>>> WELCOME BACK TO "MORNING
JOE."
COMING UP ON 7:45 EAST COAST
TIME AS YOU LOOK AT A LIVE
PICTURE AT THE WHITE HOUSE IN
WASHINGTON.
JOINING US NOW FORMER FDA
COMMISSIONER DR. SCOTT GOTTLIEB.
YOU RAISED A LOT OF EYEBROWS
WITH A COMMENT YOU MADE THIS
WEEK BECAUSE PEOPLE HAVE BEEN
TAKING TO YOUR ADVICE EVERY DAY
WITH WHAT’S HAPPENING WITH
CORONAVIRUS WHERE YOU SAID WE’RE
BACK WHERE WE STARTED WITH
CORONAVIRUS IN NEW YORK IN MARCH
AND APRIL AND THE DIFFERENCE IS
THERE WAS ONE EPICENTER, NEW
YORK CITY AND NOW THERE’S FOUR
OR FIVE EPICENTERS.
WHAT’S YOUR CLEAR EYED VIEW OF
WHERE WE ARE RIGHT NOW?
>> WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE TOTAL
NUMBER OF INFECTIONS WE’RE
HAVING 700,000 INFECTIONS A DAY
RIGHT NOW.
PROBABLY MORE THAN THAT.
PROBABLY THE NUMBER WE WERE
HAVING AT THE PEAK OF THE
EPIDEMIC IN NEW YORK CITY.
AT THAT TIME WE DIAGNOSED 34,000
INFECTIONS BUT PROBABLY ONE IN
20 INFECTIONS BECAUSE WE WEREN’T
DOING A GOOD JOB TESTING.
PEOPLE WEREN’T GETTING TESTED.
SO THAT MEANT WE PROBABLY HAD
AROUND 700,000 INFECTIONS EVEN
THOUGH WE WERE ONLY DIAGNOSING
34,000 A DAY.
WE’RE DOING A BETTER JOB TESTING
PROBABLY ONE IN 12 INFECTIONS
RIGHT NOW.
CDC SAYS 1 IN 10.
SO THAT’S 60,000 INFECTIONS A
DAY WE’RE DIAGNOSING THAT’S
PROBABLY MORE LIKELY 700,000
INFECTIONS.
SO IN TERMS OF THE BURDEN WE’RE
IN THE SAME POSITION AS WE WERE
IN MARCH AND APRIL.
THE ONLY PROBLEM IS IT’S IN
YOUNGER PEOPLE, HEALTHIER PEOPLE
AS WE’RE DOING BETTER PROTECTING
VULNERABLE POPULATIONS.
SO THE OVERALL MORBIDITY IS
LOWER RIGHT NOW IN TERMS OF THE
INFECTION BURDEN BUT THE BURDEN
IS ABOUT THE SAME.
IN TERMS OF HOSPITALIZATIONS
WITH 43,000 HOSPITALIZATIONS
YESTERDAY, THAT PUTS US BACK
WHERE WE WERE IN MID MAY AND
THAT’S LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO GO
UP TRAGICALLY.
WE’RE LIKELY TO SEE
HOSPITALIZATIONS RISE.
REMEMBER AT THE PEAK IN APRIL WE
HIT ABOUT 60,000
HOSPITALIZATIONS.
SO WE MIGHT START TO APPROACH
THAT NUMBER AS WELL.
>> SO, DR. GOTTLIEB, WE’VE HAD
DOCTORS ON JUST THIS MORNING,
ONE FROM MIAMI-DADE COUNTY, AN
EMERGENCY ROOM PHYSICIAN ABOUT
TO GO INTO HIS SHIFT SAYING I’M
GOING TO WALK INTO A FULL
EMERGENCY ROOM, MANY COVID
PATIENTS, SOME NONCOVID
PATIENTS, WE’RE HEARING SIMILAR
STORIES OUT OF PLACES LIKE SAN
ANTONIO
ANTONIO, HOUSTON, FULL BEDS
THERE AND A SHORTAGE OF PPE,
WHICH IS SOMETHING I’M SURE THE
COUNTRY THOUGHT WE SOLVED AFTER
THE INITIAL RUSH IN NEW YORK,
BOSTON, AND NEW JERSEY.
