Hey, thanks so much for joining
us here on 9 News Plus.
I'm meteorologist Chris
Bianchi with meteorologist,
severe weather guru,
severe weather chaser. A lot
of slashes in my business card.
I would say the top one would be
meteorologist, second one would be
storm chaser extraordinaire. Yeah,
go with that, number two.
And then maybe some sort
of journalist after that.
That's down the road because today is going
to be a storm chasing date for today.
So top one takeaways.
For those of you joining us here in 90s plus,
today looks like any high the potential
for a high impact sphere weather day,
including the entire Denver metro area.
Large hail, damaging winds,
even a few tornadoes.
Highest threat looks to be
later so for those of you.
Who've been here in Colorado for a long time.
We tend to think of our thunderstorms between
about 2:00 and 6:00 PM most of the time.
Today's looks to be later than
that with perhaps an overnight
threat for severe storms.
That's why we got Corey here to
kind of break things on down.
Corey, your severe weather expert guru,
how would you assess today and what we see,
what we could see today?
Well, I mean we were talking about this
earlier and it and it really is a rare.
Threat. It's one of the more dangerous
severe weather threats I've seen
in probably the last five years.
2017 comes to mind when we had two big ones,
one on May 8th and one on June 12th and so.
The, the similarities is the moisture.
We're all feeling that.
You can feel it out there.
You can even see the moisture
in the air today.
There it is. So yeah,
I mean this is look at Mountain right now.
That's not smoke. That
is not smoke. It looks like
South Florida right now.
It is. I mean that is a product of
actually seeing the air moving in
the dew points in the 60s and 70s.
Haven't seen a 70 degree
dew point in a few years.
So it's very unusual.
And then the the thing that makes it
also an extra dangerous is the way
that the winds are crossing each other.
So you have winds coming out
of the southwest above us,
and then you have winds at the
surface going up the slope.
And so they're countering each other.
And as you look at the atmosphere,
it turns with height.
So as it goes up it turns.
And so that means all the
thunderstorms will be rotating and
that keeps the updrafts clear.
And so they can maintain that updraft,
which creates bigger hail and potential
for even tornadoes down at the bottom.
So that's why all those things
you mentioned are in play today.
Yeah. And Speaking of which,
I kind of want to go through the
graphics quickly here, Cory, so.
And this is look at mountain again.
It looks like South Beach right now.
That's a problem when it looks
like that here in the high
desert that is not a something.
Well that means that there's
potential for severe storms.
Again, there isn't a Level 3 on
a 05 scale terms that risk for
severe storms that orange shading
not something we often see.
In fact, this is our second
enhanced risk for severe weather
in the last five years.
So Corey, again kind of just
emphasizing how unusual it is.
Today's severe weather threat
is, yeah. And you know a lot of
people will look at that scale and
say three out of five that there's
a couple of things with that three
in Colorado is a little bit stronger
than elsewhere because one of
the reasons why you see it in the
enhanced and not in say the moderate
or high is because of the coverage.
So we're looking at not a huge
amount of coverage in that area.
So we're talking about.
Maybe 3-4 thunderstorm cells that
that are capable of producing
that golf ball and bigger sized
hail and tornadoes and so.
But when you talk,
when you talk about that in a in a
populated area like the Front Range
and even parts just east of the Front
Range between Greeley and Fort Morgan,
you're talking a lot of lot
of people that are impacted.
So when when I see enhanced like you
said we haven't had you know this is
only the second one in about 5 years so.
This is something to definitely
be taken seriously.
Yeah so and large scale after dark.
Again, wanna reemphasize the
unusual timing of this and we're
gonna walk you through the forecast
radar here in just second core.
I made this with that your input.
So what do you think is this right here?
This, this I would agree with
for the Denver metro area, hail
is going to be the big concern.
And again tonight
all the way I think even past midnight
possibly would you say even past midnight
with this severe weather threat.
So I think we even have a flood watch for
the Eastern Plains for the for this evening.
So we're talking about it next.
Extreme amount of moisture in these storms.
So we'll see the flood watch out on
the Eastern plains and that's another
element to all this that we will have to
be dealing with when we go through this
And speaking the moisture here.
