fact
Only 35 seats in the Senate are up for re-election to see this because senators actually served six year terms
When it comes to re-election those terms are staggered into groups of three and so that means is every election one-third of the Senate is
up for grabs but
Also secondly there's a closer to vied in the Senate than the house right now there are 51 Republicans in the Senate
47 Democrats and two
independent and those two independents are Bernie Sanders from Vermont and angus King from Maine although they do caucus with the Democratic Party so if
You wanted to keep things simple you want to lump them in it's 51 to 49 now now you may look at those numbers 51
To 49 and you may be thinking fill that seems way easier
for the Democrats to flip especially considering the Democrats have some locked-down races with people like mazie Hirono and Hawaiian Kirsten Gillibrand in New York
but no in fact
538 currently says there's only a 14 point 7 percent chance Democrats can take control of the Senate but even with those odds there are
still a lot of hotly contested races all across the country especially in places like Tennessee
Arizona North Dakota Nevada Missouri and Indiana but really none of the close races have received as much attention as the one going on in
Texas that's what current Republican senator and
2016 presidential candidates had Cruz is taking on Democratic congressman beta or or and polling here has fluctuated but as in general been very tight
And that's been incredibly surprising for many, people watching because
Texas has traditionally been a deep red state and in fact Texas has voted to send a Republican to the White House US Senate and
governor's office in every statewide election since 1994 although as a recording this video
538 says that O'Rourke only has a 1 in 5 champ but even with that it's been very
Interesting to see the swings in some of the places this year but with that said we should also then talk about the races for
Government there are 36 governor's races this year and you at this point might be like why are we talking about governors it's all about
Congress well actually yes and know what governors do is incredibly important but even some of the races for governor this year will play a
Role in future elections and here's how in 2020 the United States will conduct a census a census is something that happens every 10 years
it's mandated by the US Constitution
And simply the goal is to count the population of the United States and then two years after the census happened so that's
2022 States will be able to read district so what does that mean
Well the census will provide states with more information on
What their population looks like and then using that information States may decide they want to read your other congressional
districts to better reflect their popular in addition to general reasons the state could
Also want to redraw their district after the census because of something called
gerrymander in the past we've talked about
gerrymandering you might remember our coverage of Pennsylvania a few months ago as a quick refresher it's basically a practice of drawing districts in a
Specific way to give a particular party a political advantage it's a hot-button issue in a lot of states right now
in fact twelve states have been the subject of litigation relating to the fairness of their match this year though States being Texas Louisiana Arkansas
Alabama Georgia North Carolina Virginia Maryland Pennsylvania Ohio
Michigan and Wisconsin
and of those 12 states these nine have governor's races this year the state decides they do want to redrawn congressional districts whether it be
Because of changes in the population or because of gerrymandering the new districts are usually but not always
Drawn by the state's legislature once the state's legislature redraws new districts the governor comes into play because he or she can veto the redrawn
District and governors in every state except for to New Hampshire and Vermont serve four-year terms and so that means the governor's that are elected
This year will be the ones who can hold veto power for potentially newly redrawn districts in 2022
Simply put that's why governors elected this year could have a huge influence on what elections look like in the future and that's not just
limited to the nine states I previously mentioned so paying attention to governor's races matters and that then brings us to
Fucking John Oliver ruined this for me attorneys general races AG races this is another aspect of the midterms that's super important but is definitely
Getting in general a lot less coverage and as a quick explainer attorneys general act as a state's chief legal officer meaning they are
Responsible for enforcing state laws and advising the States government on legal matters and in many states AG's play a large role in the law
enforcement process too but
also over the past 30 to 40 years what we've seen are attorneys general actively suing the federal government these federal lawsuits have often been
Multi-state lawsuits where attorneys general team up and filed together and some have also argued these
multi-state lawsuits have become pretty partisan in nature and there's some evidence to suggest that if we just look at the numbers from 2009 to
2017 Republican AG's brought 46 multi-state lawsuits against the federal government during the Obama
Administration and on the other side of this just in 2017 alone Democrat AG's found a whopping 35
Multi-state lawsuits against the federal government that
Brings us to the question what do these lawsuits against the federal government look like and what does the breakdown of Attorney General look like
