We're joined by CNN military
analyst, retired Air Force,
Air Force Colonel Cedric Leighton.
Good to have you with us.
Colonel,
I want to get your thoughts, Colonel,
on this long running feud
between promotion
and the defense minister show Shoigu.
It's clear from this posturing,
if we can call it that
the president thinks
he can run this war better Given Russia's
reliance on Wagner,
who do you think
is coming out on top here?
And where does this end for promotion?
What is his aim
Yeah, that's
a very good question, Christine.
It's great to be with you.
The basic problem that the Russians have,
of course, is that their normal military,
the regular armed forces,
those that belong
to the Ministry of Defense,
have not performed
well at all in the aggregate.
When you look at the totality
of the war in Ukraine.
So what precautions aim appears to be
is that he wants to not only tout himself
as being,
in essence, a warlord
or a commander of troops
someone who can actually get things done
in the Ukrainian theater,
but also somebody
who is positioning himself
to replace, at a minimum,
the ministry of defense
as the actual force and possibly subsume
the powers of the Ministry of Defense
and the general staff
of the Russian army,
and then potentially
put himself in line
for succession to Putin.
So this is one of those situations where
you have a very ambitious person
who has to tread very carefully
and in very a clearly dangerous
world of intrigue
within the Russian political hierarchy.
But then at the other end
of the spectrum,
he also has to prove himself
to be a man of action
and a man who can get things done.
And this is
precisely the role
that he is seeking for himself,
whether or not he succeeds.
Of course, it's
a completely different question,
but that seems to be
where promotion is going.
Yeah.
Second in line to Putin is quite a name
and one wonders
how Putin is viewing this
to the battle for back meat.
Colonel, we heard President Lansky,
of course,
recommitting to continue that fight
for a back boot.
How probable is it
that Ukraine are publicly committing
to continue the fight
while privately accepting
that they're going to have to withdraw
quite soon
and in fact, are even making
plans for that right now?
Yeah.
So that always
presents a problem
when the public is watching
something like this.
They hear the public pronouncements and,
you know, the idea that,
you know, we're going to make our stand.
You know, the slogan in Ukraine being
Bermuda still stands.
That is a bit of a dangerous situation
politically and
from a moral standpoint as well.
So the best way, I think,
for the Ukrainian leadership
to move forward
in this particular case
is to accept military reality,
to move their troops,
save as many as they possibly can
and use their new defensive positions
which I would say would be best
to the west of parliament.
I use those as a springboard to capture
and possibly even encircle
some Russian forces as they move forward
and then use it as a springboard
for a further offensive
during the springtime.
So that's a bit of an ambitious goal,
but it's something that the Ukrainians,
if they get
the right
supplies from the West,
if they are resupplied
with ammunition, with weapons systems,
such as drones, AI and possibly
other things,
but they're definitely going
to get drones and artillery shells.
So these are going to be
the important things
that they will need in order to prosecute
at least part of the counteroffensive.
And that's really what
they should be focused on.
And on your point, Colonel,
on the counter-offensive to come,
we know that the
the losses suffered
by Russia have been immense
on the battlefield.
NATO's saying that it has been five times
that of Ukrainian soldiers.
So even if Ukraine are defeated,
in bad mood,
how much of a tactical advantage
will they have in those counter offenses
to come purely
because they have ground
the Russians down and managed
to hold that line
Yeah, I think it's
it is a major advantage.
Now, the one thing that we have to
keep in
mind is a bit of a caveat
is that the Russian personnel
strength is much higher
than the Ukrainian
just in terms of
the population in pre-war Ukraine
had about a fourth
of the population
of the Russian Federation.
And about a 10th
the size of its defense budget.
So that's the paper difference.
However, the real difference,
the one that you see on
the battlefield,
is one in which the Ukrainians
have a decided advantage
because they have tremendous command
and control capabilities.
They give initiative
to the lower ones,
which the Russians do not do.
And it's a much
better organized
military structure on the Ukrainian side.
So the Ukrainians can use
what happened in Bermuda,
as they've actually publicly
said, as
a way
to have ground down
a lot of the Russian forces.
But they have to be very careful
that they themselves
don't get caught in
that vortex around Bermuda
and that they can, in essence, live
to fight another day.
Colonel, it is always very
valuable
to have your perspective on this,
especially as
we are trying to figure out what comes next.
Thank you for your time.