WHY ARE WE HERE ON THE
FUNDAMENTAL QUESTIONS OF GETTING
PEOPLE TESTED, GETTING PEOPLE
PPE, WHY ARE WE BACK ASKING
THESE QUESTIONS AND HAVING THESE
CRISES AGAIN?
>> I THINK THE MOST SURPRISING
PART OF THIS IS THE TESTING THAT
WE’RE HAVING THE TESTING DELAYS
IN STATES WITH EPIDEMICS.
IT DEMONSTRATES WE DON’T HAVE A
LOT OF CAPACITY IN THE COUNTRY.
WHILE WE’RE TESTING A RECORD
NUMBER OF PEOPLE A DAY AND WHILE
THE AMOUNT CONTINUES TO GO UP,
THE ABILITY TO GET TESTING
RESOURCES INTO PLACES THERE’S
EPIDEMICS ISN’T THAT STRONG
RIGHT NOW.
THE ONLY REAL SWING CAPACITY IN
THE COUNTRY ARE THE LARGE
CLINICAL LABS, AND THEY’RE
PRETTY MAXED OUT AND THEY HAVE A
LIMITED ABILITY TO MOVE
ADDITIONAL TESTING CAPACITY INTO
SOME OF THESE MARKETS BECAUSE
THEY’RE COMMITTED AROUND THE
COUNTRY.
WHILE YOU HAVE A LOT OF TESTING
IN MASSACHUSETTS AND NEW YORK
YOU DON’T HAVE ENOUGH IN FLORIDA
AND TEXAS.
THAT’S WHERE THE GOVERNMENT CAN
PLAY A ROLE.
IN TERMS OF THE HEALTH CARE
RESOURCES, THESE STATES AREN’T
YET ON THEIR EXPANSION PLANS.
THEY HAVEN’T GONE TO THEIR SURGE
CAPACITY.
I SUSPECT SOME OF THEM ARE GOING
TO TIP TO THAT IN THE COMING
WEEKS.
STATES LIKE TEXAS AND FLORIDA
HAVE VAST HEALTH CARE SYSTEMS,
CALIFORNIA AS WELL.
STATES I’M WORRIED ABOUT ARE
ARIZONA, SOUTH CAROLINA,
ALABAMA, LOUISIANA WHERE YOU’RE
SEEING LARGE OUTBREAKS BUT THEY
DON’T HAVE THE SAME VAST
RESOURCES, AND IT’S HARD TO MOVE
PATIENTS BETWEEN STATES SO
STATES CAN GET IN TROUBLE IN
TERMS OF RUNNING OUT OF HEALTH
CARE CAPACITY.
FLORIDA STILL HAS CAPACITY, THEY
HAVEN’T GOTTEN TO THEIR SURGE
CAPACITY YET, SAME WITH
CALIFORNIA AND TEXAS.
BUT IN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS WE’LL
SEE STATES GROW AND THEY’LL MAX
OUT THAT CAPACITY AND GO INTO A
SURGE TYPE OF SETTING PROBABLY.
>> KATTY KAY HAS A QUESTION FOR
YOU.
>> CAN I ASK YOU ABOUT THE
SCHOOLS ISSUE.
SPEAKING EARLIER IN THE PROGRAM
ABOUT WHAT SCHOOLS CAN LEARN
FROM OTHER COUNTRIES AND WHAT
THEY’VE DONE IN OTHER COUNTRIES
BUT ONE OF THE BIGGEST
DIFFERENCES IS INFECTION RATES
ARE HIGHER, IN GERMY YOU HAD 298
CASES YESTERDAY, DENMARK, 110.
WHEN YOU COMPARE THAT IN THE
STATES AND THE SURGES HAPPENING
AT THE MOMENT, IS IT THINKABLE
WHEN WE ’GOT INFECTION RATES OF
11,000 PLUS CASES A DAY IN A
STATE LIKE FLORIDA TO BE OPENING
SCHOOLS?
