June 23rd, 2016. The referendum on European Union membership has been voted on - and
Brexit has passed. The United Kingdom will be leaving the EU, and its supporters are ecstatic!
But be careful what you wish for, because Brexit might have
long-term devastating consequences on the United Kingdom’s stability. In fact,
could it lead to the end of one of the world’s oldest democracies?
Here’s how Brexit could wind up destroying the United Kingdom.
There was a lot of time to debate the consequences of Brexit, and many people
tried to stop it in its tracks - including an attempt to topple the Prime Minister that
nearly led to an unlikely coalition with a controversial Labour leader. But in the end,
the UK left the EU on January 31st 2020 - about two months before the world got completely turned
upside down by a pandemic, lockdowns, and everything else associated with 2020. So
that makes separating Brexit’s consequences from the effects of everything else a little tricky.
But there have definitely been consequences.
The main goal of Brexit was to gain back that can-do self-sufficient British spirit that got
the country through the Wars - and while some might argue that it’s worked, it also meant
cutting Britain off from a much larger network of support. The EU is made up of 27 countries,
all of which have an agreement that allows free travel between member states as well as favorable
trade terms- and the UK is now on the outside looking in. It may have seemed like a great
idea at first, but it wouldn’t be long before the UK started feeling the negative effects.
And almost three years in, the consequences keep building.
For one thing, the UK has seen a significant increase in labor shortages. This is because
many foreign workers fill jobs around the EU, and after Brexit they now have to get
permission to work in the UK. Getting a work visa can be time-consuming,
and what makes more sense? Applying to work in one country, or working to apply in a network
of 27 countries? That makes the UK a distant second choice for those looking to work in
Europe. This has led to vacancies at the local pub - horrors! - but it’s also led to many
job openings in critical fields like healthcare, because the foreign nationals just aren’t coming.
And that plays a key role in another critical area.
It’s easy to make jokes about British food - mushy peas! Pudding made from blood! - but Britain does
have a thriving agricultural sector that can keep the country fed through the year. But no
sector has been hit harder than the farmers by the labor shortage caused by Brexit. Farmers
often simply don’t have the staff to harvest all their crops, and that leads to harvests being
wasted - which leads to farms going bankrupt, and empty shelves at the supermarket. Industrial farms
often employ up to 3,000 workers per harvest season - many of them from countries in Eastern
Europe - and the lack of staff is killing their ability to supply Britain with food.
Britain might have been able to fulfil some of its food needs domestically,
but it has and still does import much of its food from abroad. In fact,
VERY short-lived Prime Minister Liz Truss shocked her party conference when she
informed them that the UK imports two-thirds of its cheese from abroad. This was clearly
a disgrace - because you can’t have a stuffy politicians’ conference without some cheese!
But the simple act of importing food has now become much more challenging due to
Brexit. Under EU law, tariffs and inspections were largely minimal, but now every import
and export deal has to be renegotiated. What’s more, the government wants to impose new import
controls - which could make accommodating for the farming shortages even trickier.
But this isn’t the only thing made trickier by Brexit.
Travel in the EU sounds strange to most people living outside of the union. How
did 27 independent countries agree to allow their citizens to travel across
their borders without passport checks? Well, it took a lot of cooperation
and trust. By contrast, traveling to another country from the United States often means long
lines for searches and questions - and then an even longer line when you come back! The
UK may be an island, but the residents still crossed over frequently - via a tunnel under
the English Channel, which connected them to France via a high-speed train line!
But the times, they are-a–changing.
While the UK and the EU have maintained freedom of travel between the two - they
are still allies and members of NATO, after all - they’re now considered different countries,
and that means anyone who crosses across the English Channel via train should bring
their passport and be prepared for more security checks. A minor complication,
but one that could still put the damper on a vacation if a key document gets left behind.
And if Brexit has brough about one thing it’s lines.
