>> FINGERS CROSSED. >> YOU TOO.
>> THE ECONOMY ENDING THE YEAR
ON A STRONG NOTE.
STOCKS NEAR RECORD HIGHS.
THE FEDERAL RESERVE SLASHED
RATES DURING THE YEAR TO SAVE ON
THE CHINA TRADE DEAL READY TO BE
SIGNED.
SIGNED. WE HAVE NAFTA 2.0.
THESE ARE PRETTY BIG
ACCOMPLISHMENTS FROM PRESIDENT
TRUMP.
TRUMP. WHAT DOES THAT MEAN GOING INTO
2020?
2020? MY FRIEND TO TALK ALL THINGS
ECONOMY.
ECONOMY. ALI, IF WE TAKE A LOOK AT IT,
LOOK, THE ECONOMY IS PRETTY
GOOD, RIGHT?
GOOD, RIGHT? GDP AROUND 2%.
UNEMPLOYMENT AROUND 4%.
>> YEAH.
>> YEAH. 3.5% UNEMPLOYMENT.
3.5% UNEMPLOYMENT. >> IT LOOKS PRETTY GOOD.
>> YOU AND I WERE TALKING ABOUT
THIS EARLIER ON MSNBC AND
SOMEBODY TWEETED US AND SAID 93%
OF AMERICANS DON’T LOOK AT THE
STOCK MARKET AND SAY WOW LOOK AT
MY PORTFOLIO.
MY PORTFOLIO. >> IT’S LIKE A VOICE.
>> 40 SOME ODD PERCENT OF
AMERICANS OWN STOCKS AND THE
STOCK MARKET IS UP 28% YEAR TO
DATE, RIGHT?
DATE, RIGHT? IT’S A VERY, VERY BIG GAIN.
SO ACTUALLY ABOUT HALF OF -- IF
YOUR MONEY IS IN THE STOCK
MARKET AND IN SOMETHING THAT
LOOKS LIKE THE S&P 500 YOU DID
ACTUALLY DO VERY WELL ON THE
STOCK MARKET.
STOCK MARKET. HERE’S THE REST OF IT.
3.5% UNMOMENT SHOULD MEAN THAT
EVERYBODY CAN GO TO THEIR BOSS
AND ASK FOR A RAISE BECAUSE
THEY’RE SHORT OF WORKERS.
THAT DIDN’T MATERIALIZE ACROSS
THE BOARD.
THE BOARD. 2% GDP GROWTH IS ABSTRACT TO
PEOPLE.
PEOPLE. THEY DIDN’T KNOW WHAT THAT
MEANS.
MEANS. SO THE STOCK MARKET AND WAGES
ARE THE VALUE OF YOUR HOUSE.
THOSE ARE THE ONLY PLACES WHERE
IT MATERIALIZES AND YOU HAVE A
HOUSE IF YOU HAVE MONEY.
IF YOU ARE A HIGHER EARNING WAGE
EARNER YOU HAVE DONE WELL IN THE
LAST TWO YEARS.
WHERE WE’RE STUCK IS IN THAT
MIDDLE CLASS TO LOWER.
THERE’S STILL PEOPLE IN THIS
COUNTRY EARNING $7.25 AN HOUR
AND THERE’S STILL PEOPLE
HOMELESS AND STILL PEOPLE FOOD
INSECURE SO THERE’S SOMETHING
WEIRD ABOUT IT.
IF YOU WERE LOOKING AT ALL THE
ECONOMIC NUMBERS YOU’D SAY IT’S
GREAT.
GREAT. >> THINGS ARE GOOD, RIGHT?
>> JUST NOT PROPERLY DISTRIBUTED
DISTRIBUTED.
DISTRIBUTED. >> COULD WE SEE HIM SAYING THE
ECONOMY IS GREAT, THE ECONOMY IS
GREAT.
GREAT. THE DEMOCRATS WILL SAY WAIT A
SECOND.
SECOND. >> IT’S GOING TO BE THE SAME
PROBLEM THAT BARRACK OBAMA
FACED.
FACED. IT’S GOING TO BE THE SAME
PROBLEM THAT THE DEMOCRATIC
CANDIDATES FACED EXCEPT THEY’RE
TALKING ABOUT UNIVERSAL HEALTH
CARE AND HIGHER MINIMUM WAGE.
DONALD TRUMP WENT TO OHIO AND
SAID DON’T SELL YOUR HOMES.
WELL EVERYBODY THAT DIDN’T SELL
THEIR HOMES PROBABLY HAS A HOME
WORTH LESS NOW.
COAL MINING JOBS DIDN’T COME
BACK.
BACK. SO THE CHALLENGE IS GOING TO BE
FOR THOSE PEOPLE, TENS OF
MILLIONS OF PEOPLE LOOKING AT
THE REMARKABLE STOCK MARKET.
WE HAVE TWO NEW RECORDS ON
TODAY.
TODAY. BUT GENERALLY SPEAKING WE HAVE A
RECORD BREAKING STOCK MARKET.
