and we'll get to that but I think this is
a big deal in my book the crasher 2016 and no this is not a gratuitous plug for
the book
arm in fact this is the scary thing I tried to really downplay this in the
book
one other thing is that we observed
was that there are these eighty-year cycles a crash is followed by wars
eighty years ago as a crash ove 1929 followed by world war two
eighty years before there was a crash in 1857 followed by the Civil War
eighty years you for that was the crashes 1769 1770
followed by the American Revolution and eighty years before that there was a you
know you can just I it's like
it with we have a crash it takes is a decade or two to figure out how to put
things back together
then things are stable for fifty or sixty years and then
you know the people who remember how the crash happened and how we put it back
together die of
and so we get stupid and we do they make the same stupid mistakes
reagan dropped taxes in in 1983
480 586 the exact same way that but that Warren Harding drop them in 1921
and so we get stupid again we make the same stupid mistakes
and we'd end up with the same result and we have another crash followed by a war
and I suggest in the book the crash 2016 you know hopefully will avoid the war
part this time
they're leaving at least figure that out but if we don't there's a couple
possible scenarios for war
and one of them would involve
China verses Taiwan and Japan
and keep in mind I wrote the sea year ago
so now
here it is
in the financial times I read this article and I just just just dropped my
job Martin wolf
overrun the I think this is an election home now it was
it does any this is this is in the Financial Times actually i cum
the headline China must not copy the kaiser's errors
the sub head Beijing in its dispute with japan raise
risks repeating the errors an earlier era that led to war
any talks about
you know the arrival love Imperial Germany and late 19th century
and back then there was the question raised you know
this is a problem the militarization Germany
he says we know how the story and in 1914 1914 course being the year that
what were once started when archduke ferdinand in July 1914 was assassinated
in Sarajevo in
and you know the dominoes started to fall
in a result is often
on november eleventh nineteen 18 with the with the into World War one and then
a year later the tree oversight
and
he points to this book the great illusion Martin wolf
references this and i love reading these old books and so I spent a good part of
yesterday
when I was supposed to be writing my own next book reen
the great illusion by Norman angle who is originally
published in 1909 the the copy that I have in my hand
was printed 1913 it's actually a PDF of the copy that was pretty 1913 fourth
fourth revised enlarged edition course this was a year before World War one
and in this but I was published by GP Putnam's sons are
Putnam's & Sons and lays out the stock to keep in mind this is before World War
one
and says you know what are the fundamental mode is that explain the
present rivalry love
armaments in Europe notably the Anglo German in the reserves as
arms race going on in nineteen 09
between Germany and England
and people are starting to worry
and so this fellow angle comes along or Menangle any sisterhood or about this
he says this is not going to lead or there's no way
I he said the you know the the the it belongs war belongs to a stager
development out of which we have passed
the Commerce and Industry the people no longer depend upon the expansion of its
political frontiers
in fact yeah i'm quoting now from the book the military power socially and
economically few to Lincoln have no relation the prosperity people exercise
in
and that he was right by the way world war one nobody won
at the you know where or when everybody was more impoverished by
that it is impossible for one nation sees my fourth the wealth other or trade
another
to enrich itself by subjugating are imposing by will
it will by force on another he was right again you know the no winners what we're
one
economically eases in short war even when Victoria's can no longer achieve
those aims for which people strive
wealth in the I'm quoting 1913 wealth in the economically civilized world is
found upon credit and commercial contract
when Germany annexed I'll else Asia no individual Germany secured a single
marks worth else Asian properties the spoils of war
just more went back and forth right alsace-lorraine you know I went back and
forth between the germs a French over and over and over again
his international finance has become so interdependent and so interwoven with
trading industry that the intangible it even and raise property extends to his
trade
therefore political and military power can a reality do nothing for trade
so therefore you're it you know and have quote therefore there's actually a war
good gimme a break he says the forces which brought about the economic utility
admit military power
have also rendered it of usual as a means of enforcing the nation's
moral ideals which is the other argument for all those people are bad
or imposing social institutions upon a conquered people
Germany cannot turn candor Australian a German colonies that is stamp out their
language in their law are the literature the duration
by capturing them the fight for ideals can no longer take the form of a fight
between nations
were has no longer the justification that it makes the spur the survival of
the fittest
so any all that is a quote from this book was published 1913 same
yeah first this arms race going on between Germany and England
and don't worry about it cuz war is impossible all right now is an arms race
going on between Japan
and China and Taiwan
and the United States and juan Martin wolf is pointing out the Financial Times
is anytime others East the East China Sea Air Defense I don't occasions own
we're now the Chinese the south koreans and the Japanese are all
base with claiming the same reef
nieces national ambition this is how he ends the article Nationals ambitions
resentments are past wrongs are all too
human but this game is just too risky the same take a longer-term
and interest in the Chinese people mister Zeeshan thank again and hold
because he's basically saying this could lead two or three
home
so those of you who remember in 2009
6 when I was saying look at the housing starts
there's gonna be a stock market crash within a year or so lookout let's have
this conversation in a year or two
about the one E
this is the Thom Hartmann program and please God let me be wrong
because a war between the United States and China or Japan and China
and a corset with japan would involved in as it would be for