On 1 January 2024, Ethiopia and Somaliland signed a landmark agreement.
In return for access to the strategically vital Red Sea, landlocked Ethiopia appears
ready to recognise Somaliland as an independent country.
This news has been greeted with jubilation in Somaliland.
Internationally shunned since declaring independence from Somalia 30 years ago, the deal is seen
as the long-awaited step that could open the way for its full acceptance on the world stage,
even leading to UN membership.
But is this really the big breakthrough that Somaliland has yearned for?
Hello and welcome.
If you're new to the channel, my name is James Ker-Lindsay, and here I take an informed look
at international relations, conflict, security, and statehood.
State recognition is central to modern international relations.
It's how countries accept one another as nominal equals and affirm their place in the community
of sovereign nations.
While many legal scholars would argue that a state can exist without recognition, formal
acceptance is, in fact, crucial for countries.
It opens the way for diplomatic relations and facilitates trade, security, and general
cooperation.
It also bolsters a country's broader international legitimacy, enabling it to participate in
global and regional organisations, such as the United Nations.
On top of this, it's also vital for a country's security.
Recognition helps to safeguard a state's borders by creating internationally accepted boundaries.
As a result, breakaway territories and de facto states worldwide are desperately chasing
recognition.
One of the most significant examples is Somaliland.
Over 30 years, it's built up the institutions and structures of a full-fledged country.
However, despite persistent efforts, it's never persuaded another state to recognise
its independence.
But there are suggestions that this is set to change, potentially opening the way for
full international recognition and for Somaliland to even become the next member of the United
Nations.
Somaliland lies in the Horn of Africa.
At around 180,000 square kilomtres, or 70,000 square miles, the territory would be the 89th
largest member of the United Nations.
With the Red Sea running along its northern coast, to its northwest is Djibouti, to its
East is the Puntland region of Somalia, with which it has a territorial dispute.
To its west and south is Ethiopia.
The population is estimated to be around 6 million.
Ethnically Somali and adhering to Sunni Islam, the Somalilanders predominantly belong to
the Isaak clan - one of the main groups comprising the complex Somali clan structure.
The modern history of Somaliland can be traced back to European imperial expansion in Africa
in the late 19th century when Britain, France, and Italy all established colonial control
over the areas inhabited by the Somali people in Eastern Africa.
This continued until after the Second World War, when decolonisation began.
On 25 June 1960, British Somali land gained its independence.
But its statehood was short-lived.
Five days later, it merged with the newly independent Italian Somaliland to form the
Somali Republic.
While Somaliland now contest the legality of the union, it was initially welcomed as
a step towards the union of all the Somali peoples of the region.
But problems soon emerged.
Tensions quickly grew between the two parts, which had very different histories and were
divided by clan affiliation.
After Northern military officers staged a coup to restore independence in 1961, the
South stripped Somaliland of its autonomy.
Matters then became even more difficult in October 1969, when the country's democratic
government was overthrown and replaced by a military dictatorship under General Mohamed
Siad Barre, the commander of Somalia's armed forces.
Pushing an aggressive Somali nationalism, he ruthlessly suppressed any separatism in
the north.
But everything changed in January 1991.
After two decades in power, Barre was overthrown and fled Somalia.
As the South descended into anarchy and inter-clan conflict, the north seized its opportunity
to reclaim its independence, proclaiming the creation of the Republic of Somaliland on
18 May 1991.
In the years that followed, Somaliland consolidated its statehood.
While Somalia sank deeper into civil War, Somaliland was seen as an oasis of peace and
security in the Horn of Africa, with effective state structures and democratic institutions.
But although Somaliland began to establish relations with outside actors, regularly engaging
with British and American officials as well as African political figures, its efforts
to gain full recognition went nowhere.
Despite arguing that the ongoing political instability in Somalia and its previous Independence
merited acceptance as a sovereign independent state, no country wanted to be the first to
break ranks and accept its independence.
But behind the scenes, there appeared to be growing sympathy for Somaliland.
In 2005, the African Union sent a fact-finding mission to Somaliland.
In its final report, it recommended recognition.
Highlighting the country's steps towards becoming a modern state, it noted that Somaliland's
situation was "unique and self-justified in African political history".
Therefore, as the report noted, the case should not be linked to the idea of opening a Pandora's
Box.
While this seemed to offer Somaliland a path to eventual full international recognition,
Western countries were still reluctant to go first.
As they saw it, the initial step had to come from the African Union or a group of African
States.
But despite the steer from the fact-finding mission, no African consensus emerged and
Somaliland remained unrecognised.
It's against this backdrop that news broke on 1 January 2024 that Ethiopia and Somaliland
had signed a memorandum of understanding.
Carried out at a high-profile event in the Ethiopian Capital, Addis Ababa, it was over
seen by the Ethiopian Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed Ali.
Although the exact terms of the agreement - which is a legally non-binding statement
of intent - have not been revealed, it's understood that this will grant Ethiopia a long-term
lease over a port facility on the Red Sea for both commercial and military naval use.
However, it was what Somaliland gets in return that proved particularly controversial.
