What is going on with the market right now?
Is the bull market over?
These are the questions on everybody's mind.
I'm going to take a look at the charts, the graphs,
the fundamentals and the emotions of what a bull run is and is not.
What can history show us about past bull cycles?
And are we looking at a history-breaking scenario?
In this video,
we're giving you a cycle update on the most insane bull market in the history of crypto.
Let's get it!
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Welcome to BitBoy Crypto! The largest crypto channel in all the Interwebs.
My name is Ben.
Everyday on this channel, I show you how to make money in crypto.
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So let's go ahead and get into where we are in this market.
Bullish or bearish?
The current bull market started back in late 2020 when Bitcoin finally broke the $10,000 barrier.
Rising above $10,000 took Bitcoin into the next level of publicity
where retail investors and corporations alike rushing to exchanges,
leading to a backlog of KYC verification on Coinbase and Binance
for sometimes up to three weeks or a month.
Robinhood and Cash App Bitcoin purchases took off,
and transaction times for Bitcoin and Ethereum really started to bottleneck.
Gas fees on Ethereum shot up to new levels and have stayed up since September.
Since then, we've seen parabolic gains for not just Bitcoin
but Ethereum, Monero, Litecoin, Ethereum Classic, Polygon,
and everyone's favorite meme coin,
Dogecoin.
So crypto had a run-up, so what?
Back in 2017 we had a run-up with a similar amount of pitch,
but the backside was also just as steep.
The 2017 bull run gave Bitcoin a strong support for it at $5800
that wouldn't be broken for another eight months.
Compare this to what we've seen in the 2020 bull run,
and you'll notice that while the rise has been similarly parabolic,
there hasn't been a massive correction following the peak.
We've been moving in what so far is a head and shoulders pattern
that could break either way.
That was until May 19
when all the crypto markets corrected by over 40%,
pulling everyone's portfolio into the ground.
Support levels for all the major coins evaporated like they weren't even there.
It was the biggest downward move in the history of crypto.
More details on that deep dip here in a minute.
So since the basic models don't seem to be telling us anything about where we're in the cycle,
Let's turn to the tried and true stock-to-flow chart.
Bitcoin stock-to-flow has been a reliable source of bull and bear signals
ever since Twitter user PlanB ported it over from commodities trading,
which makes sense because Bitcoin has a fixed supply like gold
and behaves in a similar deflationary manner.
But Bitcoin like other crypto assets has an excellent granularity
in how it is brought to the market or mined.
Just go on any block explorer to see what the difficulty is per block,
how many blocks are being mined and what the hashrate is.
Don't you just love decentralization?
The transparency.
The stock-to-flow for Bitcoin has accurately predicted almost every bear dip and bull peak
up until now.
The telling pattern to look at is how this bull run compares to the 2013 double hump bull run.
Maybe I will start calling it a camel run.
Back in 2013, there was a parabolic run-up followed by a cute little baby bear market
followed with a rising wedge and ending in a bear market starting in the middle of 2014.
That bear market lasted for three years until the next halving.
Compare the first hump of 2013 to the hump we're seeing right now in 2021.
It's very similar.
Stock-to-flow appears to indicate that we're not done with our bull run,
and we could see another run-up soon.
But one thing to keep in mind is that the first top in 2013 was on the first hump.
So, did we hit the top?
Well, let's look at another indicator that has been one of the favorite market indicators for the bears.
It takes the 111-day EMA and the 350-day EMA and looks to see where they cross.
When they've crossed,
it's usually been within three days of the peak of the Bitcoin market for that cycle.
For this cycle,
you can see that the lines crossed on April 21 when we saw Bitcoin hit $63,445.
But there's a noticeable difference.
Usually, at the top,
the 111-day EMA jumps at 350-day EMA at least for a few days if not weeks,
and then a bear market sets in,
but so far, the 111-day EMA has stayed under the 350.
They gently bounced off each other on April 21
like bumper boats in Disney World.
Does this mean we hit the top?
Or are we going to bounce back?
"Ben, I thought these graphs would make me feel better!"
It's funny you mentioned feelings because
that's what's leading into my next revelation about the current bull run.
Battle.
Battle never changes.
In this bull run, we're seeing explosions of FUD going off left and right
in what appears to be a coordinated plan to manipulate the market,
not just to shake off retail investors with weak hands,
but the whales themselves are battling one another.
They know crypto is the future of finance,
and they want as much of the pie as they can gobble up.
What tipped me off to this were two YouTubers, Crypto Savy and uncomplication,
and they both started seeing eerie similarities to the trajectory of Bitcoin's price
and that of a 100-year old price manipulation strategy called a Wyckoff distribution event.
This strategy was discovered by Richard Wyckoff,
a pioneer of trading stocks and finance,
and much of his work is what day traders and investors use to this very day.
Okay, great history lesson, Ben.
But what does this have to do with these 30% corrections?
Well, I'll tell you.
I like to talk.
Wyckoff tracked the best methods of accumulation during a bull run and charted it out.
One of those methods lines up nearly perfectly with what has happened to crypto markets
during this bull run.
It's textbook market manipulation.
Whales taking huge profits to cause mini panics to shake out competitors to then make big buys
and then take profits again and on and on until the bulls are no longer on parade,
and the bears take over.
To look for more solid evidence of a restart to the bull market,
look no further than Market Cipher.
We got a green dot on the daily chart September of 2020,
and from there, the market rose by a staggering 500%,
pushing Bitcoin and Ethereum to new all-time highs of $64,804 for Bitcoin,
$4356 for Ethereum.
And what just happened today on the Market Cipher daily chart?
Well, so far, it's unconfirmed, but we're seeing another large green dot.
That could set us up for another parabolic rise.
If Bitcoin and Ethereum jumped by another 500% like the last time,
we could be looking at a Bitcoin of over $300,000
and a $25,000 Ethereum.
Both of those numbers were the topside of my original prediction for this bull market.
Now, don't misunderstand.
This bull market is not tracking like previous ones.
And I, the BitBoy, cannot in good conscience tell you that it's going to be bull times for sure.
There's so much volatility, and I go off of historical data.
So far, the historical data is still holding, but that could quickly change.
If we crash after this green dot,
it's most likely bear time.
Let me repeat that.
If we see another crash like what happened on May 19,
this bull market is most likely over,
and the bears are on parade.
Don't turn your back on these charts.
Make sure to stay on your toes.
I am.
We've got big players, whales battling and quite possibly sovereign money getting into crypto on this bull run,
so these next few days are a critical inflection point
that could mean the difference between eating HODL noodles for a while
or that the moon is back into view,
and massive gains are just about to pop off.
Where do you think we're going?
Let us know down below in the comments,
and after that, make sure you are subscribed to the channel,
and, heck, like the video while you're at it.
That's all I got.
Be blessed.
BitBoy out.