PLEASE WELCOME MICHAEL LEWIS!
( CHEERS AND APPLAUSE ) ♪
>> Stephen: NICE TO SEE YOU.
GOOD TOO SEE YOU.
PLEASURE TO BE BACK.
>> Stephen: HAPPY TO HAVE YOU HERE.
YOU'RE ONE TO HAVE THE BEST EXPLAINERS IN THE WORLD.
I NEED SOMETHING EXPLAINED TO ME, YOU'RE THE PERSON I WANT TO
HAVE TO DO IT.
EXPLAIN SOMETHING TO ME IF YOU DON'T MIND.
STOCK MARKET CLOSED AT AN ALL-TIME HIGH, 19,216 AND SOME
CHANGE, OKAY?
PEOPLE ARE TALKING ABOUT A TRUMP BUMP.
WHY AND WHAT IS IT?
DO YOU HAVE ANY THESE ARE?
>> I'VE GIVEN THIS A SHOT BUT -- >> Stephen: PEOPLE WERE AFRAID
IT WOULD DUMP BUT THERE IS BEEN A BUMP.
>> AND NOBODY KNEW IT WAS GOING TO HAPPEN, RIGHT?
SO ONE OF THE THINGS MY BOOK IS ABOUT -- NOT TO GET TO MY BOOK
RIGHT AWAY.
WE'LL COME BACK TO IT, I KNOW.
>> Stephen: WE'LL JUST GET TO IT.
IT'S CALLED "THE UNDOING PROJECT."
( CHEERS AND APPLAUSE ) >> I WASN'T TRYING TO PLUG THE
BOOK, BUT ACTUALLY -- >> Stephen: I WANT TO PLUG THE
BOOK.
>> -- ONE OF THE THINGS IT'S ABOUT IS THE WAY PEOPLE EXPLAIN
WHAT THEY COULDN'T PREDICT.
SO NOBODY SAW THIS COMING.
NOBODY SAW THE STOCK MARKET GOING UP A THOUSAND POINTS, BUT
THE SAME PEOPLE WHO DIDN'T SEE IT COMING WILL TELL YOU EXACTLY
WHY IT WAS INEVITABLE.
SO THEY CAN NOW EXPLAIN IT BECAUSE THEY DON'T WANT TO LOOK
LIKE FOOLS.
THE SAME PEOPLE WHO ARE EXPLAINING WHY, OH, YES, IT WAS
GOING TO GO UP A THOUSAND POINTS, IF IT CRASHED TOMORROW
WOULD ALSO HAVE AN EXPLANATION OF WHY THAT WAS INEVITABLE.
>> Stephen: SO WE DON'T NEED AN ECONOMIC MODEL, WE NEED A
TIME MACHINE.
>> WHAT YOU NEED IS NOT TO SPEND MUCH ATTENTION LISTENING TO
PEOPLE WHO ARE TRYING TO EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY THE STOCK MARKET WENT
UP OR DOWN BECAUSE THEY DON'T KNOW.
>> Stephen: EXPLAIN SOMETHING TO ME.
THE "THE UNDOING PROJECT" BOOK.
>> YES.
>> Stephen: WHAT WAS UNDONE IN THE UNDOING PROJECT AND WHO DID
IT?
WHO UNDID IT?
>> SO THERE ARE A COUPLE OF THINGS HERE.
SO THE BOOK IS ABOUT -- THIS IS A CONVERSATION STOPPER.
TWO ISRAELI PSYCHOLOGISTS.
>> Stephen: WALK INTO A BAR -- YEAH, YEAH, RIGHT.
( LAUGHTER ) SO AMOS TVERSKY AND DANIEL
KAHNEMAN -- KAHNEMAN WON THE NOBEL PRIZE IN ECONOMICS BUT
THEY'RE BOTH PSYCHOLOGISTS AND AMOS TVERSKY DIED IN 1996, BUT
THEY DIED ABOUT A LOVE AFFAIR, THEY WERE ENGAGED IN EXPLORING
HOW THE HUMAN MIND WORKED WHEN MAKING JUDGMENTS AND DECISIONS
IN AN UNEMOTIONAL STATE.
WHEN PEOPLE THOUGHT THEY WERE BEING RATIONAL, WHAT WERE THEY
DOING?
THE UNDOING PROJECT ITSELF WAS THE PROJECT THEY WERE WORKING ON
WHEN THE LOVE AFFAIR BUSTED UP.
IT WAS THEIR NAME FOR THE PROJECT.
SPECIFICALLY WHAT THEY WERE LOOKING AT AT THE TIME, THEY
WERE TRYING TO DELINEATE THE RULES OF THE HUMAN IMAGINATION,
AND THE WAY THEY WERE GETTING AT IT WAS LOOKING AT THE WAY PEOPLE
UNDID A TRAGEDY.
