Welcome to the Climate
and Water Outlook for July to September 2022.
Despite a relatively dry June we're expecting
wetter than average conditions to return to Eastern and Central Australia
with cooler than average temperatures in parts of the country.
But first, let's take a look at recent conditions.
June for Australia was wetter than average across the north
but drier along the east coast and parts of the south,
including many areas impacted by recent flooding.
New South Wales had one of its ten driest Junes on record
and its first drier than average month since October last year.
Some southern areas that have been dry in recent months had welcome rain in June
including western Victoria and western Tasmania.
It was a very cold start to June across much of the south east.
This saw the most significant early season
snowfalls in the alpine regions since 1968.
In contrast, western and northern Australia
had very warm temperatures in the first half of June.
Bradshaw in the Northern Territory recorded 37.8 degrees on the fifth,
which is Australia's equal second warmest June day on record.
Soils have remained wetter than average across Queensland
and New South Wales.
In south east Australia,
soil moisture has increased in areas that were previously dry,
including parts of Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania.
But soils are drier than usual through southern Western Australia
and also the Northern Territory, which had a very dry end to the wet season.
Water storage levels are generally higher than this time
last year.
Despite the drier month,
the Murray-Darling Basin storages have continued to rise
This is because
catchments remain very wet and water continues to flow through the landscape.
Storages in the south west coast,
south Australian Gulf and Tasmania have also increased over the past month.
So what's likely to influence our climate over the coming months?
While the 2021 to 22
La Niña has come to an end,
La Niña could return in spring,
so we've shifted to a La Niña watch.
La Niña refers to changes in sea surface temperatures
in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
To our west,
a negative Indian Ocean dipole is likely, which typically increases
winter and spring rainfall across much of Australia.
The Indian Ocean dipole refers to differences in sea surface temperatures
between the western and eastern tropical Indian Ocean.
And ocean temperatures are also expected to remain warmer than average around northern Australia.
So what does this mean for the next three months?
There's an increased chance of above average rainfall across
most of the mainland, but it's likely to be drier than usual
in western parts of Tasmania and Western Australia.
Stream flows are also likely to stay higher than average
across eastern Australia over the coming months.
At this time of year,
flows tend to be low in northern regions where it's seasonally dry.
We expect cooler days across central and eastern Australia over the coming
months, but warmer than average days are likely across the far north
the south west and lower south east, including Tasmania.
Most of Australia can expect
warmer than average nights.
There is a very high chance of unusually warm
nights between July and September in the tropical north.
It's currently bushfire season across northern Australia.
There is above normal bushfire potential across parts of the Northern Territory
including the Gulf, Victoria River District and Katherine regions.
So in summary, July to September is likely
to see above average rainfall for most of Australia.
Warmer than average nights,
high stream flows in the east
and increased fire potential in parts of the Northern Territory.
Thanks for joining us.
You can find out more about the outlooks on the Bureau's website.
Bye for now.