>> I THINK SCHOOLS SHOULD
REOPEN.
I THINK THE VAST MAJORITY OF
GOVERNORS ARE WORKING TO REOPEN
THEIR DISTRICTS.
IN STATES WHERE YOU HAVE DENSE
EPIDEMICS AND CITIES YOU HAVE
DENSE EPIDEMICS IT’S GOING TO BE
DIFFICULT.
SO WHEN YOU LOOK AT HOUSTON,
MIAMI IT’S GOING TO BE HARD TO
REOPEN SCHOOLS IN TERMS OF THE
BACKDROP OF SURGE CAPACITY, BEDS
IN CONVENTION CENTERS.
AS THIS BUILDS IF YOU LOOK AT
THE PRIVATE MODELING IT SHOWS
WE’RE GOING TO PEAK OUT IN THE
STATES IN THE NEXT TWO OR THREE
WEEKS, IT’S UNCLEAR IF THAT’S
TRUE OR NOT.
THERE HASN’T BEEN A LOT OF
MITIGATION THAT’S REALLY A
SIGNAL WE’RE GOING TO TURN A
CORNER ON THIS, ALTHOUGH PEOPLE
ARE VIGILANT.
SO IF YOU DO PEAK OUT IN THE
NUMBER OF CASES IN TWO OR THREE
WEEKS, YOU’RE STILL GOING TO
HAVE AN EXTENDED PLATEAU LIKE WE
HAD IN NEW YORK.
HOSPITALIZATION LESS INCREASE
AND SO WILL DEATHS, TRAGICALLY.
SO THESE HOSPITALS WILL BE MAXED
OUT AT THE TIME THEY LOOK AT
STARTING SCHOOL.
THE OTHER THING TO REMEMBER IS
WITH OTHER COUNTRIES, THEY PUT
IN PLACE STRINGENT MEASURES IN
THE SCHOOLS TO TRY TO CONTROL
OUTBREAKS.
THEY DID IT SUCCESSFULLY.
SOME SCHOOLS DIDN’T.
ISRAEL HAD A LT OF CAPACITY
ISSUES IN THEIR SCHOOLS.
BUT THE COUNTRIES THAT DID IT
SUCCESSFULLY, DID IT BY PUTTING
IN PLACE MEASURES TO TRY TO
CONTROL FOR OUTBREAKS.
THAT’S WHAT WE NEED TO DO HERE.
YOU WANT TO AVOID OUTBREAKS IN
THE SETTINGS THAT IS GOING TO
CLOSE SCHOOLS AND SET US BACK.
SO YOU WANT TO PUT IN PLACE
PRECAUTIONS AT THE OUTSET TO
PREVENT LARGE OUTBREAKS IN THE
SCHOOL ROOM SETTING.
WHEN I TALK TO GOVERNORS, THAT’S
WHAT THEY’RE LOOKING TO DO.
THEY ALL WANT TO REOPEN THEIR
SCHOOLS, BUT THEY’RE GOING TO DO
IT WITH SOME PRUDENCE, SOME
CAUTIONS, AT LEAST INITIALLY.
TAKE IT SLOW AND SEE HOW IT GOES
BEFORE THEY START TO BRING
EVERYONE BACK INTO THE
CLASSROOM.
SOME ARE GOING TO STAGGER THE
SCHOOL DAY OR HAVE ONE DAY A
WEEK THAT KIDS DISTANCE LEARN.
PUT IN PLACE DISTANCING IN THE
SCHOOL.
BUT ALL OF THEM ARE GOING TO
TAKE SOME KIND OF PRECAUTION.
>> YEAH.
WE NEED TO GET THIS PRIET.
AS YOU SAID, NEW YORK CITY HAS
ANNOUNCED IT’S STAGGERED SCHOOL
SCHEDULE.
WE’LL SEE IF THAT HOLDS UP UNTIL
EARLY SEPTEMBER WHEN SCHOOLS
OPEN BACK UP AGAIN.
DR. SCOTT GOTLEIB, THANK YOU
VERY MUCH.
>>> COMING UP, WILL THERE BE