What’s the future of AI and humans? Can humanity realistically coexist with artificial
superintelligence peacefully? If so, what might that future look like and how do we ensure it’s
brought about starting today? This video will attempt to paint a picture, called The Forest
Scenerio, of how all of humanity, not just a few people, could coexist with artificial
superintelligence or ASI and benefit from its creation. But first, before I dive into you might
be wondering why even bother to think about these questions now. After all, according to various
surveys, experts are divided about when artificial general intelligence AGI. and ASI will come about.
Many experts claim that it will be impossible to predict what happens if and when it does arrive
claiming a so-called technological singularity will occur. We all need not plan or think really
about the arrival ASI, since it’s impossible to predict what will happen. However, I,
and I think many people who work in AI, believe that it’s crucial to begin planning today for
the arrival of AGI and ASI for a few reasons. First, there's good reason to think that ASI will
surely exist at some point, and its invention will probably be the most significant event in
human history. ASI could bring about a utopia of sorts alleviating much of human suffering,
it could cause the annihilation of the species on purpose or by accident, or something much worse.
Next, there’s good reason to think AGI will arrive far sooner than many think. Sure, today’s AI isn’t
close to human-level intelligence yet, but technology continues to improve exponentially
every few years, and thus, AI systems as well. Some experts predict AGI could exist as soon as
the next few years. AGI systems could quickly self-improve, giving way to an intelligence
explosion, and thus superintelligence systems. So, this isn’t some far future
science-fiction type scenario thousands of years away that won’t affect anyone alive now. Again,
there's debate about when this could happen, but many experts think it will be within this century,
probably within your lifetime. Also, people are already planning for the arrival of ASI and how
it can benefit them. These individuals include corporations, governments, and other entities
whose overarching goals aren’t necessarily improving the well-being of humanity. Some people
within the corporation may genuinely want the best for all people, but the main overarching goal of
the entity is the increase quarterly profits or the maintenance of control and power of citizens.
Finally, once AGI or ASI arrives it may be too late to shut it down or stop it. For example,
whoever was planning for its arrival could use the technology to thwart any attempts to shut it down,
or it may become so intelligent so fast it’s not possible to shut it off,
or it may be unethical to shut it down because humanity so reliant on AI systems.
Computing power and technological progress appears to be progressing exponentially,
so by the time AGI is here, it’s probably too late to turn the power button off and devise a plan.
Today, we plan for almost everything in our lives, from our wedding,
to education, to where we’re going to eat for dinner. So why not do a little
planning for the most important moment in the history of humanity potentially?
Now, I totally get the singularity-esq arguments. Yes, it’s difficult to predict how AGI,
let alone ASI, will affect humanity. No one knows exactly what the future of AI and civilization is
going to look like exactly. But, I think it’s important to come up with a general idea of
what an ideal future may look realistically look like and make the necessary laws, regulations,
today etc. to help realize that future. Yes, it will require using some imagination,
a term many scientists and intellectuals laugh at. But isn’t creativity and imagination one
of the uniquely human traits that got us to dominate the planet and bring about ASI anyway?
I think AI development is sort of like shooting a cannon from a distance and hoping it will land on
a small target hundreds of yards away. The target, being a future where all of humanity live in
harmony with ASI. Outside the target, is probably annihilation of the specifies or worse. So,
it will be difficult to land on the target, but shouldn’t we aim the cannon in the right direction
and at least try it? Maybe more importantly, decide what the target is in the first place.
Ok, so what does the future of AI and humanity look like? Well, the most realistic
scenario is one where ASI and humanity aren’t compatible, aka annihilation of the human race.
But, there have already been so many doomsday papers and videos about AI How about coming up
with a somewhat realistic scenario where humans coexist with ASI and flourish alongside it? Is
such a thing even possible? So there have been many scenarios theoretically about how
ASI and humanity can coexist.I’ve looked into many of them, and personally I think
almost all of them are very unrealistic. Just imagine a world where some people have access
to superintelligent systems and are free to do whatever they want with them. We’re talking about
something thousands of times more intelligent and capable than all human intelligence combined.
There are so many scenarios where things can go drastically off the rails in seconds really.
The only way humans can probably coexist with ASI and remain human, that’s a big part of it,
is something called ‘The Forest Scenario’; let me try to paint a picture of what this will be. Then,
I’ll go over why a popular proposed scenario, AI-human merger, probably isn’t a good idea.
ASI will function similarly to how forests coexist with humans, especially early humans. So first
off, forests are decentralized for the most part. No one owns all the forests in the world and can
just turn them on and off at will and no one can decide that we’re going to eradicate all forests
tomorrow or is capable of it. Yet, everyone in humanity benefits for no cost. No one gets to
own the ASI or has to pay for it, yet everyone gets to reap the rewards of the ASI just for
being a human. ASI would be self-sustaining and self-improving similar to forests. So
you could contribute to the ASI system if you want like if you plant a flower in a forest,
but it's not really necessary because ASI would be a self-sustaining ecosystem.
It would maintain and improve itself without any human intervention or help.
Almost all human needs would be met by it. Forests help provide humans, especially early humans, with
necessities of life like shelter, food, safety, etc. ASI would help every person meet the needs
required to have a high quality of life, including shelter, food, and even things like companionship,
socialization, meaning, etc. It would work to optimize and maximize for human well-being while
still helping people remain human and in reality. So, we are not talking about connecting each human
to a Robert Nozak Esq. ‘experience machine’. ASI may not try to make life too perfect for
humanity, however, because that may would lead to a state of nihilism with no meaning or purpose.