And Corey, I want to pull this graphic up
because this is the number that matters
and for a lot of you out there you
might be wondering what is this number.
Who cares about a dew point.
A dew point is the amount measure the
amount of moisture in the atmosphere for.
The Denver area when anytime,
and I'm sure you'd agree with this
to me one of the signals that we're
going to have the potential for a
bad speed weather day is we get
about 10 to 15 days a year where
we get a dew point at 60 or above.
Here in Denver, I actually did a
analysis about this couple years ago.
We only get about 10 to 15 of these a year.
You couple that with what you
were talking about,
those veering winds, this is what.
That, that combination is what's
really setting things off.
Yeah,
the the ingredients are just
unbelievably high today.
So when we talk about all the big
hailstorms that we've had in the past,
especially the ones in 2017.
The the the main ingredient is those dew
points getting upwards near 60 and above
and we're talking about 62 in Denver,
70 out on the Eastern Plains.
So the ingredients are there.
So all the every time we have a big hail
damaging hail event they are days like this.
So if you look at probability we
we just kind of looking at that
the chances of it of something
really bad happening with hail or
tornadoes today is very low but.
When those very bad things happen,
they happen on days like this.
So that's probability still low,
but much higher today than
it is any other day.
That makes sense.
Like maybe if you had to put
it in a different way and
percentages or something,
it'd be like, I don't know,
today is like a 5% chance,
which is still very low.
That's why it's normally
maybe .1 to 1% chance,
is that a way to look at it
exactly and that's that is exactly
how the Storm Prediction Center
lays out their tornado probability.
So today really just before we came
on here and pull it up real quick,
they moved the the tornado risk
here all the way. So the that blue
area there that's that's the 2%.
Actually, was that the 2%? I think,
yeah, that is a 2%. And the 5%
was just to the east of the Denver
metro when we woke up this morning.
And after the Storm Prediction Center
kind of analyzed the ingredients,
they pushed that 2% all
the way to the Foothills.
And so that is literally saying that
everybody in a stationary location
standing in one spot has a 2% chance
of being impacted by a tornado today.
And that is very high for the
Front Range for anywhere,
honestly because tornadoes are,
when you think about they're
actually very small.
You know, they impact a very small
area and they're very hard to produce.
So not only do you have the
ingredients to get them produced today,
but there's enough area where everybody
in our area has at least a 2% chances
of being impacted by a tornado today.
Blue 150 and and dark green one
in 20 chance up in Fort Morgan
Sterling so and eastern Weld County
and I and I would say that the the
the risk may be even higher for
Weld County Morgan County and Logan
County just because of the way that
the Cheyenne Ridge sticks out there.
You have the upslope winds coming out
of the east, and you have the winds
veering over the top from the southwest,
so you really get that turning around
the Cheyenne Ridge on a day like this,
and the same could be said for the
Palmer divide, but with the upper winds.
Going much faster to the north,
that's a higher probability,
but the but the Palmer divide is kind
of a an outlier in this scenario here.
If I lived in Castle Rock, Kiowa,
I would be on the lookout for large
hail and possibly funnel clouds
and tornadoes today.
Speaking of which, so the kind of getting
to the forecast computer models here,
that's basically what you're saying here,
right? I mean you mentioned Albert County
and specifically Kiowa. Kind of Hwy.
86 out there and it looks like that
we see some pretty big storms develop
there around 3-4 o'clock initially.
So again walking through the timeline
it looks like those storms will
develop in the foothills first.
They'll go from West to east and once
they get a little further E Denver
that's when they develop and get really,
really strong. Perhaps that
would be the ideal scenario.
So and you know when we
look at these future cast,
it's kind of simulating the model what
it thinks that the radar will kind of
look like as we go through time here.
And when we think about it that
there is a lid on the atmosphere,
there's a little bit of a warm air on top,
that it's kind of holding everything
down and it's kind of think of it as
a kettle where everything is kind
of boiling underneath that lid.
And and we've seen days where storms
are just not able to break through that,
but most likely that will happen today.
And one of the things that initially
happens is that the air will ride
up some sort of a slope.
Could be the Cheyenne Ridge,
could be the Palmer divide,
but most likely the the foothills
are much taller.