When you break it down Republicans and Democrats well right now Republicans actually control the majority of the attorneys general
offices they have twenty seven offices Democrats control another twenty two and there's one
Independent held in Alaska this is big for Republicans because this is the most they've ever had in the last thirty years and these Republicans
Have in part use their control to protect
Trump's policies and plans for example in February 20 states filed a lawsuit against the Affordable Care Act that
sue claimed that including key provisions like protections for people with pre-existing conditions was
unconstitutional which ever way the powershift goes this era could have a huge impact on the second half of Trump's turn because what we see
Lawsuits like that when we also see a democratic attorney general's fighting back against
Trump's agenda pretty aggressively seeing those multi-state lawsuits on a variety of issues those including immigration to the
Environments of birth control and so where does that leave us in this election
Well both parties support in tons of money this year some estimates saying that Democrats and Republicans will spend more than one hundred million dollars
On their attorneys general campaigns and that's two to three times more than has ever been spent on attorneys general races before keep in mind
That is on only 30 AG races and also of those 18 are held by Republicans and 12 are held by Democrats
When we look even closer there are eight states that have really tight races right now and of those eight tight races seven of them
are currently held by Republicans the states where Democrats could make gains you have Arizona Colorado Florida Michigan Nevada Ohio Wisconsin
And the tight race where Republicans can gain a spot you have Minnesota and also if you're in any of those states here are some
Names you should care about I'll leave them on the screen for a second so you can look at it recognize it because
I'm trying to save as much as pot
I'm losing my voice right now you got it
Great with that said I still want to take a closer look at one of these races so let's look into Minnesota we're not just
Gonna look into this race because it's the one tight race where Republicans could potentially fly it's because the state has
actually had a Democrat in the AG seat since
1971 and Minnesota is a state that has voted for a Democratic presidential candidate in every election since
1976 so Minnesota's current AG Democrat Lori Swanson
who has held the seat since
2010 is now stepping down so she can run for governor but we're talking about it now because this year Republicans have a real shot
In the state and it's not just because they're not going against an incumbent it's in part thanks to a scandal
Democratic candidate keith Ellison has been caught up in but before we get into that scandal let's talk about the Republican who's wrong and that
Is Doug Wardlow who served in the Minnesota House of Representatives from 2011 to 2013?
Also before that he served as a law clerk for justice G Barry Anderson in the Minnesota Supreme Court he's
also worked in the private sector litigating for Alliance defending freedom or a Christian nonprofit that focuses on cases related to
constitutional protections for religious freedom Barlow has
also
Been endorsed by the minneapolis police union one of the main issues is campaign is focused on is illegal immigration particularly
Sanctuary cities so they are dangerous because every crime committed by an illegal immigrant
In the United States or in Minnesota is a crime there's a hundred percent
Preventable now that person shouldn't be here and so it's important that cities cooperate with federal law enforcement
also saying that he wants to focus on state
instead of federal one and so he's been using that to differentiate himself from Ellison Marlowe has said Ellison wants to use the office to
Wage a political war with that said let's take a closer look at Keith Ellis Ellison has worked as a civil rights lawyer for 16
years
he's currently the deputy chairman of the Democratic National Committee a position he has held since February of last year for that Ellison was elected
to the House of
Representatives he was the first Muslim member of Congress he served as one of the chief deputy whips of the Democratic caucus and he's been
endorsed by senator Bernie Sanders
When it comes to issues Ellison has talked about wanting a fair economy saying that he would hold large
Corporations and the powerful accountable by taking on wage theft fighting for higher wages going against student loan scammers protecting seniors from fraud
also focusing on health care saying among other things he wants to defend the ACA and unlike Waterloo Ellison has said he does want to
Focus on national issues but as I mentioned earlier there is a scandal a lot of controversy it's something that happened days before the Minnesota
Primary back in August Karen Mona Hanna listens ex-girlfriend accused the congressman of physical and emotional abuse and here she is in her first
on-camera interview talking about these allegations he walked in
he said I
Need you to take the trash out and I kept cuz I was on my stomach I heard him and I just went like that
and shook my head and
He looked at me goes hey you hear me and then he looked at me he goes bitch get the fuck out of my house
and he started trying to drag me off the bed
that's when I
put my camera on to video him
Following this Ellison admitted that he was in a relationship with everybody denied the abuse allegation?
