At this point, it seems that Putin's regime is indestructible. The economy
is holding up to trade sanctions much better than many expected – Although,
as we told you in our Patreon bulletin, things have started to change with the arrival of 2023.
Be that as it may, Putin has been able to quell all protests. Nor does
an internal rebellion in the Kremlin's inner circle appear to be imminent.
However... What if the problem was OUTSIDE Moscow? In other words... To what extent
could the country's peripheral regions break away from Mother Russia someday? Is this really
possible? It may surprise you, but this is one of Putin's own greatest fears. Listen up.
In other words: the possible Balkanization of Russia is not something we made up here
on VisualPolitik: it is a fear that Putin himself has.
And the truth is that there are good reasons to think that Russia might
break up someday. Remember that we are talking about a huge country,
with a lot of ethnicities and nationalities that are completely unlike the Russians in Moscow.
And no, we are not only talking about territories like Chechnya. For example,
did you know that the Republic of Tatarstan, which is this region you see here, was on the verge of
becoming an independent and sovereign state? And we don't have to go back very far in time
either: we're talking about 1992! This is just one example. Administratively,
Russia is made up of 84 different territorial entities – and that's not counting what they
have annexed from Ukraine. What’s more, the differences between these entities are vast.
For example... on the economic level, Russia is terribly unequal. Much more so than even the
European Union and all its constant expansions. For example, the GDP per capita of the richest
region of the country can be – depending on the price of oil – up to 60 times higher than that
of the poorest territory. This difference in the European Union is only 16 times.
And the war in Ukraine is serving to increase these differences even more. At this point I
know what many of you will think – good news for the West, right? Well... Not so
fast! An internal rift in Russia could trigger an international crisis of gigantic proportions.
Think of it this way: who would keep Russia's nuclear arsenal? As you can see,
we are talking about a scenario that, whether more or less likely, needs us to be prepared.
So, in today's video we are going to focus on one of the most central aspects of Russian
politics... and at the same time the most unknown outside Russia... Could Russia really
disintegrate territorially? Could they lose territories? What territories would these be
and why would they want to break away? Today we are going to answer these questions, but first,
let's look at a bit of history. (THE CHANGING
BORDERS OF RUSSIA)
If you study the history of Russia, you will see that there are two ironclad rules that have been
fulfilled for centuries. The first is that Russia always tends to expand. Yes, it is true that many
other countries have territorial disputes, but the case of Russia is special. For example,
what you see here is the Republic of Tuva. With a territory equivalent to three Costa Ricas.
For most of its history, this area has been controlled by China. However,
since 1944 it has been Russian territory... But pay attention! We are not only saying that
it became territory of the Soviet Union: no. We are talking about the territory of
Russia itself. But wait, there is more! This other place you see is the island
of Sakhalin, which is as big as the whole of Austria. For centuries, it was ruled by China,
Japan or Russia. In 1905, the Russians gave it to the Japanese. But after World War II,
they took it back in its entirety. And we could go on with so many other territories:
Primorsky, Karelia, Kaliningrad... But Russia's expansion did not end with the Second World War.
In 2014, Russia annexed Crimea, and last year, in 2022, they annexed,
at least on paper, the Donbas republics. And yes, we are talking about annexations. That is,
on Russian world maps, both Crimea and Donbas are marked as territories that are as Russian as St.
Petersburg itself. In other words: Russia continues to move its borders even today:
regardless of the international agreements they have signed.
The second constant in Russian history is... the inability of the Kremlin to send adequate
resources and public services to all parts of its territory. Whether we are talking about the Russia
of the Tsars, Soviet Russia or Putin's Russia, Moscow always tries to control the whole country
from the Kremlin... with disastrous results. This causes a lot of regional and ethnic tension.
And this brings us to the third constant in Russian history: the tension between
centralism and federalism. That is: depending on the historical point in time, Moscow has
tried to give more autonomy to its regions... and then has taken it away. So now the question is:
if Russia can gain territories, could it also lose them? Well, right now we are going to take a look.
INDEPENDENT REPUBLICS WITHIN RUSSIA?) If you are interested in Russian politics,
here is something that will catch your attention: Chechnya, Dagestan, Sakha... these are all
regions of Russia, but they call themselves "Independent Republics". What does this mean?
Are they independent or are they part of Russia? How can you be independent and, at the same time,
part of a country? Well, this is where this gentleman you see on the screen comes in.
We are talking about JOSEPH STALIN! Yes, the same Stalin of the Gulags and the deportations!
When the communists came to power, they realized that there are two Russias:
the central part and the periphery, which has very different ethnicities. For centuries,
the Tsars had been expanding their territory. Sometimes at the rate of one new Belgium a year.
As a result, there were lots of regions whose only relationship with Moscow was
the tribute they had to pay... and the young men they had to send to the wars. Otherwise,
they had a different culture, religion and even language.