Brexit seems to have meant more bureaucracy, more documents, and more delays - just about
everywhere! This is most common at the borders, and nowhere was it more obvious than in July 2022,
when those trying to enter the country via the Port of Dover found themselves waiting,
and waiting, and waiting. While conservative politicians originally said there would be
no major delays, the simple act of requiring passport checks soon snowballed into massive
six-hour waits. And it wasn’t just at British ports - suddenly, all those quick-check lines
that allowed British visitors to just sail through European passport checks were no more,
and ports all around the European Union found themselves facing major delays as
they had to check that British tourists were there legally and had plans to
return. Guess Brits heading abroad had better practice their stiff upper lip…
But just about everyone is going to feel the impact of Brexit in some way.
It’s not just food-related imports and exports that have taken a big hit. In the first year
after Brexit, it was estimated that exports to Europe fell by around 14%. This was partially due
to Covid, but the impact has continued to be felt - and a big part of that is the increased fees,
security, and paperwork that everyone has to deal with. That includes countless small businesses,
which have found it more expensive than ever to send their goods abroad. Many long-time
small businesses might decide to close their doors rather than try to compete in this brave
new market - and will likely be replaced with either locally-focused businesses,
or, more likely multinational chains that are used to navigating the bureaucracy.
And that has meant lasting issues for the economy.
Part of the appeal of Brexit was that the United Kingdom could move away from the
EU’s costly fees and sharing arrangements - which were meant to boost the welfare of
poorer countries with the help of wealthier ones like Britain and France. And the UK doesn’t have
to pay those fees anymore - but this may not be a positive. Since Brexit happened,
the EU’s gross domestic product has jumped by over eight percent - while the UK’s growth is less than
four percent. That’s well below expectations, and while much of this can be attributed to Covid, the
country’s trouble getting workers and exporting its products definitely isn’t helping either.
So Britain is making less money - but it may be spending more domestially, too.
Inflation is the word on everyone’s mind right now. It seems like everything is
costing more these days - from airline fares, to grocery staples. Some people blame all the
money going to help Ukraine fight off Russian invaders. Other people blame corporate greed.
The answer is complicated, but one thing is for sure - inflation isn’t the same in every country,
and Britain is having a much worse time than the average EU member. It uses the British
Pound rather than the Euro, keeping its own currency even when it was in the EU, and now
the Pound is weakening significantly. Inflation in the Eurozone seems to be starting to improve,
but that’s not helping the United Kingdom - and the ongoing supply chain issues and labor
problems certainly aren’t helping investors feel more confident in the country’s future.
But Brexit isn’t just detrimental to Britain’s economy - it’s damaging its culture.
The United Kingdom is a major hub for tourism, coming in tenth place by number of arrivals and
fifth place by tourism revenue - boosted by a number of factors. It’s one of the
closest international destinations that speaks English for Americans to visit if
they don’t want to learn another language. It also has no shortage of tourist attractions,
ranging from Big Ben and Windsor Castle - home of the Royal family! - to more modern attractions
like the Alton Towers theme park. It even had legendary historical sites like Stonehenge.
But will the tourists keep coming?
American tourists are likely to keep coming, as their situation hasn’t really
changed - although the increased costs for flights may cause some to decide Canada is
a better international destination instead. But as for EU tourists,
they might want to go to Britain - but then they look at all the requirements
and might think that the Colosseum in Rome or the Eiffel Tower might makes a little
more sense. While tourism revenue is still in complete flux right now due to the pandemic,
and is only starting to recover, no one is sure if Britain’s overall economy will ever fully recover.
But tourism isn’t just fun and games. For some people, it’s their livelihood.
It’s a time-honored tradition for the performing arts - the traveling showman. It dates back to
the bards of the middle ages, who would travel from town to town singing their
songs and hoping for tips from the populace - and not to anger the local authorities. Today,
the country roads have been replaced with vans of traveling musicians searching for their next
gig - and for British musicians, those gigs got a lot harder to get. Now, going on tour means
dealing with a seemingly never-ending array of bureaucracy. Not only do they have to apply for
a visa to perform in the EU, but they may have to deal with different regulations at every border,
including searches that pose the risk of damaging their costly musical equipment.