DANIEL KAHNEMAN, ONE OF THE CHARACTERS --
>> Stephen: HOW THEY DEALT WITH THE EMOTION OF THE TRAGEDY?
>> THEY SAY, IN A WAY, IT STARTS WITH DANIEL KAHNEMAN'S NEPHEW,
TWO DAYS AWAY FROM BEING RELEASED FROM THE ISRAELI AIR
FORCE FLYING UPSIDE DOWN AND BEING KILLED.
DANNY NOTICES EVERYBODY SAYING IF ONLY, IF ONLY HE HAD BEEN
RELEASED TWO DAYS EARLIER.
IF ONLY THE FLARE HADN'T GONE UP AND BLINDED HIM.
BUT THEY DIDN'T SAY, IF ONLY THERE WASN'T AN ISRAELI AIR
FORCE.
THERE WERE PARTICULAR WAYS THEY UNDID THE TRAGEDY.
HE THOUGHT THE WAY PEOPLE UNDO TRAGEDIES MIGHT BE THE WAY TO
EXPLORE HOW THE HUMAN IMAGINATION WORKS AND HOW IT
CREATES OTHER REALITIES.
SO HOW DO YOU UNDO THE MOST RECENT PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION?
YOU SAW THIS HAPPENING AFTER THE ELECTION.
IF ONLY COMEY HADN'T RELEASED THE E-MAILS.
NOBODY SAID IF ONLY TRUMP WAS BORN A GIRL.
THAT WOULD HAVE DONE IT.
I MEAN -- RIGHT?
( CHEERS AND APPLAUSE ) >> Stephen: WOULD HAVE BEEN
THE BEST, THOUGH.
WOULD HAVE BEEN BEAUTIFUL.
>> IT WOULD HAVE BEEN BEAUTIFUL.
>> Stephen: A TEN.
A TEN.
>> HUGE!
>> Stephen: YUGE.
YEAH, WOULD HAVE BEEN YUGE.
>> Stephen: SO WHAT DOES THAT SAY ABOUT HOW WE DEAL?
>> SO THAT'S THE NARROW ANSWER.
THEY WERE WORKING TO TRY TO FIGURE OUT THE TWAY HUMAN
IMAGINATION CREATED ALTERNATIVE REALITIES.
THEY NEVER FINISHED THE WORK.
WHAT THEY WERE DOING MORE BROADLY, THE REASON I SEIZED
UPON IT IT AS A BOOK TITLE, IS THEY WERE UNDOING THE HUMAN
NATURE THAT WE WERE BASICALLY GOOD AND RATIONAL IN OUR
CHOICES.
>> Stephen: SO WE'RE NOT RATIONAL.
>> NO, WE'RE NOT.
>> Stephen: CAN WE BECOME RATIONAL?
OR IS THAT EVEN A GOOD GOAL?
>> NO, IT'S INTERESTING.
THEY WERE SAYING THAT -- I THINK THEIR WORK SHOWS, SOMETHING VERY
DEEP ABOUT HUMAN NATURE.
THEY'RE WIRED FOR CERTAIN KINDS OF INFALLIBILITY AND
RATIONALITIES.
WE CAN CHECK OURSELVES.
WE CAN FIND WAYS TO SORT OF GOVERN OUR INTELLECTS, BUT WE
WILL MAKE MISTAKES, SYSTEMATICALLY, NOT JUST ONE-OFF
MISTAKES, SO THAT, AS A RESULT, MARKETS CAN MAKE MISTAKES,
ELECTIONS CAN GET SCREWED UP.
THEY WERE POINTING AT THE WAY THE HUMAN MIND LEADS ITSELF
ASTRAY IN THE SAME WAY THAT, SAY, THEIR OPTICAL ILLUSIONS
THEY WERE DESCRIBING COGNITIVE ILLUSIONS, THE WAY PEOPLE'S
MINDS -- >> Stephen: CAN COMPUTERS HELP
US MAKE A RATIONAL DECISION OR IS THAT A MISTAKE BECAUSE THE
ROBOTS WILL RAISE UP AND ENSLAVE US?
>> THEY MAY BE GENTLE MASTERS ( LAUGHTER )
>> Stephen: GOD, I HOPE SO.
IT ISN'T NECESSARILY A DARK OUTCOME.
>> Stephen: MICHAEL, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR BEING HERE.
"THE UNDOING PROJECT" IN STORES TOMORROW.
MICHAEL LEWIS, EVERYBODY! WE'LL BE RIGHT BACK!