And don't think that we are talking about small territories! For example,
this one here is the Republic of Saja. It is the size of India, making it the
largest region in all of Russia. And it is populated by the Yakuts,
who don't even speak a Slavic language. And this you see here is the Republic of Buryatia.
It is as big as Germany... And it also has its own language, related to Mongolian. Well,
Stalin realized that the best way to fit all these territories into his new communist utopia was to
give them a special status. To allow these regions to keep their own language, their own culture and
their own traditions – of course, religion was a separate issue because they were communists,
but that's another story. And that's how the Autonomous Republics of Russia were born.
That is to say, regions within Russia that were able to have their own constitution,
maintain their language and culture. But be careful here! Don’t confuse the Autonomous
Republics with the Soviet Socialist Republics. For instance, UKRAINE and KAZAKHSTAN were part of
the USSR, but not part of Russia. However, the Sakha Republic we were talking about before,
for example, was part of Russia. In other words: ironclad law number three: the Kremlin cannot
manage all its territories and is looking for a new fit... but the goodwill lasts only a decade.
Basically, in 1938 Stalin himself re-imposed Russian as a compulsory
language and deportations and cultural marginalization began. However, the concept
of the Autonomous Republics was maintained. And this is very important. Why? Well, pay attention.
WHEN RUSSIA ALMOST BROKE APART)
Soviet Union, 1990s: the whole country is on the verge of collapse. The outcome?
Russian territories that want to break away from the yoke of Moscow.
To avoid a total collapse, the then Soviet leader, MIKHAIL GORBACHEV, passed the "Law on Autonomous
Republics". On 26 April 1990, the USSR gave the same legal status to the Russian Republics as to
the Soviet republics. In other words, CHECHNYA , for example, could have broken with Russia,
but could have remained part of the Soviet Union with the same status as Ukraine or
Kazakhstan. So what was the problem with this law? Well basically that months later,
Gorbachev himself ended up announcing the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
Ukraine, the Baltics... all these soviet territories became new independent countries,
but what happened inside Russia? Well, in many of these autonomous
republics they asked themselves: Are we still part of Russia or not? If the
Ukrainians have become independent… Why not the Chechens or the Tatars?
Conclusion: in each of these republics they held referendums to see if they
wanted to remain within Russia... or not. And what do you think happened?
Well, there were republics that voted to become independent. You already know the story of
Chechnya... But they were not the only ones! For example, there is the case of TATARSTAN.
The Tatars are a very different ethnic group from the Russians. They are Muslim, speak the Tatar
language, which is also a Turkic language, and have their own history and even their own names.
Well, in 1992, the Tatars voted in a self-determination referendum:
82% turnout and 61% in favor of sovereignty, which the majority interpreted as independence.
As you can imagine, this set off alarm bells in the Kremlin... Another Chechnya? Another region
that wants to secede? Another region where we will have to send the army? Well... luckily,
in this case, Yeltsin managed to convince them to stay. How? With good-naturedness and negotiation.
During the 1990s, the Kremlin negotiated bilateral treaties with each and every one
of these autonomous republics. That explains why each republic has had more or less autonomy
depending on how they negotiated with Yeltsin. In the case of Tatarstan, since they wanted to leave,
Moscow had no choice but to give them more autonomy than any of the other regions.
This explains why, for more than two decades, the Tatars have been able to have their own
taxes and even their own foreign policy. It turns out that the Independent Republic of
Tatarstan has better infrastructure and is much more industrialized than its neighbors.
In other words: it seemed that Yeltsin had found the solution for integrating all ethnic Russians
into one Federation. Okay, yes, we are talking about an unequal federalism... But it worked!
The problem? Remember Russia's third ironclad law: to seek a new fit for all the territories? Well,
the goodwill only lasted until a new tenant arrived in the Kremlin. Listen up.
PUTIN AND THE RETURN TO CENTRALISM)
Let me ask you a question, what is the name of Vladimir Putin's
political party? Exactly! UNITED Russia. Believe me,
the name is no accident. If there's one thing Putin doesn't like, it's do-gooder Federalism.
In 2004, Putin eliminated the democratic election of regional governors. True, in 2013 he reinstated
it, but with a lot of amendments. Put another way: regional leaders are chosen, in one way or
another, by Moscow. To give you an idea, between 2012 and 2018, the Kremlin replaced 63 governors.
And yes, that includes the very independent and very sovereign Tatarstan. Since 2017,
they have even lost the ability to collect their own taxes.
In other words: as of today we can already say that Russia is once again a federal republic in
name only. All decisions are made from Moscow. And this is noticeable, above all, regarding money.
To give you an idea, between 2012 and 2018, the Kremlin's tax revenues measured in rubles – not
dollars - grew by 77% while those of the regions by only 3%. So what does this mean? Rule number
three: we give you independence to make you stay, and a few years later we take it away.
