Bitcoin was stealing the show, but is starting to deflate…….although you cannot count
out those altcoins.
They always find a way to pop and kick off into what people around these crypto parts
call an altseason.
Well will the season be Jolly?, fa-la-la-la-la….it’s time for Chico Crypto!!
The question on everyone’s mind, are the markets ready to POP and allow us to have
an altseason for this year 2022?
Is it safe to start looking into altcoins??
Should we start rebalancing portfolios and looking into coins that will go wild if an
altseason does take place?
Well those question will be answered to the best of my ability, but the first thing we
need to look at is the reason an altseason kicks off….the performance of Bitcoin.
Yes Bitcoin is the front runner of an altseason, and if one is to take place Bitcoin needs
to turn full on bullish and even with the recent price moves we are not there just yet.
Pulling out the Bitcoin price over the past 90 days, we can see around January 5th of
this year, the price collapse under 45k in one steep candle…and since then it has provided
serious resistance.
February 7th and the 10th, the price tried to break it, but failed and over the past
few days into March, the price has tried once again, but is facing serious resistance once
again, deflating back down.
There is no doubt this resistance needs to fall if there is going to be another true
altseason.
(Link #1 Jurrien Timmer tweet and chart) So is it going to fall?
Well some big ole think tanks in the financial world believe so.
Jurrien Timmer, the director of Global Macro at Fidelty posted this chart of both bitcoin
and equities.
He said “Looks like a potential double-bottom is in the making for BTC and the related equities”
which shows this technical pattern playing out, but the top comment on his post goes
deeper a crypto love, @holdtraderepeat on twitter said all the way back February 20th
“BTC in for an Adam & Eve double bottom?
Would have to hold above January low and then break yearly open (≈$46k) for confirmation.
We have held against that January low…and once again around that 45k range, they say
a break of 46k for a confirmation of this double bottom pattern.
Confirmation would mean another boom for Bitcoin…
Double bottom pattern playing out, so is it going to play out and will we break these
critical levels and have a straight shot up to $50k?
Well we have to look at Bitcoin Illiquid Supply, aka bitcoin that is held not on exchanges
but in personal wallets and cold storage.
As we can see Illiquid supply has been growing throughout Bitcoin history…meaning more
and more people are becoming hodlers, not trading it on exchanges.
As we can see the highest point of illiquid supply in the past was back in May 2021, when
we hit 64k…although as of today, it looks like the illiquid supply just might be breaking
that peak.
Well pulling out this chart, we can see that yes we have broken that number.
Bitcoin illiquid supply is 76.3 percent of the circulating supply, and the peak back
in May of 2021 was 76 percent.
So why does this mean a break of these important levels is coming?
Well it’s all about illiquid supply.
Very little bitcoin trading on exchanges means even small spikes in demand can make the price
go parabolic, resulting in big ole fat green dildongs.
Soo the signs are there Bitcoin want to POP…what about altcoin and that atlseason Tyler!?
Well if you looked at the Bitcoin Dominance chart you would say…funk no there is no
altseason.
Bitcoin dominance has been trending up for months, since January of this year.
That is true Bitcoin dominance fell below 40 percent in early January, but since has
pumped and pumped hard looking to cross 45 percent dominance as of late.
So why are you showing us Bitcoin dominance pumping in regards to an altseason?
Well if you can’t see from that chart, throughout 2021, dominance has been setting a series
of lower highs.
July of 2021 dominance peaked at 49 percent, then 3 months later in September it dropped
down to that 40 percent level, before rebounding…middle of October 2021, dominance dropped to a lower
high of just over 47 percent, and then just over 3 months later in January of this year,
it dropped just below that 40 percent level.
The pattern is about 3 months to go from a dominance high to a dominance low.
2 percent drop in dominance, to make the lower high Right now we are go are moving into month
3 since that low, and we are pushing towards 45 percent.
