Welcome to the Climate and Water Outlook for January to March 2017.
Summer is underway and we've already had bushfires, heatwaves and storms—but no tropical cyclones yet.
The outlook for the first quarter of 2017 suggests a dry and warm start to the year,
particularly in eastern Australia, with raised fire potential.
First, let's wrap up winter and spring.
After a very dry start to the year, and despite continued dry conditions in southwest WA,
it was Australia’s wettest May to September on record, bringing flooding to parts of the east.
Nowhere was this change more obvious than in Tasmania, which had its driest seven months
on record to April 2016, immediately followed by its wettest seven months on record for
May to November.
However, the above average rain eased in October for most places.
Water storages in the eastern states are still much healthier than this time last year,
thanks to the winter and spring rains.
The rains also meant soil moisture was very high across eastern Australia through to October.
But dry, warm and windy conditions in November and December have seen soils drying very quickly.
Vegetation in many areas responded to the wet soils with strong growth in winter and spring.
The dry end of the crop season was ideal for harvest, with the Department of Agriculture
forecasting record-high yields.
The warm conditions and drying soils have seen heat build up across inland parts of the country.
Only two days into summer, severe heatwaves affected Queensland and New South Wales, and
there were bushfires in some southern States.
So what's driving Australia’s climate right now?
Waters to our northwest remain warmer than normal, which may increase rainfall
and cyclone activity in that area.
In the tropical Pacific, ENSO has dipped close to La Niña at times during the year.
Conditions now show it's unlikely to form in the next few months, so our ENSO Outlook
has moved back from La Niña WATCH to INACTIVE.
So what's the rainfall outlook for January to March 2017?
Below-average rainfall is likely over parts of eastern Australia, with above-average rainfall
expected in the northwest of Western Australia.
Outlook accuracy is moderate at this time of year.
While we've yet to have our first tropical cyclone of 2016–17, we're still expecting
an average to above-average number of tropical cyclones this season.
Turning to the streamflow forecast for December 2016 to February 2017: Near-median streamflows
are expected at most forecast locations, as soil moisture returns to normal after the
very wet winter and spring.
Accuracy for our streamflow forecasts is moderate to high at this time of year, with
highest accuracy in the south.
In terms of temperatures: Days and nights are likely to be warmer than average for
eastern Australia, but cooler than average in Tasmania and parts of WA.
Accuracy for this outlook is moderate at this time of year.
The seasonal bushfire outlook for southern Australia was updated at the end of November.
More areas now have above-normal fire potential for summer, particularly grasslands in Victoria
and inland New South Wales.
So in summary: rainfall is likely to be below average over parts of eastern Australia; streamflows
are returning to near-median; temperatures are expected to be warmer than average
in the east; and heatwave and bushfire potential is raised.
For more details, go to our website at bom.gov.au/climate/ahead.
You can also get updates via Facebook and Twitter, or download our new BOM Weather app.
Our next video will be released on Wednesday 25 January 2017.
Until then, have a happy and safe festive season!
For the Bureau of Meteorology, I’m Andrew Watkins.