And the the air kind of utilizes
that to get lift,
to get beyond that cap that
like a slide basically exactly.
It just slide right up and
burst through that cap.
And so you get the first batch of storms
usually kind of along the foothills there.
But I would not be surprised it to
get a storm on the Cheyenne Ridge
by you know 2:00 o'clock very soon
here as even even the Cheyenne Ridge
is just sticks up just enough.
To stack the air above it and get that
the storms to break through the cap.
So we may get some initial storms
even in Weld county, Morgan,
Morgan County as early as 1:32.
O'clock.
And
these are the ones though can 5-6 o'clock?
These are probably the ones with the
highest tornado probability right?
These would be the ones where maybe I
think the hail threats could be there
basically all night long just because
the amount of moisture, but maybe those.
The tornado probability specifically
would be highest around 5-6 o'clock.
I would absolutely agree with that.
The one thing that's different
about Colorado is land spouts,
and that that is when the tornado
forms on the ground before the storm.
So it it doesn't really need
the storm to to to pop.
So if you think about it as some
sort of a boundary up there with the
the winds going over the top and on
the bottom at different directions,
you kind of get a little bit
of a circulation on the air.
And so when the storms initially pop,
they can pull that boundary
up and create a tornado,
which we call land spouts,
which are weaker and shortlived,
but they are real tornadoes.
They're attached to the cloud and the ground.
So you see those initially.
And then as we go on into the day,
we're talking about a supercell tornado
threat, which are the more damaging?
Tornadoes that you can see on
radar and actually form from
the rotating thunderstorms.
So we'll have those two kind of different
tornado scenarios going through.
And then as we go into the
later on part of the night,
you you can almost see a a a
scenario coming together where the
storms form kind of a squall line
or like a mini derecho and pushes
across the Eastern plains if that.
Yeah.
If you look at this simulation
you kind of see that kind of a
linear fashion there where that the
storms form this kind of bow out in
front of that tonight we could see
winds in up to 100 miles an hour.
As straight line winds out in
front of these storms,
which if you think about it,
we always talk about tornadoes
because they're so menacing.
But 100 mile an hour straight
line wind in front of these storms
could possibly do more damage than
a small short lived tornado and
it's always worth knowing that.
So maybe here for the metro area and this
is a different computer forecast model.
And just keep in mind here folks,
these are not. Necessarily our forecast,
just want to tell you straight up
that the threat for large hail is
going to include the entire Denver
metro area after dark tonight, right.
I mean we're talking 8:00 to 8:00 PM,
four AM unusual time,
but because the unusual amount of
moisture that we've got that threats
going to last well into the evening
and normally here in Colorado you lose
that moisture come 567 o'clock and that
really reduces that threat for severe
storms tonight a different situation so.
DIA on north and east 6-7 o'clock.
Notice those kind of purples,
those Grays,
those kind of lighter shadings
that that that tells us that we
got some really nasty storms going
to be pushing through that region.
Seven,
8:00 o'clock and then notice 1:00 AM here,
Corey showing one storm over Highlands Ranch.
But it could easily be more than that,
right?
Yeah,
I mean this, the way I look at
it is you don't look at these.
These high resolution
computer models for location,
but you look for characteristics
and when I see us a model like this
creating a storm that organized with
magenta pink red in it in anywhere in
the metro area that that opens your
mind to the possibilities that we
could have hail in excess of 1 inch.
Larger than one inch all the
way past midnight tonight.
So that that that doesn't show you,
that doesn't say, hey,
Highlands Ranch is going
to get hit at this time.
It just says the metro area can
get a large storm late tonight.
And we were saying this before we
kind of came out of the air here.
I think there's a pretty good likelihood
that somebody in the metro area late
tonight is going to have that potential.
Would you say there's a certain spot in
the metro area that overnight tonight will
have a better chance than others? I mean,
I I kind of do agree with this computer
model solution where if you look at
the linear fashion of the way that the
energy moves back towards the east,
you kind of start to focus from the north in
the day and towards the South and at night.
So I mean and this model does kind of show a
little bit more emphasis towards the South,
I would feel that you know Douglas County.
Elbert County, for instance,
later on tonight.
And this happens so many times in
scenarios like this where we'll get
a wave of thunderstorms that move
through the metro at like 5530.
