um here's another interesting chart we're talking about like the long-term short-term thing
um this is the supply held by long-term holders
so the way glass node classifies this is they use a certain threshold so they you know
these people are like insanely smart like the CTO of glassnode is like an ex-neuroscientist so
they do all kinds of heuristics and statistics to do this stuff but they ran a statistic uh
study on on the behavior of different entities on the blockchain and they found that when you
go past a certain threshold the likelihood of um those entities selling just drops off dramatically
and so that threshold is 155 days or exactly five months um and so that that's how they distinguish
long-term versus short-term holders and so this chart is looking at the amount of supply
held by long-term holders and actually this might be more useful i can compare it to um
the short-term holder starts like what is your personal strategy are you like fully
uh got your core position taken out are you still cost averaging are you uh yeah sure um i i mostly
hold right so i hold like uh 75 80 of my bitcoin and then i trade that smaller portion
based off mostly on chain flows but i do look at you know some things like ta um
order book analysis and some other things just to get a more uh well-rounded view
as far as this dip in the last three months though you have you have i've just been slowly yeah i've
just been slowly building up a position kind of in the bottom of that range you know kind of between
30 35k um you know scooped up a little below you know below 30k but mostly i was just averaging
in that range because i was seeing you know mostly um on chain that that kind of reaccumulation phase
cool so this is this chart here is looking at um the supply held by long-term holders
versus um short-term holders blue is long-term yes blue is long-term holders and then this kind of
weird gold brown color um is is short-term and so what you see is i'm sorry let me move i had the
zoom thing and then in front of my cursor um what you see is throughout you know in a general sense
in bull runs you see long-term holders distributing their coins
while short-term holders um probably be useful if i had the price in here right would you say
in general um long-term holders distribute their coins into strength right so this is
this is the smart money in the space that's been in for a long time and so they know um you know
retail will come in and fomo in during during bull markets we have these crazy overextended rallies
where speculation just comes in and drives the price way up um and so this smart money starts
you know scaling out um let me change the color this looks confusing they start to scale out when
when we really start running up um so here you'll see we'll just look at the 2013 bull run and then
we'll look at 2017 and now so here in 2013 um once again the bottom line is uh short-term holders
right and the top line is long-term holders going into the first uh you know rally in 2013
short-term holders started buying and then you see that long-term holder chart that started trending
down so you had distribution to those to those right short term holders are buying the tops of
all of these uh rallies yes exactly and you know for a lack of better words it's it's smart money
distributing to uh dumb money uh that's just i mean that's just the truth um when when you
get into um kind of this this midway point here um what's interesting is you actually started
to see um long-term holders accumulating again in between the two double pumps and this is why
i think this is interesting because it's similar to what you're seeing now but we'll get to that
um when we when we get down there um so yeah you started to see price was going down all the
speculators started scaling out long-term holders started buying in because you know this was like
from peak to trough like 85 drawdown to the bottom between the the two 2013 double pumps um so you
started to see long-term holders scoop up those cheap coins and then when we rallied again you saw
speculators come in and drive that price up into that euphoric blow off top while those long-term
holders scaled out once again here we head back into the bear market and here you see once again
short-term holders moving out bitcoin isn't going up insane amount so speculators leave and
it's not fun anymore but the long-term investors with you know real conviction they're gobbling
up these cheap prices they're buying heavily right so then we head back into the 2017 bull market and
then once again you start to see these short-term holders starting to buy up and you start to see
here the long-term holders begin to scale out once again and so you see that distribution into the
blow off top here literally right at the blow off top you have you know that this max uh you
know distribution between the two and then you see once again the long-term holders begin to buy this
is beautiful it's just this beautiful divergence between the two things and you can really see how
the money that's been in for a long time um you know they have conviction in these lower prices
when all the people that are new to the space are freaking out these people are stepping into buying
very heavily um and and once again here we are in in the current uh you know current bull run that
we've been in um you know short-term holders coming in long-term holders began scaling out
kind of towards the end of the year and kind of mid mid october of last year and then you got to
kind of the peak around around late uh march early early april but what's interesting is that now uh
long-term holders have started buying again wall shorts from holders had began selling um and so
there you know there's four other instances that we just looked at where this happened so a
at the end of the bull market here here i'm sorry there's three other instances um and then
here between the two 2013 double pumps um and this is this is where the long-term holders actually
were buying right um and then you can also look here technically um but i wouldn't say this is
this is you know quite as dramatic as this but you did also see halfway through the bull market that
short-term holders began selling off and long-term holders um kind of like pushed you know the bull
run into into that kind of final phase um but i would say this is this was really kind of a better
representation of where i believe we are now where you have long-term holders kind of coming in and
set the floor um but zooming in i mean long-term holders are buying it like you're saying you think
you think it's comparable to the beginning of 2017 is what you're saying um well kind of late 2016
um or or in my opinion uh mid 2013 just in the sense that you have this kind of mini bear phase
um and the long-term holders and kind of strong hands are coming in and setting that floor
by the way how long do you think because if it's like comparable to you know mid 2013 cycle but
even more so you know if it's comparable to like late 2016 to me that would imply we stop like a
long time before we reach the eventual top do you think how far do you think we're are into this
cycle how long do you think it'll go yeah sure it's a great question um you know i don't really
look at timing to be honest i think i think that's just like really hard to predict and we only have
two sample sizes right we only have 2013 2017 so it's like try to extrapolate the timing um
i i don't really find that useful to be honest um but i try to look for like similar behaviors
and then try to kind of estimate what's going to go on in kind of intermediate term obviously like
what goes on months from now i can't really tell because i can only look at what the data is saying
now we'll figure that out when we get there but um yeah you know the way i see it is like
the the timing could could extend out to you know mid 2022 it could be the end of this year i just
personally have no idea about the exact timing but i do see us having this kind of second run up
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