And it’s created some big roadblocks for even the biggest British musicians.
In the past, continental Europe was home to some of the biggest music festivals in
the world. British musicians considered these festivals mainstays of their tours,
but now the associated costs of heading to those festivals have caused many British
artists to scale back their plans. The result? A near-fifty-percent decrease in
British artists playing at EU festivals! This has not only affected the artists bottom line
and their opportunity to boost their profile, it’s affected the quality of those festivals.
Not only do the artists have to deal with added bureaucracy at the borders, but they have to pay a
different tax rate for each country they visit. It’s almost enough for a struggling musician
to take dad’s advice, give up the guitar, and get a decent job at the fish factory.
About that fish factory…
Back in the early days of the campaign for Brexit,
one group was louder than others - the fishermen. They were tired of EU regulations on fishing,
which gave other countries access to rich British fishing waters and required the workers on the
sea to abide by European rules on sustainability and other quotas. They were looking forward to
Britain taking back the seas and giving their industry a new lease on life - and of course,
making fish and chips, an iconic staple of British cuisine, cheaper than ever!
Unfortunately for those who enjoy their fish and chips,
Brexit might have made their favourite dish more expensive.
The final Brexit agreement divided up the fishing waters around the UK,
which did not give British fishermen quite as much as they wanted. But there’s been a
much bigger consequence to the split - as fish and seafood exports have massively
decreased to the EU. The costs of shipping are so high that the fishing companies often
lose money on every shipment abroad. This means the catch is mostly for domestic use,
which means less fish is needed. This has led to fishing companies scaling back their business,
and many fishermen are looking for a more profitable line of work with greater stability.
Hm, maybe it’s time to go back to school?
Brexit has caused a lot of damage to the UK’s educational sector as well - particularly its
universities. The population of foreign students has decreased, and the number of British students
allowed to study abroad has dropped as well. This is all due to the border issue,
but the bigger problem may be invisible. Research programs between universities are the backbone of
the educational world, and the difficulty of traveling from one country to another
has made many specialists from abroad hesitant to work with British universities on long-term
projects. This means research projects could be cancelled or delayed, British universities
could see a brain drain, and future students could see fewer opportunities for growth.
But a much bigger problem may be brewing - because the United Kingdom isn’t so united anymore.
The United Kingdom is composed of four distinct regions - England, at the heart of the big island,
Scotland to the north, Wales on the west coast, and Northern Ireland atop Britain’s longtime rival
Ireland. All four regions have their own distinct culture, dialect, traditions - and an intense
sense of local pride. Independence movements exist in all four - Scottish independence
narrowly failed a few years before Brexit, and Welsh independence movements are quieter
but still prominent. As for Northern Ireland, while it is still majority-Protestant and not
exactly in sync with the rest of Ireland, more of its citizens are considering the possibility
of a united Ireland as the Troubles fade into history. Even after all of the pressure, the UK
has refused to consider any other independence movements after the last Scottish referendum.
But thanks to Brexit, that may be changing.
When the voters of Scotland narrowly rejected independence in 2014, it was largely a vote for
the status quo. Young voters swung in favor of independence, hoping Scotland would be a more
progressive country as opposed to the UK’s long, long streak of Tory Prime Ministers. Older voters,
meanwhile, tilted the balance in favor of remaining. Maybe it was their loyalty to
the crown, maybe it was that they liked conservative governments - or maybe it
was just that they liked how things worked and they didn’t want to see them change now!
The problem is…they no longer work that way.
When the UK left the European Union, so went all the privileges of membership - whether the
Scottish people voted for them or not. Scotland voted overwhelmingly to remain by a 62-38 margin,
but were outvoted in the end - and many now wonder if an independent Scotland could apply to rejoin
the European Union. It wouldn’t be guaranteed, but the odds are that the EU leadership would
be sympathetic to them and consider them for membership quickly. Polls now show that support
for an second Scottish referendum on independence has skyrocketed - and would likely pass this
time. The government has refused to allow it, but it’s not clear how long they can hold on.