And you can see this trendline of higher lows much more clearly with this tweet from Ceaser
@apegodceaser on twitter.
They say “#Bitcoin Dominance is something I’ve been watching a lot recently.
Currently back into its “peak-zone” and nearing the major RSI resistance ~70+.
Could be signaling that #alts may begin to move?
Or another scenario?”
Me thinks it’s altcoins signaling a major move soon!
And this final chart I want to show is showing a major season is getting ready to take place.
This chart shows total altcoin market cap, and it goes back all the way to the early
days beginning in 2014.
As we can see altseason’s have a first impulse which contains a starting point where alts
go on a run.
They cool down, but recover, making a generous cupping pattern.
The second impulse is shorter than the first one, but this is when alts go on fire…reaching
the target line.
As we can see from the last alt cycle, the first impulse lasted 853 days, while the last
impulse lasted 549 days.
We had another first impulse that started in 2019 and lasted all the way to the May
2021 peak.
This was exactly 853 days.
Is it possible since then we are moving into our second impulse that would last 549 days
pushing us up to the target line That would mean the end of this alt cycle
and bull run would take place in October of this year, and the total market cap of alts
would be near 31 trillion dollars!
Is this just some charting hopium or what is to come??
Well there isn’t a reason to prepare for this, and coming up I’m going to show you
how to best set yourself up if an altseason does take place…but before we get into that
it’s time for a sponsored segment of this video brought to you by the team at Algebra
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I’ve already approved the tokens for trade, but you’ll have to click approve for each
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refresh the page and you’ll see your active pool.
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Now back to getting setup for the next atlseason.
Now there is a reason for Bitcoin dominance growing like it has been.
You have to understand the money flow of crypto…money goes from Fiat first into Bitcoin, then once
the markets start heating up, and Bitcoin breaks critical levels, the money starts to
trickle into altcoins.
First it goes into large caps, then it goes into mid caps, and finally it flows into the
small caps.
So in my opinion, the first coins that should be targeted are the large caps.
And this money flow is already kind of beginning.
If you haven’t noticed the top 10 cryptocurrency, and large cap Terra Luna is popping.
February 20th Luna was under 50 dollars, about 48…it’s recent peak was over 95 dollars.
Just an over 97 percent increase.
Obviously large caps are beginning to suck liquidity from Bitcoin.
So who could be another large cap having a bullish run?
Well as much as I hate to say this…XRP ripple.
If you didn’t know, during the last alt cycle based on Impulses, XRP was pretty much
left out of the first impulse…but in May of 2017 and towards the end of it, December
of 2017 XRP had extremely bullish runs right in the middle and at the end of that second
impulse.
So is XRP going to have another second impulse run, beginning around May?
Well it may come a tad bit earlier, if you didn’t know XRP and it’s case with the
SEC is likely going to end next month in April and they are expecting Ripple to win the case.
Like I’ve said in the past, a win is going to PUMP XRP, a loss would devastate it….if
XRP is going to win…the price will do big things.
What about another large cap?
Well one I see doing big things here soon, is Oasis Rose..it has fallen out of the top
100 cryptocurrencies…and as we can see that is a result of the price falling from a previous
all time high of over 56 cents.
Although from the chart it seems to have batoomiinged out and is going to reverse and go on another
run…
Why do I think this?
Well Oasis is a layer 1, which is having dapps deploy and an ecosystem built around it.
As we know other layer 1’s have ran when this started to happen., Solana, BNB, Avalanche,
Fantom…
Per example a fountain protocol just launched on Oasis, which is a borrowing and lending
protocol on the network.
I wonder what is happening to the protocols token FTP?
It’s starting to go ballistic…
I would expect a theme starting here, the more dapps that deploy to Oasis the better
for the Oasis Rose price, and those tokens of the dapps will likely pump the first few
days of launch, especially as the wider crypto community catches on.
Good thing Chico Crypto is first.
Cheers I’ll see you next time!