Good Tuesday morning,
I'm your meteorologist Melissa Terrazas
here in the 13 news Now Weather Center.
Let's talk about your tropics.
So this is the outlook that was posted well
before the beginning of hurricane season,
which began around June 1st.
Now on average,
we have about 14 named storms,
but we were forecasts that
have anywhere from 14 to 21.
Now. As far as hurricanes go,
on average we have seven.
We were forecasted to have anywhere
from 6 to 10 major hurricanes.
We usually have around 3:00 this year.
We were forecasted to have
anywhere from three to six.
Now let's take a look at
how it usually pans out.
Now, the beginning of hurricane
season is generally pretty quiet
and then we began to increase that
activity usually around August.
But peak hurricane season
is right around September,
early September and right on September
10th to be exact after that.
That's when we began to see the
trend line really began to descend.
And right now we're already
beginning to see some activity.
Begin to quiet down with the exception
of what we are currently tracking,
we're not tracking any current disturbances,
but we are tracking what is
hurricane a major hurricane.
Ian,
let's take a look at what
we've already seen this here.
So we had Alex, Bonnie,
Colin, Danielle, Earl, Fiona.
Guests on all that came relatively soon.
I mean within the past two
weeks her mean that formed off
the West Coast of Africa.
It was short lived,
it was a tropical storm and
now we're tracking Hurricane
Ian is a strong and powerful.
Hurricane as a category three.
But before we get into tracking,
Ian,
I wanna talk about what makes up
basically a hurricane and how the
different quadrants are separated.
So this front right quadrant,
that's where you're going to get
your maximum hurricane impact.
When we take it over to the left,
that's what we're going to see,
the most significant wins.
We're also going to see the most
significant winds in the back right
quadrant when we take it over to the left.
Now this is known as the weakest
but still very dangerous.
Area now,
Ian Major,
Hurricane category three officially
made landfall just before the
5:00 o'clock Hour along parts of
western Cuba earlier this morning.
Now there's higher terrain in Cuba now.
What does that mean?
That we could see mud slides when you're
dealing with the hurricane force winds,
when you're dealing with heavy,
heavy amounts of rain?
And we're actually already beginning
to see the system bring impacts
to the state of Florida as a
category three major hurricane.
It's actually expected to strengthen now,
as of right now.
As of the latest advisory,
it is moving N at 12 mph.
We have sustained winds of 125 mph.
Those gusts are actually getting
up to 155 mph now.
What's it going to do as it
as it continues to move north
and enters the Gulf
of Mexico? Well,
it's projected to strengthen.
We have warmer waters in the Gulf of Mexico.
This is going to allow for this hurricane
to really build up some more strength.
Right now it's 12 mph moving N now.
If it moves faster than this,
we could see impacts of Florida sooner.
As of right now,
it is projected to make landfall
along the western coast of Florida
as early as tomorrow night into early
Thursday morning as a category three.
If it does make landfall as
a category three hurricane,
it would be a major hurricane.
We're looking at storm surge.
We're also dealing with heavy
amounts of rainfall expected all
across the state of Florida,
but the main threats really lie
along parts of the Western codes,
with the highest risk being
between the Tampa Bay region.
Going South, extending through Fort Myers,
FL as it continues to make its
way up north through the state,
central parts of Florida weakening,
eventually becoming a tropical storm as
early as your Friday morning and then
as it continues to move N from there,
continuing to weaken,
turning into a tropical depression
as early as Saturday morning
into your Sunday morning as well.
Let's take a look at your top
three major models.
So we have the American,
the European, and we have the GFS.
They are tightly packed together.
This means that.
All three of them within the next
2-3 days are saying the same thing.
It's going to move N from Cuba,
it's going to enter the Gulf of Mexico,
it's going to strengthen and from there
it's going to impact the state of Florida.
Now two of the models being the
American model and the European model
have it impacting make it landfall
along parts of the Tampa Bay region,
while the Canadian model takes it
due north and impacting parts of and
making officially landfall along
parts of the Florida Panhandle.
Now what it does from there?
That we begin to see a little
bit more uncertainty,
but two of the major models now
are saying all of that moisture is
gonna cut through parts of Georgia,
the Carolinas and even NE North
Carolina and coastal Virginia.
It's going to bring us some rain.
So here's a look at the futurecast
taking things,
bringing things back here to home.
We are going to be seeing that
increase of showers,
wet weather as soon as really Friday
afternoon into your Friday evening
and that's going to stay through the
weekend futurecast giving us an idea
of what Friday night is looking like,
all of that moisture coming in from.
What is currently Hurricane Ian,
the remnants that moisture is going
to be pushed to the East Coast,
we are going to see some rain,
which is something that we actually
do need since we're sitting
under those dry conditions,
parts of the Eastern Shore actually even
under those severe drought conditions.
So we are forecasting really
for the bulk of this,
so occur Saturday now we are expecting
periods of moderate to heavy rainfall.
So this means that we could be dealing
with some locally ponding or flooding.
So you definitely want to make sure
that you're staying weather aware
as soon as we get into your Friday.
And into your weekend as well.
We'll be dealing with scattered wet
weather for your Sunday as well,
and then lingering moisture still
hanging on before exiting off the
coast for your Monday and your Tuesday.