NEIL: THE JAPANESE PRIME
MINISTER MEETING WITH THE
PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES.
WE DON’T KNOW WHAT THEY TALKED
ABOUT, MORE COOPERATION IN THE
PACIFIC TO COUNTER WHAT WE HAVE
SEEN WITH THESE PROVOCATIVE
ACTIONS BY CHINA.
WHEN I THINK OF CHINA I THINK
OF GORDON CHANG, THE COMING
COLLAPSE OF CHINA, THE US CHINA
TECH WAR, KNOWS OF WHAT HE
SPEAKS.
ALWAYS GOOD TO SEE YOU.
ON THE JAPANESE PRIME MINISTER
HERE TALKING ABOUT TIGHTER
RELATIONS AND MORE COOPERATION
IN THAT NECK OF THE WOODS.
WHAT DOES IT MEAN?
>> ON THE MILITARY FRONT, IN
THE MIDDLE OF LAST MONTH, THE
US AND JAPAN ARE EQUAL
PARTNERS.
MOST IMPORTANT THING, THE
JAPANESE SAID THEY WOULD ENGAGE
IN COUNTERSTRIKE.
ATTACKING AN ATTACKER ON THEIR
HOMELAND.
THAT MEANS JAPAN IN THE US CAN
WORK TOGETHER.
USED TO BE JAPAN WOULD ONLY
DEFEND THE JAPANESE ISLANDS,
THE US WOULD DO THE TOUGH
STUFF, NOW WE ARE ALL GOING TO
DO THE TOUGH STUFF TOGETHER
WHICH MEANS WE ARE IN A GOOD
POINT WITH JAPAN.
NEIL: THIS IS THE RESPONSE TO
CO-PROVOCATIVE ACTIONS BUT ARE
THEY MORE BARK THAN BITE?
PEOPLE SAY IT IS IN THEIR
INTERESTS NOT TO GO TOO FAR BUT
THEY SEEM TO PUSH IT.
>> THE JAPANESE BUSINESS
COMMUNITY IS WE DON’T WANT TO
DO ANYTHING TO PROVOKE CHINA
BUT THE NATIONAL SECURITY
COMMUNITY FEELS A SENSE OF
URGENCY.
THEY CAN SEE CHINA PREPARING
FOR WAR.
IT IS NOT ONLY BUILDING UP
THEIR MILITARY IN CHINA BUT
ALSO SANCTION PROOF THE REGIME
AT MOBILIZING CIVILIANS FOR
WAR.
THAT’S THE OMINOUS ASPECT OF
THIS, THE JAPANESE CAN SEE
THIS.
WE THINK OF TAIWAN AS A
NATIONAL TARGET BUT I THINK
JAPAN WOULD BE MORE LIKELY
VICTIM OF CHINESE AGGRESSION
FOR A NUMBER OF REASONS.
THE JAPANESE.
.
20 A LOT OF BAD BLOOD GOES BACK
A FEW YEARS.
>> BECAUSE IT RILES UP THE
CHINESE PEOPLE.
I GREW UP, I DIDN’T GROW UP IN
THE PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA,
I GREW UP IN NEW JERSEY, MY DAD
CAME FROM CHINA.
I WAS TAUGHT AT A YOUNG AGE
ABOUT THE HORRORS OF WORLD WAR
II AND JAPAN.
MY DAD WAS A VICTIM OF THAT
BECAUSE HE WAS PUSHED WESTWARD
AS THE CHINESE TOOK SHANGHAI
AND EVERYTHING.
THIS HAS BEEN INSTILLED IN
PEOPLE WHO ARE CHINESE BUT THE
PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA
INSTILLS IT MORE SO.
NEIL: HOW ARE THEY DEALING WITH
COVID IN CHINA.
>> YOU CAN’T TRUST THE REGIME’S
NUMBERS BECAUSE THEY ARE
UNDERCOUNTED.
THE MODELING THAT HAS BEEN DONE
BY A NUMBER OF HEALTH FIRMS
SAYS 800 MILLION INFECTIONS OR
MAYBE ONE.
ONE BILLION INFECTIONS THIS
WINTER, DEBTS WILL BE BETWEEN
1-2 MILLION.
THEY EXPECT THE CURRENT SURGE
TO CREST IN A WEEK BUT THEY ARE
ALSO TALKING ABOUT A SURGE IN
MID-MARCH.
THAT WOULD MAKE SENSE BECAUSE
WE SAW UNDER 0 COVID POLICIES
AND CHINA WHICH THEY ABANDONED
DECEMBER 7TH, THIS HIT BEIJING
AND CHINA IN 3 WAVES.
THIS SURGE IS GOING TO COME
BACK AND HIT THESE CITIES
AGAIN.
NEIL: THE COUNTRY HAS BEEN
REOPENED, NOW THEY ARE DEALING
WITH THE REALITY THAT MAYBE,
DON’T KNOW IF THERE WAS MIDDLE
GROUND BUT THEY HAVE REAL
PROBLEMS.
THIS IS BACK TO WHAT IT WAS AT
ITS HEIGHT.
>> THIS IS WORSE.
WE TRIED TO FLATTEN THE CURVE,
CHINA COMPRESSED TO THE CURVE,
NOT LIKE THEY INTENDED TO DO
THAT BUT HAVING THOSE TWO
POLICIES, 0 COVID AND NO POLICY
AT ALL, RIGHT BACK TO BACK
NUMBERS COMPRESSED THE CURVE
AND MEANT THERE HAS BEEN UNTOLD
SUFFERING ESPECIALLY AMONG
ELDERLY CHINESE.
WHEN WE SEE THE CREMATIONS IN
THE STREET IN PLACES LIKE
SHANGHAI AND ELSEWHERE, THAT
SAYS SOCIETY HAS BROKEN DOWN.
NEIL: I SAW THAT IN THE NEW
YORK TIMES, YOU SEE THIS, THEY
ARE NOT HIDING THAT IT IS GOING
ON.
THAT IS PRETTY BAD.
>> WE DON’T KNOW THE FULL
EFFECT ON SOCIETY BUT IT CAN’T
BE GOOD BECAUSE THE CHINESE
PEOPLE ARE REALLY UPSET.
I DOWNTURN IN THE ECONOMY.
IT CONTRACTED LAST QUARTER, IT
IS CONTRACTING THIS MONTH.
THERE’ S NOT MUCH DEMAND FOR
CHINESE EXPORTS.
WE SAW TERRIBLE DECEMBER EXPORT
NUMBERS AND THIS MEANS THE
CHINESE ECONOMY HAS A LONG WAY