Speaking to the audience gathered for the signing, the Somaliland president, Musa Bihi
Abdi, stated that under the deal, Ethiopia recognises Somaliland.
Although the announcement has been greeted with jubilation in Somaliland, there's confusion
about what it really means - legally and politically.
For example, the suggestion that the agreement amounts to recognition already doesn't, in
fact, seem to be correct.
Under international law, recognition is fundamentally about intent.
A state can't accidentally recognise another state.
There must be an intention to do so.
More to the point, in contested cases like this, there's an expectation that a clear
statement of recognition will occur.
Secondly, a state can in fact have incredibly close relations with a territory and still
not recognise it.
And even signing a treaty doesn't always amount to recognition.
So far, there's little sign that Addis Ababa has in fact formally recognised Somaliland.
The Ethiopian statement put out about the agreement didn't state anything about recognition.
Moreover, it was also careful not to use the term 'Republic of Somaliland'.
Likewise, Somaliland's full title wasn't used during the signing ceremony, even though Ethiopia's
full name was.
For all these reasons, while this is certainly a crucial step, it doesn't amount to recognition
- at least at this stage.
With all this said, though, the Ethiopian statement does appear to lay the foundations
for possible future recognition.
The fact that it highlights Somaliland's independence before the union with Italian Somaliland is
an important signal - even though prior Independence is not seen as justification for a territory
to reclaim independence later under international law.
All this naturally raises the question of whether Ethiopia will in fact push ahead with
recognition, and, if so, when?
At this stage, it's hard to tell on both counts.
One thing that works in Somaliland's favour is that Ethiopia desperately wants access
to the Red Sea.
This was highlighted by Abiy Ahmed in a speech he made in late 2023 that led to fears that
Ethiopia was considering a war against neighbouring Eritrea to regain the maritime access it lost
when the latter gained its independence in 1993.
But balanced against this there are the broader implications of recognition.
For a start, it will damage relations with neighbouring Somalia.
Already, Mogadishu has signalled its fury about the agreement.
Denouncing the MoU, it's passed a law declaring it null and void.
Somalia has also insisted that it will do whatever it takes to preserve its territorial
integrity.
Calling the move an act of aggression, Somalia has also suggested that it's willing to consider
military options.
While at one stage, this may have been seen as wholly unrealistic, especially given the
precarious nature of the Somali state and its ongoing battles against Islamist insurgents,
things are changing.
Somaliland's position isn't as strong as it once was, especially following recent fighting
in the disputed eastern area of Las Anod.
The question then becomes whether Ethiopia would be prepared to go the full way to defend
Somaliland.
Significantly, since the signing of the agreement, Ethiopian and Somaliland army commanders have
met to discuss joint security.
On a side note, this raises another significant point.
While many Somalilanders are jubilant about the deal, things aren't as simple as they
seem.
Many are deeply concerned, fearing the presence of Ethiopian troops on their territory.
Indeed, the defence minister has resigned over the memorandum of understanding, arguing
that Ethiopia remains the country's number one enemy.
But given the pressure, one suspects Ethiopia may yet back off from full recognition., instead
offering other financial and security incentives to keep the deal intact.
But even if it does press ahead, the question is whether it will prompt other African states
to follow its lead.
This is where things could get complicated for Somaliland.
Ordinarily, Ethiopian recognition would have been a hugely important step given its place
as Africa's second most populous country.
However, the fact that any recognition would be tied to the port deal may undermine the
Somaliland cause.
Rather than see recognition as a principled step, many countries may instead see it as
a transactional move.
This could put them off from following suit.
Meanwhile, Somalia's strong opposition to the move may also undermine Somaliland's hopes
for broader acceptance.
Having already restated its sovereignty over Somaliland, Mogadishu will undoubtedly try
to persuade others that any Ethiopian recognition is merely about Ethiopian self-interest and
would in fact destabilise African borders more broadly.
Although Somaliland will again stress that there are reasonable justifications for recognition,
as already acknowledged by the African Union, countries often stick together in these cases.
States don't want to open dangerous new precedents, especially in Africa - a patchwork of colonial
borders.
Many countries will also be nervous about opening the question of borders when the sanctity
of state boundaries is being increasingly challenged internationally.
More worryingly for Somaliland, there have also been signs that crucial international
actors and now stepping back from the possibility of recognition.
While there's still considerable support for Somaliland in many quarters, there's also
a nervousness about what this would mean for Somalia.
Most notably, despite its earlier signals that it could yet recognise Somaliland, the
United States has now stated its full support for Somalia's territorial integrity within
its 1960 borders.
Additionally, several other significant regional actors have lined up behind some Somalia,
including Egypt and Turkey.
This is crucial.
As well as having diplomatic clout, both could support Mogadishu if a conflict does emerge.
For all these reasons, while the memorandum of understanding has been hailed as a significant
step forward for Somaliland, there are good reasons to suspect that Ethiopian recognition
is far from guaranteed.
More to the point, even if it does happen, it may do little to advance Somaliland's recognition
on the world stage.
After decades of trying to secure international acceptance, and for all the optimism at the
time at the signing, the deal with Ethiopia may yet be a somewhat less significant breakthrough
than Somaliland desperately hope for.
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