Leigh Ann: Right.
Switching gears just a little
bit, primary elections this
week, drew national attention
and held vast implications for
November.
Voters in Kansas, a conservative
state, overwhelmingly rejected a
ballot initiative that would
have stripped the right to an
abortion from the state's
constitution.
And in the battleground states
of Michigan and Arizona,
multiple Republican primary
winners have amplified former
president trump's false claims
that the 2020 presidential
election was illegitimate.
And so I want to turn to that
Kansas vote.
59% of voters in Kansas like we
said a conservative state voted
to defeat this referendum.
That mirrors public polling
where 60% of polls show that
Americans want some sort of
access to abortion.
So Asma, you know, what does
this mean for abortion heading
into the midterms and also what
does it mean for Democrats
heading into the midterms?
Asma: Well, talking to a couple
of democratic analysts this
week, and they are extremely
optimistic looking at what
happened in Kansas.
I think it came as a shock to
them that just the percentage of
support, that came -- to support
abortion rights, to support
reproductive rights there in
Kansas given that Kansas is a
conservative state that
historically votes for
Republicans.
And -- in presidential
elections.
And I think there's two things
that I took away from Kansas.
One is turnout matters.
You look at turnout in the
Kansas primary, and it was about
double what turnout was during
the 2018 primary in Kansas.
And to me, that is extremely
palpable and potent for
Democrats.
As they think about is there
potential to galvanize voters
around this issue?
But I think this is where I
think the concern is for
Democrats it is very different
to vote on a specific policy as
it was in Kansas than it is to
vote for people, law markers,
who may carry out a policy.
And I don't really know that the
two things are going to be the
same.
And in November, people are not
going to be voting for Xbox
rights directly on the ballot as
they did in Kansas this past
week.
Leigh Ann: So Democrats are
saying that they want -- I'll go
to you, Ashley, they want --
they hope that the thought of
abortion, people thinking of
abortion, will translate to
support for Democrats in the
polls.
From the white house
perspective, are they seeing
that as a possibility in the
midterms?
And are they changing their
strategy at all seeing what
happened in Kansas and that
perhaps the voters are maybe on
their side?
Ashley: So, you know, what
happened in Kansas was
surprising for everyone,
frankly, and very good news for
Democrats generally.
I share Asma's question about
when voters are showing up in --
and not specifically voting on
abortion rights, but again,
voting for candidates who have a
whole host of positions.
And abortion has been a very
tricky issue for the Biden
administration and for president
Biden himself.
In part because objectively, he
doesn't have a ton of tools to
really combat the Dobbs decision
and the supreme court.
But secondly, this is something
that Biden, a catholic
president, who goes to mass just
about every Sunday, he himself
has said that he sort of is --
he's intellectually there on the
issue.
He supports Xbox rights.
-- Abortion rights.
But it's not necessarily where
his heart is.
He is still not even comfortable
saying the word abortion.
If you go back and look at sort
of earlier iterations of Biden
he himself has said the way I
was raised and came up I may be
a little old school on this
issue.
And so when -- when the decision
first came down, it took the
white house about two weeks to
really react.
They were slow.
And the president failed to
channel sort of like the emotion
of the country.
And not just women in the
country and not just Democrats
in the country as the Kansas
result showed.
So again, it's not a natural
issue for this president to kind
of, you know, chain himself to
the steps of the supreme court
as it were.
But it's absolutely on something
they understand.
Again, especially seeing the
results that it is very
galvanizing and they want to
make it work to their advantage.
Leigh Ann: And it was surprising
for the president, and
Democrats, it was surprising for
Republicans as well.
Carl: I talked to.
Republicans to a person they
were surprised by this result.
And I think what we're seeing
here, I've covered abortion
politics for a long time as part
of congressional politics.
And it's always been a
hypothetical.
What will happen if roe V. Wade
is overturned?
And they fought around a
hypothetical.
Now it's a reality.
And I think it's changing the
entire debate.
You're already seeing both sides
change their positioning on
this.
The Democrats are going to get
more aggressive.
The Republicans are going to get
more measured.
Leigh Ann: Talk a little bit
more about that, Carl.
Because, you know, after roe was
overturned, after the Dobbs
decision, you started to hear
Republicans actually say that
they don't support exceptions.
That -- you know, for rape and
incest.
And Democrats were saying that
they feared that contraception
or not being able to travel
across state lines was
Republicans' next goal.
So what are Republicans going to
do --
Carl: Already you're hearing
Republicans, I heard it from
Republicans in Arizona and
Florida, two very conservative
places, saying, well, we have
some laws on the books.
And we're going to allow for
some exceptions.
I mean, nothing gets a
politician's attention like a
surprise vote and an actual
tally.
It's not hypothetical anymore.
This is real.
And they're both kind of
adjusting on the fly.
But I think right now, both
sides see this to the democratic
advantage more so than they
thought it was going to be.
Leigh Ann: Are Republicans --
you know, are they going to --
the suburbs is what I really
want to talk about.
The independent voters, I had
reporting, I think you might
have had had this, too, during
the gun debate that Mitch
Mcconnell decided to move
forward with that because he
knew that the roe decision was
coming and he was worried that
abortion and guns would -- they
would lose the suburbs.
Carl: That was too much to bear.
You could have one or the other.
You couldn't have both.
But I think that -- you know,
this is -- this is going to be
really interesting to see how
the parties maneuver around it.
Leigh Ann: Ashley, the former
president Donald Trump had a big
week, too.