And then it just seems like maybe
the storm is over.
And so people kind of take the
cars out of the garage, you know,
make you know, plans for dinner.
And then at 10:00 o'clock,
you get hit by another storm and
you're thinking what happened here,
but it it really is a potential
all night long
and by the way, tomorrow.
Don't want to overlook tomorrow
either because tomorrow there's
a threat for severe storms.
It's a bit cloudier,
a bit cooler tomorrow,
maybe not quite as much moisture initially,
but Corey, the slight risk,
the Level 2 on a zero to five scale
includes Denver once again for
tomorrow. Yeah, and I think that
we will see some another round of
very large storms tomorrow. Tomorrow
afternoon, right. This is not tomorrow.
Overnight looks. Calmer than tonight, right.
Yeah, I think that that that threat
will be kind of more the traditional
two to you know, two to seven,
two to six scenario and and I think
the storm coverage will be less.
So there won't be as many
thunderstorms tomorrow,
but the thunderstorms that do
come tomorrow I think will be
just as strong as they are today.
So less storms and the potential.
When you get little meteorology 101,
there's a term called discrete super cells
which are ones that sit by themselves.
They have the ability to absorb more energy,
more moisture. And I don't know,
think about, I don't know,
you have a buffet and you have to
share it with seven kids, but you,
you're maybe an only child tomorrow, right?
That's exactly it.
Today, I feel like the storms may
be competing for the amount of
energy that's in the atmosphere,
where tomorrow the storms will have
the entire dinner table to themselves.
And so we could get some of those discreet.
Storms tomorrow, which
you see it here. I mean there's what
maybe one or two stronger storms
while tonight maybe a bit more of
a line and a lot more coverage.
Exactly. So I think both days
tonight and tomorrow it's it's
just going to be a long stretch
of keeping your eyes on the sky.
So next the good news is if you're this
is something that kind of worries you by
the way rain we don't want to overlook
this because the flash flood threat is
there there's a flood watch up for we
we all know the S Platte river going
through some minor flooding right now.
Baja Creek also seeing some of that as
well out in Elber County once we get
past this Friday, Saturday, Sunday,
Monday, Tuesday looking way, way better.
So if you're looking for some relief
from all this stormy weather,
it looks like an extended dry
period starting perhaps Friday.
And certainly by Saturday, right?
Yeah. And I think that's
important to mention too,
because we just went through 40
days where it almost rained on end.
So we're more in a traditional
pattern now where we get a storm
system coming through, you know,
every five to 10 days where and we're
not really in that blocking pattern.
We're just in more of a traditional
summer thunderstorm mode.
Absolutely.
And just kind of some
things on up as hopefully.
This has been informative,
giving you probably far more
detail than you ever asked for.
But you know what?
That's what we're here for and and
we have the the format here on 9
News Plus to be able to do that.
To be able to talk about this in length.
Top line takeaways,
severe storms possible as early
as maybe 2-3 four o'clock this
afternoon in the foothills usual time.
What is unusual about today?
One, the threat for severe storms
is notably higher than usual and
especially for large hail and especially.
The timing is going to be very unusual
with the possibility of seeing
those storms as late as maybe 2-3,
four o'clock in the morning.
So an overnight threat for severe storms,
absolutely. There you go.
Any any final takeaways?
Any thoughts about the threat?
No. I mean, just the probability
is just such an interesting thing.
The worst we're on an elevated opportunity.
So I feel like there's going to be some
areas that really get impacted by large
hail today and damaging winds, but.
You're still looking at a good
portion of the the Denver metro area.
Or you know, even in the May 8th storm there
was a massive baseball sized hail falling,
but 80% of the metro didn't
get any hail that day.
So you kind of have to be looking out
for everybody else and hope that you're
not in that area that gets hit today.
That's that's basically all it is.
It's all probability at the
end of the day and to be clear,
most of you will probably will not
see as you said 90% of you probably
will not see a high impact severe
storm tonight probably is the 10% that
does could get a really bad storm.
So anyways, well, leader of that
meter all is Corey Reppenhagen.
He'll be out in the field on 9 News
throughout the day and I think
throughout the night as well, right?