And I know what many of you will be thinking: it makes sense. A country with so many territorial
inequalities needs redistribution of resources. For example, 80% of Chechnya's resources come
from the Kremlin. But this centralism has very big economic problems. And the
war in Ukraine doesn't help, why? We are going to take a look at that right now.
DON’T BITE OFF MORE THAN YOU CAN CHEW)
As of today, in the year 2023, it is estimated that 20% of the Russian population has no access
to running water. For example, in many areas of the Sakha Republic, where it can reach -40°C in
winter, they have to buy blocks of ice every day and heat them in order to have clean water. This
may explain why half of Russia is uninhabited. To give you an idea, the Far Eastern district
accounts for 41% of the Russian territory... But only 5.5% of the population! Of course,
the climate is not in Russia's favor. But it is not only a problem of climate but also of resource
management. And here I will digress a little: Russia's problems with the Far East is enough
for a video in itself... and it has a lot to do with Putin's strategy of pivoting towards Asia.
But this is a subject that is well worth dwelling on and paying close attention to the details.
And, for that reason, instead of publishing it openly, we are going to reserve it for those of
you who follow us in our Patreon community. You already know that you can support VisualPolitik
through our Patreon. From there, you have a range of options that will allow you to
receive up to two exclusive weekly publications: the Weekly Snapshot and LatamPolitik. In addition,
there is an exclusive content option where we deal with more in-depth topics
for all those who are passionate about international politics. So, as we said:
in our Patreon you will be able to see a much more in-depth analysis of Putin's problems in
developing the Asian part of Russia. But for now, let's move on with this video.
Moscow has a problem of galactic proportions when it comes to bringing infrastructure to
the whole country. For example... something that will surprise you...
Russia has hardly any bridges! While the United States has about 600,000
bridges, Russia, which is 1.7 times larger, has about... 42,000 bridges. That translates into
areas the size of all of Western Europe where it is almost impossible to find jobs. But why
can't they build infrastructure? Well, let's look at one example: the bridge in Yakutsk,
the capital of the Republic of Sakha. This project came to a screeching halt
in 2014. Why? Well, because that was the year in which Russia invaded the Crimean peninsula.
Suddenly, the Kremlin's priority became the development of its new territory – Crimea.
Almost all the money went to projects like the Kerch Bridge, which connects Crimea with the
rest of Russia. That and pharaonic projects like the Sochi Winter Olympics: one of the
most expensive in history. In this project alone, the Kremlin blew more than $16 billion:
almost double the $9 billion they had planned to invest in developing the Far East district.
Do you understand where I am going? Now the Kremlin has almost unlimited power to manage
Russia's entire budget. And now Putin has other priorities that take precedence over developing
all the far-flung regions. On the one hand, he needs to increase military spending. On the other
hand, he needs to keep the accounts under control. Many regions are being marginalized. In fact,
it is estimated that, by 2024, 68% of the GDP of all Russia will come from the 12
most prosperous regions alone. But we are not just talking about money! We're also talking
about lives. Where do you think most of the Ukrainian war casualties are coming from?
Well, take a look at this approximation,
which is probably an understatement, but it gives us an idea of how things are.
At the time of making this video, Moscow has lost 98 soldiers. If we take into account that
Moscow has 13 million inhabitants, we can say that most Moscow families
sleep peacefully. But what about other regions like... the Republic of Buryatia? In this case,
we are talking about 452 fallen? That is, at least 1 out of 2000 inhabitants has
died in the war. In other places like the Republic of Tuva, we find similar figures.
In other words, there are more and more people in these regions who personally
know people killed in this war. A war that is taking place thousands of kilometers away.
Keep in mind that the distance between the Republic of Tuva and Ukraine is the same as
the distance between Spain and Armenia. And all this explains why self-determination movements
are beginning to emerge. In fact, in 2022 the Forum of Free Nations of Russia was born,
in which several separatist movements are beginning to organize themselves.
So nobody knows. Are we really going to see a separatist movement in Russia? It's too
early to say... and, if so, it could be many years away. As we always say:
here on VisualPolitik we cannot predict the future. But we can say that the problems
of Tsarist Russia persist in Putin's Russia. And, just as Russia has struggled with ethnic
tension in the past, it could be doing so again in the not so distant future.
In any case, there are a lot of issues that we have had to leave out. If you want to know
more about this topic, we are waiting for you in our Patreon. In the meantime, the questions are
for you; Will we see a new wave of separatist movements? Will Russia be able to find another
new solution for all these republics? If not? What would happen to the whole Russian nuclear arsenal,
in whose hands would it be left? You can leave me your answer in the comments.
And as always, don't forget that here, on VisualPolitik, we release new videos every week,
so subscribe to this channel and hit the little bell so you don't miss any of our updates. If
you liked this video, LIKE it and see you in the next one. All the best and see you soon.