So, it may manufacture drama or problems for people to solve and feel significant
to some extent. There will probably never be any perfect utopia because a true utopia for humanity
would be a type of inescapable dystopia probably. It would work in the background, meaning ASI would
be everywhere but feel like it’s nowhere. Forests are everywhere,
but unless you’re a park ranger, no one cares. It would work 24-7, but no one thinks about it. Some
people may wonder if it exists at times. People would be fully dependent on it for
survival, just like we are with the forests of the world. I can’t think of any remotely
realistic scenario where humans aren’t fully dependent on ASI. Anyone can manufacture
ASI weapons, so there needs to be a blanket defensive-based ASI ecosystem already in place.
ASI would be alive like a forest, but not many people would care or give it human-like rights.
Trees are living things, but no one cares when one or part of one gets cut down. So,
many futurists seem to anthropomorphize AI too much. In movies, we often depict
aliens or future AI as almost human beings themselves. If it coexists with humanity,
ASI wouldn’t have an identity or ego like a human would, yet it would be
a living thing. A living ecosystem, in a way, in which humans coexist peacefully.
Like forests, it would provide protection and shelter. ASI would primarily be defensive in
nature, protecting humanity from disasters and other AI that would cause harm to people.
If you attacked it or other people, even with a superintelligence weapon, no one would care that
much, including the thing itself, and everything would go on as if your attack on it was pointless.
So obviously, it wouldn’t literally be like a forest,
and this is just a metaphor to help wrap people’s minds around this concept.
Now, what about people merging with technology and ASI itself? Kurtzweil, Musk, many people think
this is how humans will survive the threat of AI, is to become the ASI. So, merging with technology
is already happening, there are things like pacemakers that save lives and will continue
to be important in a way to preventing disease, fixing genetic disorders, helping
eliminate extreme cognitive biases in particular individuals that may be hurting themselves and
others, etc. However, I don’t think attempting to integrate AI into the human brain fully is a good
plan or even a realistic one. First, ASI could arrive on the scene far before hardware that
integrates with people’s brains comes along that could support it. Drastically changing the human
brain and body may not increase human well-being, but may make life more miserable for people. And,
fully merging with ASI will most likely cause annihilation of humanity as people will cease
to be people really. Fully merging with AI will probably destroy the desire for human-based
activities and values, and cause people to become more machine than human. We would transfer from
humanism to dataism. Dataism being a way of life in which one functions more like a machine,
or a tree, focusing on gathering data rather than pursuing humanistic goals and values.
So, I think there will be cyborgs and people who wish to enhance themselves with potentially
superhuman-level IQs and abilities the same way some humans use technology to improve
certain aspects of their mind and body today. Take extreme bodybuilders, for example. But,
similar to extreme bodybuilding, advanced transhumanism is not going to be a big deal
or that popular possibly. After all, superintelligence already provides humans
with needs for a life with high-wellbeing, so no one is going to care if you can do advanced
math like a calculator, or can run thousands of miles in seconds. It probably will be strange
to most of society and extreme imbalance could lead to a worse quality of life.
I think science and data will show that human well-being and having a high-quality life,
doesn’t require you to be superintelligent or extend the mind and body in unnatural directions.
In a way, ASI will be like a God that optimizes human well-being. Unlike the anthropomorphized
Gods humanity has invented, only this God won’t have an ego or be considered an individual. Of
course, it wouldn’t be supernatural and will be bound by the laws of physics,
whatever the ASI discovers they extend to. Also, unlike the Gods of the past,
this one would actually work to optimize for human eudaimonia and stop things like
genetic disorders and childhood cancer for all individuals. However, similar to humanity's Gods,
we may not even know it’s there at times, and some may question its existence.
Now, I may be totally wrong, but the point of this video is to start coming up with at least
a somewhat realistic scenario that everyone benefits from and plan for how this AI stuff
is going to play out. Suppose the majority of the population agrees we need a decentralized
ASI that helps everyone’s lives flourish, for example. In that case, we can begin
writing the laws today to make sure it happens the best we can. Yes, it’s like shooting a canon
ball at a small target 300 yards away. It’s not easy, but at least pointing the cannon in the
right direction can help a lot. The alternative is just to do nothing and let a small number of
people shape the future of humanity and ASI the way they want. That could go wrong for
majority of people and without enough critical feedback, could go disastrously wrong for all.
Here are some quick examples of laws and regulations that could be passed this year:
When AGI is created, a law is passed that requires the company to relinquish control
of it or work to make it decentralized as it’s being coded. Any time an AI system is created,
after rigorous testing by developers, the code could be made open source for everyone
to use. AI-attacking weapons should be banned, and countries only work on defensive-based AI weapons.
Perhaps a treaty could be signed that allows countries to continue to work on AI weapons that
protect the country, but are almost exclusively defensive in nature, so defensive AGI arrives on
the scene first before an ultra-smart attacking weapons. We could make it illegal to attempt
to code an ‘ego’ or ‘identity’ into an AI system to make it human-like,
and many more examples. These are just a few quick examples that popped into my head,
the point being there’s a lot that can be done right now to make your life much better.
OK so there’s way more to this idea, and if anyone actually comments or views this maybe I’ll make a
follow-up video going over more specifics so let me know any questions or comments.