SHARMINI PERIES: Welcome to the Real News Network. I'm Sharmini Peries coming to you
from Baltimore.
Over a year of fighting in Yemen between the Houthi rebels and the government forces has
killed about 6,000 people, and internally displaced over 365,000 people. Amid deteriorating
health conditions and shortages in supplies, a seven-day ceasefire was called for by the
Saudi-led forces, and it took effect on Tuesday. This comes after Saudi-led air strikes killed
19 Yemeni civilians just days before. Yemen's warring parties are holding closed door talks
in Switzerland, where they agreed on Wednesday to exchange hundreds of prisoners in an effort
to move forward with the talks. Let's have a look at what the UN special envoy for Yemen,
Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmed, had to say.
ISMAIL OULD CHEIKH AHMED: I have been strongly encouraging the parties to work on confidence-building
measures, including implementing a ceasefire, the releasing of prisoners, and facilitating
the delivery of humanitarian supplies, that would constitute positive steps, and therefore
to lessen tensions and ease the path to a peaceful settlement to the conflict in Yemen.
PERIES: Now joining us from London to discuss all of this is Bilal Ahmed. Bilal is an associate
editor of Souciant.com. He's also a Ph.D. student at SOAS at the University of London.
Bilal, good to have you back on the Real News.
BILAL AHMED: It's good to be here.
PERIES: So Bilal, as I said in the intro, almost 6,000 people have been killed, and
so many, 365,000 people displaced according to the UN. And 80 percent of Yemen's population
is in need of basic humanitarian aid and supplies. So it's obvious that the ceasefire is coming
at this time, obviously, to help the people displaced. But politically, what's really
going on?
AHMED: Well, I think that what we need to reflect on is the fact that the White House
is probably putting quite a lot of pressure on the Saudi government to resolve this issue,
given the fact that the civil war has provided a vacuum in which groups like Islamic State
as well as Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula can assert themselves in Yemen. The White
House's primary concern in Yemen has always been about terrorism and countering terrorist
groups in the country. And this has always outweighed its concerns for the Yemeni political
situation in terms of substantive democracy.
And I think this is the main thing that is going on, and I think this continues to be
its primary guidance in diplomatic pressure for the Saudi-led coalition. And it is dominantly
Saudi Arabia to resolve this issue, and I think that a large part of what's going on
is that these various forces have just come to a head. And I think there, we need to pay
attention to the fact that there has been indications of diplomatic pushes for solutions
to conflicts in Libya and Syria as well. Syria is now incorporating something of an overt
armed intervention from numerous coalition forces. So as a result of that you probably
have a regionwide push for a resolution to many of these issues that are rooted in armed
conflicts that resulted after the beginning of the Arab Spring.
PERIES: Now, do we have any evidence of the IS's infiltration into Yemen?
AHMED: There is evidence that--well, it some extent has been posting attacks recently.
I think, personally I think part of what's happening is that the U.S.-led drone strikes
program has resulted in a situation where many al-Qaeda fighters are still able to assert
themselves within the country. But however, they are not, have not been able to do so
with certain leadership apparatuses, which have been threatened and destroyed by the
drone strikes. But that leaves many of their resources and many of their infrastructural
capabilities, and many of their demands in terms of expertise more or less intact.
So what, all that's really happening right now, and I think the White House is well aware
of this, is that Islamic State is able to mobilize and appropriate many of those energies
in order to leverage them against the, um, the new Yemeni government, or whoever will
take power in Sana'a, or whatever forces they do wish to target during this ongoing civil
war.
PERIES: Right. Now, on Tuesday the Saudis made an announcement that there's been a joint
20-member state Islamic alliance formed in order to fight terrorism. Tell us a little
bit about that formation, and why it has come about.
AHMED: Well, that formation is most--once again, you have a Saudi-led coalition that's
mostly Saudi Arabia. And I think that's important to note, that part of what's happening is
that Saudi Arabia is attempting to operate with respect to its own interest and with
respect to the interest of the Gulf monarchies in general, with something of an international
respectability and international cooperation.
But that risks obfuscating and mystifying what's actually going on, which I think is
important. However, I also think that part of what's happening is that you have a very
large military mobilization going on in Yemen right now between Saudi Arabia and its allies,
although you have notable absences, such as Pakistan. And Saudi Arabia has a vested interest
in seeing much of that mobilization continue, especially as it involves a very severe degree
of domestic repression which occurs in many countries in times of war. This is statecraft
101, to some extent. But Saudi Arabia has a vested interest in its armed forces mobilizing
to such a large extent, and it probably has an interest in seeing that mobilization simply
being applied to a new military context, which would be Syria.
PERIES: Bilal, you mentioned something very interesting, which is Pakistan. Are they a
part of this alliance or not, and what are the tensions that exist between what Saudis
are announcing and Pakistan?
AHMED: Well, it's actually a, something of a diplomatic situation that's going on right
now. Because Pakistan was included in the coalition without it necessarily being agreed
to, without Islamabad fully being consulted, which is a bit strange. Pakistan stayed out
of the coalition in Yemen because it didn't wish to get involved in what was clearly a
conflict with an increasingly sectarian character, given its significant Shia population, and
given the consequences of sectarian rhetoric in Pakistan itself, which is already dealing
with a hugely disparaging effect from sectarian rhetoric.
It remains to be seen if Pakistan will join this anti-terrorism coalition. The Pakistani
military certainly has a strain that is ambitious enough to pursue that objective. However,
this leaves a lot open and a lot of questions to be asked. And a lot of questions to be
answered, based on which factions will be able to take control of Pakistani foreign
policy in this context, and whether or not the risk of joining the coalition and potentially
operating in Syria is considered to be worth it. Although it is worth noting that Pakistani
mercenaries have been operating in both Yemen and Syria before, and that what we're really
talking about is the public military apparatus.
PERIES: Bilal, this is an ongoing discussion as tensions in the region rise, and I hope
to have you back very soon.
AHMED: Thank you very much.
PERIES: And thank you for joining us on the Real News Network.