>> THANKS, BRANDIS.
HOLIDAY TRAVEL IS TURNING OUT TO
BE A NIGHTMARE FOR WOULD BE
FLYERS AS THE OMICRON VARIANT
SURGE TRIGGERS THE CANCELLATION
OF THOUSANDS OF FLIGHTS.
AS OF THIS AFTERNOON, THE FLIGHT
DATA WEBSITE FLIGHT AWARE
REPORTS 1100 CANCELLATIONS FOR
FLIGHTS WITHIN TO OR FROM THE
U.S. AFTER 3,000 CANCELLATIONS
OVER THE WEEKEND.
IS THERE AN END TO THE HOLIDAY
TRAVEL CHAOS?
AND HOW WELL CAN THE INDUSTRY
WEATHER THE LATEST COVID SURGE?
JOINING US ARE HENRY HARTEVELDT
THE TRAVEL INDUSTRY ANALYST AND
PRESIDENT OF ATMOSPHERE RESEARCH
GROUP.
AND CAPTAIN DENNIS TAJER, AN
AMERICAN AIRLINES PILOT AND A
SPOKESMAN FOR THE ALLIED PILOTS
ASSOCIATION.
WELCOME BOTH OF YOU TO "CHICAGO
TONIGHT."
DENNIS MUILENBERG WE SEE DEMAND
NEAR PREPANDEMIC LEVELS BUT
CANCELLATIONS AND DELAYS.
WHAT IS BEHIND THE PICKUP?
>> DEMAND IS HERE.
THE AMERICAN PUBLIC PROVEN THAT
OVER THE SUMMER AND NOW.
WHAT IS HAPPENING IS OUR CALLS
THAT WE'VE SEEN DURING THE
SUMMER AND OVER HALLOWEEN AND
THAT IS SOME WEATHER HIT AND
MOST IMPORTANTLY THIS COVID
FLARE-UP HAS HIT SO IT'S CAUSING
SOME STRAIN ON THE OPERATION.
SEEING THE CANCELLATIONS IS NOT
SURPRISING.
BUT IT'S THE RECOVERY WE'RE
WATCHING FOR AND AMERICAN HAS
BEEN UNIQUELY CHALLENGED IN
RECOVERING FROM THESE EVENTS.
>> HENRY HARTEVELDT WHEN WE SAY
THE OPERATIONS DOES THAT MEAN
CREWS ARE GOING DOWN WITH COVID
AND THERE IS NO BACK UP?
>> CORRECT.
THE OMICRON VARIANT OF COVID
HITS PEOPLE RANDOMLY.
AND PEOPLE WHO ARE FULLY
VACCINATED AND HAVE GOTTEN A
BOOSTER SHOT.
AND SO AN AIRLINE EMPLOYEES
DON'T HAVE A SPECIAL SIGN OVER
THEIR HEADS SAYING I WORK FOR AN
AIRLINE DON'T HIT ME OMICRON
THEY ARE AS VULNERABLE AS
EVERYBODY ELSE.
AND AIRLINES HAVE RESERVE CREWS
THERE ARE ONLY SO MANY PEOPLE
WORKING AND AIRLINES CANNOT
CONTROL WHO GETS SICK AND WHO
DOESN'T.
>> CAPTAIN DENNIS TAJER IN TERMS
OF AIRLINES WAS THIS INEVITABLE
OR COULD IT HAVE BEEN AVOIDED?
>> WELL, THE INFECTION RATE IS
NOTHING THAT ANYONE CAN CONTROL.
BUT HOW WELL AND HOW QUICKLY
THESE AIRLINES RECOVER AND
UNITED AND DELTA AND JETBLUE ARE
GOING THROUGH THE SAME THING.
BUT WE'RE GOING TO SEE WE HAVE
SOMETHING THAT IS NOT LOCALIZED
TO AN AREA.
IT IS ACROSS THE SYSTEM.
SO WHICH AIRLINE IS ABLE TO
RECOVER THE QUICKEST AND MOST
EFFECTIVELY TO TAKE CARE OF
THEIR PASSENGERS.
THE RACE IS ON.
AND WE'RE GOING TO BEAT THIS
COVID THING BUT MOST IMPORTANTLY
WE WANT TO GET OUR PEOPLE FROM A
TO B TODAY.
>> WHICH AIRLINE MIGHT BE THE
FIRST TO EMERGE WITHOUT THE
CANCELLATIONS?
AND HOW LONG DO YOU THINK
THISRIES DUPION WILL LAST.
>> IT IS NOT ONE THAT I CAN
ANSWER BECAUSE WE DON'T KNOW
WHERE OMICRON IS GOING TO HIT.
IT SEEMS THAT UNITED AND DELTA
WERE HIT WITH MORE OUT AND MORE
CREWS WHO WERE SICK BEFORE
AMERICAN.
IF THE TREND CONTINUES, IT'S
POSSIBLE I'M NOT SAYING IT'S
GUARANTEED THAT UNITED AND DELTA
MAY EMERGE FROM THIS AHEAD OF
AMERICAN BUT WE DON'T KNOW THE
VIRUS IS RANDOM AND IT COULD
JUST AFFECT PEOPLE AT ANY
AIRLINE AT ANY TIME.
>> CAPTAIN DENNIS TAJER THERE'S
BEEN DEBATE FOR THE LAST YEAR
WHETHER THE F.A.A. SHOULD
MANDATE VACCINATION FOR ALL AIR
TRAVELERS.
PRESIDENT BUSH SAID HE DID NOT
THINK --
PRESIDENT BIDEN SAID DE NOT
THINK IT WAS NECESSARY QUITE
YET.