THEY’RE LOOKING AT GDP GROWTH
AND LOW UNEMPLOYMENT AND SAYING
WHAT HAPPENED TO ME?
I’VE BEEN TEN YEARS INTO AN
ECONOMIC EXPANSION.
ECONOMIC EXPANSION. WE HAD THAT FOR TEN YEARS.
>> LET’S TALK ABOUT THAT.
YOU AND I ALSO TALKED ABOUT
THIS.
THIS. I LOOKED AT YOU AND I SAID WE
KNOW THAT THE NEXT YEAR IS 2020
BUT SOMETHING IN MY BRAIN WAS
LIKE WOW, A WHOLE DECADE IS
COMING TO AN END AND A WHOLE
DECADE WITHOUT A RECESSION.
>> CORRECT.
>> CORRECT. >> THAT’S GREAT BUT THEN PEOPLE
STARTED TO THINK WELL WHAT DOES
THAT MEAN.
THAT MEAN. >> I WOULD HAVE TO SAY THIS.
I THINK ONE ALWAYS COMES.
>> THEY DON’T ALL HAVE TO BE
LIKE THE LAST ONE.
LOTS OF THINGS COMPLICATED IT
AND MAYBE THEY DO A JUNGLE
VARIETY RECESSION.
VARIETY RECESSION. WE DON’T HAVE TO DO THAT.
BUT ONE OF THE THINGS THAT
HAPPENED IS CENTRAL BANKS THAT
LASTED WELL LAST TIME AROUND
THEY CAN LOWER RATES AND
STIMULATE THE ECONOMY BUT THE
PROBLEM IS THAT TRUMP HAS BEEN
PUTTING THEM ON IT ALL YEAR AND
THEY HAVE BEEN DOING THAT.
IT HASN’T HURT THE ECONOMY.
IT PROBABLY HELPED THE ECONOMY
BUT THAT’S THE FUEL IN THE TANK
FOR CENTRAL BANKS.
>> CORRECT.
>> CORRECT. AND IF YOU HAVE NO FUEL IN YOUR
TANK WHEN A RECESSION COMES
THAT’S SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT
OVER THE COURSE OF THE YEAR.
>> WE’RE WAITING TO SEE IF THEY
SIGN THAT IN JANUARY.
NOW WE HAVE PHASE ONEISH WITH
CHINA SO IT’S PROBABLY NOT GOING
TO GET WORSE BUT FOR PEOPLE
LOOKING AT OUR TRADE ISSUES WITH
CHINA, WE HAVEN’T IMPROVED ON
ANYTHING.
ANYTHING. WE ARE JUST NOT IN THE WAR SO IT
MAKES PEOPLE FEEL BETTER AND I
THIS I THAT THE PRESIDENT AND
THEY’LL SAY WE LIKE IT BETTER
WHEN WE’RE NOT IN A TRADE WAR.
>> I HATE TO BE THE PERSON THAT
SAYS ARE THEY A PROBLEM.
BUT IF WE HAVE GOTTEN IT OUT OF
THE WAY.
THE WAY. IF WE HAVE GOTTEN THE NAFTA
PROBLEM OUT OF THE WAY.
IF WE HAVE PEOPLE THAT LIKE TO
SEE THAT LAST YEAR, DOES THAT
MEAN AS WE HEAD INTO 2020 WE
DON’T HAVE THESE EVENTS OR THESE
THINGS TO LOOK FORWARD TO THAT
MIGHT GIVE THE ECONOMY A BOOST?
>> I HAVE NEVER IN 25 YEAR
CAREER BEING ABLE TO ADEQUATELY
PREDICT WHAT THE NEXT BAD THING
IS GOING TO HAPPEN ECONOMICALLY
SOMETIMES.
SOMETIMES. >> SOMETIMES IT’S EVENT DRIVEN
AND SOMETIMES IT’S JUST THE
CYCLE AND WE HAVE NOT FIGURED
OUT -- THE SMARTEST ECONOMIC
MINDS HAVE NOT FIGURED OUT HOW
WE CREATE A WORLD IN WHICH WE
DON’T HAVE UPS AND DOWNS.
I’D SAY THIS.
WE’RE ON A WAVE.
IT’S GOING ON RIGHT NOW.
WE SHOULD TRY TO ENJOY IT AND WE
SHOULD TRY TO HOPE THAT ALL OF
THOSE PEOPLE NOT CAUGHT UP IN
THAT WAVE SOMEHOW TRY TO
PARTICIPATE IN THAT BUT BE
PREPARED FOR THINGS TO HAPPEN.
ECONOMIC EXPANSIONS THAT ARE TEN
YEARS OLD AND LONG IN THE TOOTH
THEY CAN’T CRUMBLE.
THOSE BECOME TOUGH DECISIONS.
DO I THINK THERE’S ANYTHING
TODAY THAT SAYS THERE’S
SOMETHING IMPENDING THAT’S GOING
TO BE DANGEROUS FOR THEM AS AN
INVESTOR.