This is Rummy’s Corner.
Coming up on August 21 in a championship contest that will be televised on Fox PPV, Manny Pacquiao
will challenge the unified IBF/WBC welterweight champion Errol Spence Jr. Pacquiao is technically
still the WBA “champion in recess” - whatever the hell that even means - but Pacquiao never
lost the WBA trinket in the ring, and regardless, this is undoubtedly one of the very best welterweight
fights that can be made at this time.
We last saw Spence in action last December when he successfully defended his unified
championship with a 12 round unanimous decision victory against Danny Garcia.
For Spence that was the first fight he had since suffering injuries in a serious car
accident in 2019, and as far as my untrained eye could tell Spence didn’t show any ill
effects.
It was a strong performance from Spence, where he put forth a workmanlike effort.
Spence did what Spence does best, and he was effectively applying pressure against the
talented and durable Garcia.
The last time we saw Pacquiao fight was way back in July of 2019.
Pac-Man had a magical turn-back-the-clock type of performance in that one when he was
awarded a 12 round split decision against Keith Thurman.
With the victory, Pacquiao became the oldest boxer to win a major world title at welterweight,
and he likewise became the first boxer to become a 4 time welterweight champion.
So who will win the fight between Errol Spence Jr and Manny Pacquiao?
Traditional wisdom would suggest that the odds are heavily against Pacquiao.
Not only will it have been more than 25 months since Pacquiao’s last bout, but Pacquiao
is 42 years old.
Allow me repeat that - Pacquiao is 42 years old.
The Pac-Man is no spring chicken.
But at the same time, Pacquiao is no ordinary 42 year old.
He’s a living legend who’s coming off one of his best performances in years, even
if that performance will have happened more than 2 years ago come fight night.
In my humble opinion, what this match-up boils down to is how much does Pacquiao have left
at 42 years old?
If this were a prime welterweight Pacquiao from 10 to 12 years ago, I think most observers
would agree that Pacquiao would be a heavy favorite.
Especially since, in terms of the clash of styles, Pacquiao tended to excel against pressure
boxers.
Prime Pacquiao tended to struggle more against guys who relied more on countering as opposed
to pressure.
In that sense, this style match-up is arguably more favorable for Pac-Man than may have been
the case against Terence Crawford.
But this isn’t a prime Pacquiao, this is 42 year old Pacquiao coming off of his longest
period of inactivity in the professional ranks.
Now it’s possible that the long layoff won’t hurt Pacquiao as much as common wisdom might
otherwise suggest.
Indeed, it’s perhaps even possible than when discussing an extraordinary athlete like
Pacquiao at an advanced age, that maybe the layoff could have helped him in terms of being
fresh.
Maybe.
And maybe stylistically, Pacquiao may still have enough left in his ample bag of tricks
to exploit Spence’s pressure style to his advantage.
But the best case scenario here for Pacquiao is to put forth the type of effort he mustered
back when he beat Thurman.
That victory was, afterall, probably the most significant win in the division over these
last few years - even if Spence has the better overall body of work in the weight class during
that time
But even that version of Pacquiao from the Thuman fight would likely have some major
problems against someone as talented and consistent as Spence.
Because if nothing else, Spence is very consistent and he is exceptionally good at doing what
he does best.
Now I don’t think Pacquiao is likely to get old overnight, because he is a special
boxer.
Obviously, if Pac-Man does get old overnight in this one, Spence will likely dominate the
action for as long as it lasts.
In that case it may wind up being a full circle deal here, where Pacquiao loses against Spence
the same way he broke through at 147, 13 years ago against Oscar De La Hoya.
But assuming Pacquiao doesn’t get old overnight, I still have a difficult time believing that
he will be able to put forth the same type of tremendous effort he did against Thurman.
In other words, I don’t think Pacquiao will “get old overnight”, but I also do not
believe he will exhibit the same form he displayed against Thurman, and that doesn’t bode well
for Pac-Man.
Simply put, I’m having a difficult time envisioning a realistic scenario where Pacquiao
beats Spence.
I’m just not seeing it.
But what the hell do I know?
I don’t know shit about boxing, and Pacquiao has defied the odds throughout his professional
boxing career.
Pacquiao has proven me wrong numerous times.
The only time I ever picked against Pacquiao when I was correct was his first fight against
El Terrible, Erik Morales.
But I was wrong when Pacquiao beat Barrera in their first fight, I was wrong when Pacquiao
beat Morales in their rematch, I was wrong when Pacquiao dominated De La Hoya, I was
wrong when Pacquiao defeated Tim Bradley in their rubber match, and I was wrong when Manny
Pacquiao turned back the clock to beat Keith Thurman.
On the flipside, I’ve been wrong picking Pacquiao as a winner in the past too, such
as his loss in the first fight with Bradley, his loss in his 4th and final fight against
Juan Manuel Marquez, then there was his fight he lost against Jeff Horn, and of course the
bout against Floyd Mayweather Jr.
I genuinely believed Pacquiao would beat Mayweather, and that didn’t happen.
Pacquiao lost those 4 fights, although it should be noted the loss against Bradley was
a controversial one.
But the point is, regarding Pacquiao, I’ve been wrong before and I am not completely
counting him out here.
Pacquiao is too talented and too proven to ever write him off completely.
All of that being said, for my official prediction I am taking Errol Spence Jr by 12 round unanimous
decision.
I think Pacquiao may cause Spence some trouble in the earlier rounds, but ultimately I’m
expecting we will once again see Spence doing what Spence does best, where he works behind
an intelligent jab and applies effective pressure to outbox the old living legend.
But whatever happens, I am very much looking forward to this fight, and may the best man
win on that night.
So who do you think will win between Errol Spence Jr and Manny Pacquiao?
Please share your thoughts in the comments section.
Thanks for watching everyone, I hope you enjoyed, and have a wonderful night.
This is Rummy’s Corner.