It’s a rule of war that’s almost reached mythical levels - you never invade Russia in
the winter. The cold, brutal Russian winter wears down soldiers and equipment alike,
and the Russian troops are well-suited to the harsh conditions - after all,
they live there! So enemy forces essentially walk into a buzzsaw. This has not only proven true
for countless local enemies, but for some of the most powerful forces in the world.
It’s enough to make people think Russia truly is unbeatable in winter.
The first time the perils of invading Russia in winter became clear was in 1812,
when Napoleon Bonaparte became a little too big for his pint-sized britches. He had been engaged
in a brutal trade war against the British empire, attempting to blockade them. The Russians had no
interest in participating in this - so Napoleon decided to make an example out of them. His feared
army crossed the Niemen River into Russia, leading a troop unit of up to half a million people. And
within six weeks, half of those soldiers were dead. A combination of extreme weather condtions,
hunger, and illness wore them down, and the Russians engaged in highly effective
guerilla warfare that led to the French losing most of their battles. It wasn’t
just a devastating defeat for French - it set Napoleon down the path to the end of his reign.
But it wasn’t the most disastrous invasion of Russia in the winter.
You know who no one ever says makes good decisions? The Nazis and their leader,
Adolf Hitler. But when it came to Russia, the German dictator actually seemed to have
a sound strategy. He signed a non-aggression pact with Soviet Dictator Joseph Stalin,
the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact, and the two collaborated on an invasion of Poland. But Hitler,
as he always did, eventually lost his mind, and in 1941 - just as the United States would be entering
the war a few months later - the German army invaded Russia in Operation Barbarossa. Hitler
no doubt thought his mighty war machine would run over the Russian troops in a matter of months.
The truth would be anything but.
If you look at the tale of the tape on the German invasion of the Soviet Union, you’ll likely get a
very different picture. After all, Russia suffered the most devastating losses of anyone in the war,
mostly against the German army. It was years of slow, grinding combat in brutal conditions,
with the Russian troops largely being used as human walls to slow down the German advance by
any means necessary. But as much as the Soviet army suffered - it was the Germans who came out
the loser. In the brutally cold Russian winter, Hitler lost countless troops and weapons - and in
the Soviet winter counteroffensive in 1942, the Germans lost 160 miles of ground. In the end,
attempting to attack Russia and staying through the winter forced the Nazis to
face a brutal two-front war that ultimately spelled their undoing.
So is anyone who fights Russia in winter just…doomed?
Not quite, because there is one counter-example,
and Russia should be very worried about it. In the years before World War II came to Russia,
the Soviets invaded the neighboring country of Finland - which offered them useful sea access
and vital resources. But while they had initial success in their invasion, they soon found
themselves facing a massive insurgency - and one that was just as effective at handling the
winter as the Russians. Snipers inflicted massive losses on the Soviets, and eventually hostilities
ceased after about a year of fighting with Russia taking 9% of Finland’s territory. But this time,
the Russian bear was fighting an enemy that could fight them on their own turf.
And history might be about to repeat itself.
Putin has styled himself as a great military leader, less inspired by Stalin than by the famous
Russian emperor Peter the Great. He famously fought off the forces of Sweden in the beginning
of the 18th century, as the Great Northern War stopped before Sweden could reach Moscow. Putin
might be hoping winter will turn the tide once again - but there’s one problem with that. In
all these cases - Sweden, Napoleon, and the Nazis - they were the ones invading Russia. These forces
all faced long-distance slogs in brutal weather, wearing down their supplies and equipment - and
at the end of it, they would find the Russian troops, hunkering down and ready to cut them down.
But this time, Russia isn’t the one being invaded.
Well, if you ask Putin, he’s annexed parts of Ukraine and Ukraine is invading Russia
now. There were referendums, you see - and referendums are usually conducted at gunpoint,
right? But that means that any combat in the coming winter will likely be focused
on short-term gains and losses, as Ukraine continues to chip away at Moscow’s gains
in the eastern part of the country. They may decide to make a move on the Crimean peninsula,
annexed by Russia in 2014, but that’s considered a reach goal and may not be worth it until other
areas are recovered. And that means Ukraine will largely be fighting on its home turf.
Russia, on the other hand, will not be.
Russian troops don’t have some supernatural resistance to the cold that makes them
super-warriors in the winter. Rather, they’re simply used to living in it,
which gives them slightly better resistance - as long as they have the proper equipment. And
that’s Russia’s biggest problem right now. The war has turned the country
into an international pariah, making it near-impossible to get supplies from any
country that isn’t a fellow outlaw nation. The closest they have to a reliable ally is China.
And that means Russian troops could be in for a cold winter.
