Over the last century, Germany has had one of the best football teams in the world.
They’ve won four World Cups, three European Championships
and produced some of the greatest players the world has ever seen.
And yet, after nearly a decade of underachievement, they are currently
ranked only 15th-best in the world. Below Switzerland, Morocco, the USA and Mexico.
And, in September 2023, they sacked a head-coach for the first time in their history.
So, what’s gone for Germany? And how did this happen?
First, let’s quantify that downturn. Since winning the World Cup in 2014,
Germany lost in the semi-finals of Euro 2016 and were then eliminated in the group stage of
the 2018 World Cup. Historically, that was their worst performance at a World Cup. Then, at the
2020 European Championship they were comfortably defeated by England in the quarter finals before,
most recently, suffering another group stage elimination at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar.
Head-coach Hansi Flick would survive for almost another year, but was dismissed after a surprising
4-1 loss to Japan. Leaving Germany 15th in the world, a ranking that would have been unthinkable
back in 2014, after they had won their fourth World Cup, a total only surpassed by Brazil.
There is no single reason that explains what has happened. Instead, a range of factors are
to blame, both on and off the pitch. Some of them were unavoidable. Others definitely were not.
Starting with the team itself, players have been a problem.
The 2014 had two significant strengths. The first was a spine of hugely experienced players
that ran right through the side. Manuel Neuer in goal, Mats Hummels,
Jerome Boateng, Philipp Lahm, Benedikt Howedes, Per Mertesacker in defence,
Bastian Schweinsteiger, Sami Khedira and Mesut Ozil in midfield, and Thomas Muller,
Miroslav Klose and Lukas Podolski in attack.
At the same time, that group was complemented by emerging world class players. Mario Gotze
was just 22 in 2014, Andre Schurrle was 23, and Toni Kroos was 24.
Over time, two issues developed. The first was that members of that core aged and retired. The
second was that while Germany remained proficient at producing skilled, multi-positional players,
it failed to restock its specialist roles – in particular in defence and at centre-forward.
That shows in the present day. The current squad is blessed with technical players in
the more fluid positions – such as the centre of midfield and wide-forward – but lacks quality
and depth at centre-back and full-back, and is without a world-class, goalscoring No.9.
The group of defenders taken to the Qatar 2022 describes that problem well. In addition to which,
Hansi Flick’s constant experimentation with different full-backs became almost
a running joke among supporters. More broadly, the issue of succession
has been extremely difficult – and not just because of thosesupply issues.
Joachim Low was the architect of the 2014 World Cup win, but he would not step down until 2021,
continuing despite the early exit at the 2018 World Cup. 15 years is
a long time to coach any international team. During those years, there were also botched
attempts at renewal. In 2019, Low announced unilaterally that he was retiring Mats Hummels,
Jerome Boateng and Thomas Muller from the international squad. It was not a popular move
and the players, Hummels in particular, took great issue with how that decision was communicated. He
and Muller would eventually return to the squad, but the episode was symptomatic of how Low and
the DFB struggled to transition between eras. Complicating those issues were events off the
field. In the aftermath of the 2014 World Cup win, the DFB embraced the commercial
opportunities that came with their success. The national team was rebranded as “Die Mannschaft”
and while the slogan was impactful abroad, in Germany it was never popular within a
football culture that values authenticity and is highly suspicious of commercialism.
The inner workings of the organisation itself have not been helpful either. German football’s
Football Association endured two separate tax scandals in the decade following the
World Cup. Two of its presidents also resigned: Wolfgang Niersbach in 2015,
following a corruption scandal relating to Germany’s hosting of the 2006 World Cup. And
Reinhard Grindel in 2019, amid allegations of undeclared earnings and growing unpopularity.
Grindel was also the president criticized by Mesut Ozil following his premature international
retirement in 2018. In a statement, Ozil accused the DFB of turning him into a
scapegoat and of disrespecting his Turkish roots. The effect of these issues on the team is hard to
accurately calculate. The disconnect between the German public and its football team is less so.
While the furious reaction at home to the side’s failure to wear the One Love armband at Qatar
2022 was significant, as was the 64% drop in the domestic TV audience for the team’s games
in 2022 from the 2018 tournament, they were just stronger symptoms of an existing mood.
Philosophically, a culture war is also being fought – between those who support the more
traditional, hard-working German playing style of the 1970s, 80s, and 90s and the more technical
form that has taken its place. In July 2023, Bastian Schweinsteiger characterised the issue.
"When Pep Guardiola joined Bayern Munich”, Schweinsteiger said, “everyone believed we have to
play this kind of football, like short passes and everything. We were kind of losing our values,"
"I think most of the other countries were looking at Germany as a fighter,
we can run until the end and everything. The strengths got lost through the last seven, eight
years. We forgot about that and were more focused on playing the ball nicely to each other."
They are difficult claims to quantity. Whatever the case, though, the argument
will continue, as will the disagreement over what is wrong with the German national team or
even what needs to be done to fix it. That will run until the European Championship of 2024,
which will be held in Germany, in front of a football public eager not to be embarrassed.