His cab dates in -- candidates
in Michigan won, Arizona won and
if you count Eric in Missouri,
his candidate in Missouri won as
well.
So, you know, you --Ed in a to
covering Biden, you have long
covered trump and his circle.
How are they feeling right now?
Do they still think that Donald
Trump is the leader of the
Republican party?
Ashley: They -- they absolutely
think that.
And they're not incorrect.
He is the leader of the
Republican party.
And sort of fealty to the big
lie this false and baseless
claim that the election was
stolen is something that is
incredibly important to him when
he is making endorsements.
And he very much wants to be a
king maker.
What's interesting of course and
there is a difference between
Republican primaries and then a
statewide general election so
Democrats are a little excited
in instances where sort of the
more trumpy, the more fringe,
the more hard right candidate
wins the primary because they
think they have a much better
chance of beating them, you
know, statewide in November.
That said, this is not like and
Carl would remember this well,
when Claire Mccaskill helped
choose her Republican opponent
in 2012, Todd Aiken, someone who
she thought -- correctly thought
would be too fringy and could
not win statewide, if we have
learned anything in the trump
years, it's that these
Republicans espousing conspiracy
theories, sometimes espousing
things that are racist and
sexist, espousing, you know,
lies about the election, they
can get elected.
They may be easier to beat.
But there's also a chance they
could still win.
And then that's not the sort of
house or senate the Democrats
are going to enjoy dealing with
if that ends up being the case.
Leigh Ann: Yeah.
That's absolutely right.
And Asma, I wanted to follow up
with you on that.
Because, you know, it wasn't
just Peter Mayer that did this,
they did this in the Maryland
governor race and tried this and
won, the Maga candidate won in
the Maryland Gotch race and
tried this in California, to
defeat a house member who also
voted to impeach Donald Trump.
Democrats, you know, they --
weren't successful there.
But if these people win, is this -- how are Democrats going
to deal with these members who
are in congress while they're
trying to --
Asma: Liability of a strategy in
my view.
You're playing with fire.
I think any of us who covered
the 2016 election would say,
Democrat I would say by and
large thought Donald Trump
winning the Republican primary
would make their lives easier in
the general election.
We all clearly know how that
played out.
So I think it's a real risky
strategy to assume that the
candidate who espouses sort of
fringe conspiracy theories is
potentially the easier one to
beat.
And that's at the house and
senate level.
I've also been real fascinated
this week you saw election
deniers win I believe -- my
colleagues reporting showed
about six secretary of states
are now -- at least G.O.P.
Candidates for secretary of
state are election deniers.
And those are the folks who hold
the keys to control of democracy
or potentially people who do not
believe in the legitimacy of the
most recent presidential
election.
Leigh Ann: So will conservatives
ever trust an election again,
especially if they win in knows
elections?
Asma: That's a key question in
my view.
And I don't know that we know
how that fully plays out until
we see the results of another
presidential election.
Leigh Ann: Yeah.
Ashley, I want to ask you about
Biden.
His poll numbers continue to
lag.
High 30's.
Democrats have suggested that he -- some Democrats, I should
say, that he not run for
re-election.
But on the other hand, he's had
a couple good weeks.
Do you think that these last
couple of weeks will help to
change that narrative for
president Biden or is the part
just want him to step aside?
Ashley: Well, that's what's
actually been fascinating.
You've seen the handful of
Democrats who have said they
don't think he should run or
they don't think he will run
which for what that is worth,
there's a number of democratic
voters who like him personally
think he's a good guy.
But they don't think -- not just
they don't think he should run.
But they don't think he will
run.
And it does coincide with this
really big stretch of victories
legislative and otherwise.
So the timing is a little
ironic.
Because he's sort of pulling
himself out of what has really
been starting last summer a
pretty -- to this summer pretty
bad year.
I mean, the Biden administration
and Democrats in general, they
want victories.
You need legislative victories.
These are things you can point
to, you can run on, you can
message.
This is better, what is
happening now for president
Biden than not.
But, you know, there are some
concerns about his age.
You do hear even from his
allies, people privately, again,
democratic voters who like him,
that they think he has lost a
step.
But the flip side is if you are
president Biden, and you -- you
feel that you have always been
counted out every single time
you've run for president
including last time when you
were the only Democrat who has
proven yourself capable of
defeating former president
trump.
So in some ways, it's sort of
hardens his resolve.
But it is kind of a fascinating
dichotomy between, you know, a
series of pretty good events for
this president and a lot of
skepticism even from members of
his own party.
Leigh Ann: Carl, bringing it
back to the midterm elections,
what obstacles, what potholes do
Democrats have to worry about in
the next three months?
Carl: I just think inflation is
going to continue to haunt this
election.
And they're going to be able to
point to this bill that they've
named the inflation reduction
act and say look we're reducing
inflation.
But I think that is their big
problem.
Gas prices, I've been around the
country.
And gas is a real concern for
people who have to -- long
commutes.
And you know, I think that just
the general unease about things
and covid and monkeypox and
what's going to happen, but I do
think that they've kind of
righted themselves a little bit
right now.
And are in a better position.
And you know, going back to
the -- to the advertising
strategy, I mean, in Colorado, a
race that people didn't think
would really be on the table,
and it may not yet.
But they backed the -- they
tried to get the conservative in
and help this moderate candidate
who will be running against a
more moderate candidate anyway
against Michael Bennett.
So, you know, there's a feeling
among Democrats that they're in