Speaker 1: The real climate change risks over the next ten years. Who's telling you the truth about
them? There is so much discussion about we've got eight, ten or 12 years left before total climate
disaster. There is no greater believer than me in the climate science believe. I accept the climate
science to say I believe in it is not even the right term because the climate science is what
it is, regardless of belief. I accept climate science. I believe we have to act and I believe
we have to act now. I also think it's important to be accurate and sober rather than hyperbolic about
the real risks over the next ten years. So let's talk about what those are. There are some risks
that are overblown, at least when thinking about the next decade. One of the most important risks
of climate change over the next ten years is the potential for more extreme weather events. And we
have been seeing some of them heatwaves which are deadly, droughts which can affect food production,
floods which can create and spread disease and cause all sorts of other problems. The negative
impacts of the extreme weather events as a result of climate change are very real. They can damage
infrastructure. They can destroy crops. They can lead to death and affect human health directly.
That's a real risk. And it is now and it is a real risk over the next decade. Another
significant risk from climate change is the potential for sea level rise. That's a real risk
that could have significant impacts on coastal communities already. And over the next ten years,
sea level goes up. It can displace people. It can cause damage to buildings and infrastructure.
Their economic consequences as well as social consequences. And the unrest that would happen
if large populations have to start moving because where they live is underwater. That's that's a
real risk now and over the next ten years. On the other hand, let me give you some examples
of less important risks, particularly over the next ten years. Food production is one often
are. Our food production will be destroyed by climate change and soon is thrown out there.
The best science we have right now does not actually point that way. Slight global warming
could actually be beneficial for agriculture. Doesn't mean we want it, but it just it is what
it is. It could be beneficial. Slightly higher temperatures and slightly higher carbon dioxide
levels in the atmosphere could actually improve crop growth. And there are studies that have shown
that under certain conditions, when you have a little bit higher temperature, a little more CO2,
you can even increase crop yields like for corn and wheat. But also you can increase the land area
on earth where food can be produced on average. So right now, you know, in the future, you could
have a feedback loop that maybe would would point to it. Being bad for food production. But that's
not actually one that is of of concern right now. And that's the best science that we have.
Another example would be the potential for slight changes in global temperature. Now, it's really
important to understand what I'm saying and what I'm not saying here. A rise in global temperature
can have negative impacts. But over the next ten years, the changes from average global
temperature are likely to be extraordinarily small or nonexistent. Now distinguish
temperatures being slightly higher on average is different then acute weather events,
including heatwaves, which absolutely can be deadly. But just it being a little bit warmer
on average is not actually the disaster over the next ten years that some believe that it will be.
Some folks are also concerned about the potential for climate change to cause widespread loss of
biodiversity and accelerate the extinction of certain species. It is absolutely true
that in a feedback loop, climate change can have negative impacts on biodiversity. The
overall risks are considered very low right now compared to other human activities,
like the fact that we're destroying habitats by clearing entire forests as one example and
polluting the air. Okay, so the climate change component effect on biodiversity over the next
ten years is much smaller than a lot of these other things that we are doing. So what's the
takeaway here? The takeaway is it would be best to have two things happen. Number one,
we talk about the risks in the realest scientific terms and if we have a list of
ten possible disasters. But four of them really are acute concerns right now. Let's focus on the
six that are. And number two, let's actually act on the ones that are the biggest risks, because
that's going to have it sort of like the lowest hanging fruit in the impact that we have if you're
interested in this discussion. The book Precipice by Toby Ord discusses a lot of what I'm talking
about in pretty significant detail. Make sure that you are subscribed on the YouTube channel.
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