DO YOU THINK THERE WILL COME TO
A POINT WHERE IT MIGHT BE
NECESSARY?
>> WHAT WE DO KNOW IT'S SAFE TO
BE ON AN AIRPLANE.
THE AIRFLOW THE FILTRATION, THE
HEPA FILTERS ARE HIGHER THAN IN
A SURGICAL ROOM.
WHEN I AM ON A TRIP SOMETIMES I
WANT TO GET TO THE AIRPLANE
BECAUSE I KNOW IN THAT COIN R
CONTAINED AREA I AM IN THE
SAFEST PLACE POSSIBLE.
IT'S THE RIDE FROM THE HOTEL TO
THE AIRPORT ON THAT VAN THAT I
GET CONCERNED ABOUT.
SO WE'LL LET THE SCIENTISTS
FIGURE THIS OUT AND THE
VACCINATION.
WE DON'T WANT THAT TO BE USED AS
LEVERAGE TO INSPIRE PEOPLE TO
GET VAXED.
THE AIRPLANE IS SAFE.
WE WANT TO TRUST THE SCIENCE AND
GO WITH IT AND NOT BE CAUGHT UP
IN THE LEVERAGE CAMPAIGN.
>> I'M VACCINATED AND BOOSTED.
I BELIEVE IN IT.
BUT WE HAVE 88% OF OUR PILOTS
VACCINATED AND WORKING THROUGH
EXEMPTIONS ON THE OTHERS.
WE WILL GET THROUGH THIS BUT WE
WANT TO MAKE SURE THERE ARE NOT
RASH DECISIONS MADE WITH A
COCKPIT WITH A RUSH TO COMPLY.
>> AND HENRY HARTEVELDT MOST
MAJOR CARRIERS DID REQUIRE
VACCINATION FOR WORKERS, CREW,
PILOTS ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THAT
DOESN'T TAKE EFFECT UNTIL THE
NEW YEAR.
HOW IS THAT GOING?
>> WELL, IT SEEMS TO BE GOING
WELL YOU HEARD THAT 88% OF THE
AMERICAN AIRLINES PILOTS ARE
VACCINATED.
UNITED AND DELTA, SOUTHWEST AND
OTHERS HAVE SIMILAR HIGH NUMBERS
MAYBE HIGHER.
AND LOOK, IF WE DIDN'T HAVE AS
MANY AIRLINE EMPLOYEES
VACCINATED, AS WE DO NOW, IT'S
POSSIBLE THESE CANCELLATIONS
COULD BE FAR GREATER IN NUMBER
AND THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE WHO
WERE AFFECTED BY THESE
CANCELLATIONS MUCH, MUCH LARGER.
>> DENNIS IS THAT WHAT YOU ARE
SEEING FROM YOUR END WITH THE
UNION THAT CREW MEMBERS, PILOTS
ARE CHOOSING TO BE VACCINATED
ARE HOLDOUTS LOSING THEIR JOBS
OVER IT?
>> WELL, NO ONE IS GOING TO LOSE
THEIR JOB ON JANUARY FOURTH THAT
IS THE TIME TO REVISIT THAT AND
MOST OF OUR PILOTS 88% AND THEN
THERE ARE SOME WHO CANNOT GET
THE VACCINATION DUE TO MEDICAL
REASONS.
SO IT LOOKS LIKE WE ARE GOING TO
GET THROUGH THIS.
WE'LL FIND OUT JANUARY 4.
BUT THAT NOT THE DROP DEAD DATE,
IT'S THE TIME PILOTS WILL BE
ABLE TO CONTINUE TO WORK WHILE
THEY WORK THROUGH THE FINAL
MOMENTS.
FOR THE CODED REASONS WHY
AMERICANS CANCELING THE FLIGHTS
WE ARE ABLE TO SEE THOSE IN
85-90% ARE ATTRIBUTED TO NOT
BEING ABLE TO CONNECT THE PILOT
TO THE AIRPLANE.
WE'VE WATCHED AMERICAN AND THE
WEATHER RECOVERY STRUGGLE
CONNECTING PILOTS AND WE WANT TO
SEE WHERE THE CORRELATION IS ON
THIS AND KNOW WE CAN DO BETTER.
>> SO YOU'RE SAYING MAYBE
REQUIRE SMOOTHER OPERATIONS AT
HIGHER LEVELS WITH AMERICAN.
HENRY HARTEVELDT AS WE MENTIONED
THE DEMAND IS BACK.
AMERICANS WANT TO TRAVEL.
ARE AIRLINES RECOVERING FROM THE
MAJOR FINANCIAL LOSSES AND ABLE
TO TURN A PROFIT?
>> YES.
SO SO FAR THIS YEAR THE AIRLINES
HAVE MANAGED PRETTY WELL.
NOT ALL AIRLINES ARE HANDLING
THIS EQUALLY WELL BUT MOST ARE
DOING WELL AND THERE WAS
OPTIMISM GOING INTO CHRISTMAS
THAT FOR SEVERAL CARRIERS THEY
WOULD BE PROFITABLE.
THE LOSSES ARE MUCH LOWER NOW
THAN THEY WERE DURING 2020 AND
THERE'S GREAT HOPE THAT IN 2022
WE SEE A MEANINGFUL RESUMPTION
OF BUSINESS TRAVEL AND WE SHOULD
BE ON A GOOD TRAJECTORY FOR
AIRLINES TO RETURN TO A MORE
NORMAL PACE OF BUSINESS AT LEAST
AS FAR AS REVENUES AND PROFITS
ARE CONCERNED.
>> WE'LL SEE HOW IT GETS IRONED
OUT.