And it’s not the only country in the UK getting increasingly agitated.
The vote was a mixed bag in Wales, with most counties narrowly voting to leave but
several major coastal counties voting to remain. The margin was close - 52 to 47 to leave. The
Welsh independence movement has always been the quietest of the three, but its supporters are
gaining momentum and recent polls showed support has risen to over 40%. A Welsh independence
movement would be an underdog right now - but if Scotland successfully gains independence,
it might energize the supporters even more - and most referendums come down to turnout
and enthusiasm. An independent Wales would be a small country and have less sway with the EU
at first compared to Scotland, but it could easily follow its larger neighbor’s path.
And then there’s the very thorny issue of Northern Ireland.
While not as decisive as Scotland, Northern Ireland’s 55% majority in favor of remaining
was easy to understand. The religious divide in Ireland led to decades of bloody conflict,
and the status quo of both Ireland and the UK being members of the European Union helped to
keep things on a low boil. But now, there was a much bigger issue to contend with - a border
in the middle of Ireland that might separate families on the two sides! While obviously
nowhere near as strictly guarded as other countries, this prospect caused
enough panic that a negotiation was ironed out to keep an open border between Ireland
and the UK. But the strong support for the EU in Northern Ireland has led many
moderates in the region to wonder if the time is right to open the issue of reuniting the
two countries - with a 2022 poll showing a slim margin in favor of reuniting within twenty years.
Will all these happen? Unlikely. But they could - and the results would be catastrophic for England.
An image of the Brexit vote results shows that
England was largely on its own in its strong support for leaving.
That means that a majority of the UK’s land-space was strongly against the decision
England made - and all of them are considering breaking away. If independence movements took off,
England could find itself losing half of its land space, many of its resources,
and much of its global prestige. All three nations would likely seek to join the EU,
England would lose access to Ireland, and would have to negotiate with the other countries for
imports of the goods it used to own. It would be a massive black eye for the country that used to
rule much of the world - not even being able to hold on to its own constituent countries.
Which raises the question - is there any way back?
To say some people in the UK have buyers’ remorse over Brexit would be putting it
lightly. They lost a lot more than they expected, and the benefits they were
promised didn’t really manifest. While many called for finding a way to halt the process,
the ruling Tories were strongly in favor of moving ahead and the current Labour leader
at the time was Brexit-ambivalent at best - being opposed to NATO. And once it went ahead,
there was no going back. It looked like the Brexit status quo was here to stay - for good or bad.
But there might be another route back.
By October 2022, a poll showed that Britons favored rejoining the EU by a whopping 14-point
margin. And while the heavy favorite to be PM after the next election, Labour leader Kier
Starmer, has not yet called for reversing Brexit, he’s considered to be favorable towards the EU.
That might mean that the UK could eventually find a bipartisan agreement on the issue.
But they might have to do it the hard way.
No country has ever left the EU and then rejoined it, and there is no bylaw for “Take backsies”. So,
the easiest way for the UK to get back in would be…asking to rejoin
and then going through the whole process of applying, having its application reviewed,
and then approved or denied. It would likely be a multi-year process. And they’re not the only ones
asking to join - many countries in eastern Europe, like Bosnia and Herzegovina and the under-attack
Ukraine, are seeking to join as well. So the UK might have to go to the back of the line.
Something they’re well used to given all the lines Brexit has caused!
But it may be the best of bad alternatives. Right now, the UK is living with the fallout of Brexit,
which includes import and export problems, empty shelves at supermarkets, a shrinking economy,
poorer diplomatic relations with its neighbors, stricter border controls,
and decreased opportunity for travel and business. In the long run, it could even
undermine their bond with their constituent countries, and could result in Scotland,
Wales, and Northern Ireland going their own way - possibly back to the EU.
This means that the UK might be looking for the escape hatch on
the Brexit experiment sooner rather than later.
Want to know just how powerful Great Britain used to be? Check out “How
England Managed to Invade 90% of the World”, or check out “Regular Things
That Are Illegal in the United Kingdom” for the lighter side of life in the UK!