Russia has lost a lot of troops, and a lot of military equipment with it. It’s believed that
they’re suffering from serious shortages in body armor and tactical gear, which is essential for
effective fighting in winter. Russia is also short on troops, of course - which means Putin
might have to resort to another draft. The last draft saw troops being drafted from all walks of
life and put into combat with little training and outdated gear - and that was during the
warmer months. It was not only seen as a strategic disaster, but it caused massive unrest in Russia.
And it might all come down to timing.
Putin might be repeating the same mistake that Napoleon and Hitler made - invading a country with
the assumption that the war will be over within weeks due to sheer overwhelming force. Much like
Napoleon underestimated Russia’s willingness to fight and Hitler underestimated Stalin’s
willingness to win by any means necessary, Putin did not account for Ukrainian grit - or
for how much his bluster had made NATO feel like he had to be stopped here. And now,
after almost a year of back-and-forth grinding and heavy Russian losses,
winter is settling in - and this time, Putin is likely to be on the losing end.
And it all comes down to who’s prepared and who isn’t.
Ukraine has largely been fighting in place for the last year, advancing when they can
but focusing on mounting a fierce resistance to every Russian push. They’ve learned how to
prepare shelters and emergency supplies for bombing raids - which will be very
useful when it comes to sheltering from harsh weather. Additionally, they have
plenty of aid supplies from their allies, and will likely get regular drops as needed. That
means Ukraine might be well-provisioned to ride out the winter, hunkering down in the
cities they are currently in control of and emerging to deal with the Russians as need be.
The Russians, on the other hand, will be heading into harsh territory.
Imagine, it’s late February. On one hand, we have Vlad, a Russian lawyer
who was plucked out of his day job a few weeks back, given a Cold War-era rifle,
and told to win the war for Russia. On the other hand, you have Ludmilla, a Ukrainian babushka with
a rocket launcher who wants the Russians out of her town. Vlad is entering new territory,
has no clue where to go for refuge or where to get supplies. Ludmilla knows every inch of the town,
and will likely be able to get the drop on Vlad and hide when she needs to. Vlad’s going to die.
So what is about to play out in Ukraine in these final winter months?
Russia might not be well-suited to take over more territory during the winter months,
but they are well-suited to defend it. Ukraine has taken many cities in recent months, and those that
were under Russian occupation are often found in shambles. As the conditions get worse, Ukraine
might dial back its own operations and work on fortifying its territory. They will likely get
continued shipments of aid and weapons from the United States and the rest of Europe, but they’re
not likely to make too many gains until promised stocks of main battle tanks are delivered- which
could be an opportunity for Russia to fortify its own forces, make sure its new units get the proper
training, and work on obtaining supplies from other countries like China, North Korea, and Iran.
But Putin hasn’t made many smart decisions so far in the war.
The loss of Kherson and other major Ukrainian gains in the war have made Putin seem enranged
and unstable, and he’s stepped up his brutal bombardment of Ukraine as a result. He’s
targeting power infrastructure, hoping to freeze them out in the winter - but
a warmer-than-usual European winter has largely foiled those plans. Additionally,
Ukraine is about to deploy the US PATRIOT missile system for the first time,
which will make it more effective at shooting down Russian missiles and drones.
And that could cause Putin to make a historic mistake.
Analysts believe that now Putin is sending a huge number of new recruits into eastern Ukraine,
attempting to consolidate the Donbas and Crimea and maybe take back some conquered
territory. But those troops are running up against a motivated, determined Ukrainian
army equipped with large amounts of NATO gear. Russia will have the vast number advantage,
just like it always does, but if it doesn’t have a plan, that might just mean more Russian troops to
be picked off by Ludmilla before she goes home and makes Borscht and stuffed cabbage for her family.
But a long-range problem is still brewing - for both sides.
Ukraine has the current advantage in the war and that’s likely to continue through the winter - as
long as they continue to have the support of the West. But will that continue if they want to cross
through their current borders and take back Crimea? And loud voices in several countries
are starting to say we’re spending too much on the war - even if it’s still a relatively
minor percentage of the US defense budget. And Russia is likely to have ongoing problems with
supplies and manpower. When the next winter rolls around, it’s likely to pose problems
for both sides if the war is still going - and maybe stop advances in their tracks.
Because it’s not that Russia is the boss when winter rolls around. It’s
that invading Russia - or Finland, or Ukraine - in the winter will result in a
lot of pain. Because in this region, when winter rolls around, winter is the boss.
Want to know more about the new weapon that could change the face of the war? Check out
“Why Putin Is Scared Of US Patriot Missiles In Ukraine” or watch this video instead.