also after Mona Hann came forward Minnesota's democratic-farmer-labor party
also hired an attorney to investigate the incident and back in the beginning of October the democratic investigation said that Mona Hans claims were
unsubstantiated they said they came to that conclusion because the investigators never saw the video footage of the assault Mona Han claimed to have according
To the Associated Press Mona Han offered several reasons why the video could not be viewed with the outlet saying in her report l instead
That's the attorney Democrats hired noted Mona hands if ting rationale for refusing to produce the video footage
Including that it was lost on a USB Drive and store it or that it was too embarrassing and traumatic to release also a thing
Of note here is this isn't the first time Alison has been accused of domestic violence in 2006 another ex-girlfriend of Ellison's Amy
Alexander she claimed that he pushed her shoved her and verbally abused her Ellison
Also denied those accusations and said that Alexander had threatened to quote destroy her, else and even eventually
successfully taking out a restraining order against her over those accusations out there in the world Wardlow use both of them in attack ads
extreme keith Ellison has been accused of domestic
violence by
Multiple women even the National Organization for Women is called for Ellison to end his
Campaign but on the other side of this Wardlow isn't exactly free from public outcry
Earlier you mentioned that Wardlow at work for the Alliance defending freedom group
Well the group does define itself as an alliance. Building legal
organization that advocates for the right of the people to freely live out their faith Southern Poverty Law Center has accused the organization of having
homophobic and transphobic
policies and the SPLC saying if the group supports quote re criminalization of homosexuality of the United States and criminalization abroad defend state sanctioned
Sterilization of trans people abroad and claims that a homosexual agenda will destroy Christianity in society and so some in Minnesota have scrutinized over wadlow's
Involvement with the organization especially since he represented Alliance defending freedom on a high-profile case in Garden City Michigan in that specific case Ward low
and Alliance defending freedom
represented our G & G R Harris funeral home the funeral home had been sued by a former employee
Was fired after telling her bosses she plan to transition from a man to a woman Marlowe argued on behalf of the funeral home saying
the employees were supposed to dress in a manner sensitive to grieving family members and friends
also claiming at the funeral home had protection under 2013's federal Religious Freedom Restoration
And the judge eventually ruled in his favor and defending this case is something that Ward Louis stood by then and now after the ruling
was announced he said this is a
Significant victory for religious liberty saying this case wasn't about gender identity was about the owners religious belief that sex is an immutable and god-given
Gift and recently in September he said I was fighting for free thought free religion and free speech and those things are not
Controversial but with all of that said about the situation what do the polls say
Well in mid-september there was a poll that
Had Alison holding a slight five-point lead that being 41% to 36% but in late October
We saw a massive shift with Wardlow having 43 percent Ellison slipping to 36% but no matter what happens between
Ellison and wardo remember this is just one race like I said earlier there a ton of other important AG races going on around the
Country maybe even in your state and ultimately I guess if there is a main point is if you can vote this year
Low I think one of the main things I want to get across with this video is there is a lot of important stuff at
All different levels and while I do feel like this year they're going to be even more people that are just doing kind of straight
ticket voting those of you
Who haven't done like?
mail-in voting or like you're actually going to vote on Tuesday you should be as informed as possible so I highly recommend it's gonna be
one of the top links in the description down below go to vote for one one dot
all you have to do is enter the address of where you live and they will give you a
Personalized voter guide for example I answered mine and in these midterms I'm gonna be voting on
28 things you know it has the Senate the house the AG the governor then I'm also voting on propositions involving kidney
Dialysis clinics mental health houses is a time to be informed about and there's a ton you can have an effect on and it is
A serious enough issue to me for me to make this video which I know is gonna do lower views and are kind of regular
Stuff but it's really is important and the fact that we even get to do this a lot of people take for granted and so
We're gonna leave it today hopefully this video is helpful in general and interesting in general with that said if you really made it to
This point thank you give yourself a pat on the back and hit that like button
Also if you're new you want more I usually talk about several topics in a show hit that subscribe button
if you miss the last two videos on this channel you want to check it out click a tap right there but with that said
Of course as always my name's
Philip defranco you've just been phill'd Xin I love yo faces and I'll see you on Sunday
with an extra bonus video but until then I'm gonna go to sleep
bye