From News 19, I'm meteorologist Daniel Bonds.
Hurricane season officially begins
on June 1st. Here we are May 22nd,
and we're watching at least one
area in the tropics for a small
chance for potential development.
But we can and do have storms before
the official start of hurricane season.
That's pretty common,
but you see our hurricane frequency
as we get through time here.
The peak of the season is September 10th,
and then after that.
At least typically,
our hurricane and tropical
storm activity does decrease.
The season ends on November
30th and we can't have storms
after November 30th as well.
So far this season, no name storms,
but May 11th they had to go back.
According to National Hurricane Center,
this was a unnamed subtropical
storm in mid January, so this was.
On May 11th.
This was.
The post storm analysis,
the National Hurricane Center did determine
that this was a subtropical storm.
So it was the first storm,
at least officially of the season.
But it won't be named,
so it won't be a named storm at this point.
We're continuing to get those
hurricane forecast in Colorado State.
They issued theirs earlier this year
and they're forecasting 13 named storms,
6 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes.
Here's the average between 1991
and twenty 2014 1/2 or so.
A little over 7 hurricanes and
about three major hurricanes.
Last year we had 14-8 and two,
NOAA will announce their 2023 Atlantic
hurricane season outlook on Thursday.
So we'll get a another outlook.
So this will be issued on Thursday from NOAA.
That is obviously the official one,
but a lot of products come out when
you're talking about named storms.
Speaking of named storms,
here are the named storms for 2023.
Arlene, Brett, Cindy, Don, Emily.
You can read all of them there.
Franklin, Gert, Harold.
Hopefully we won't get too
far into this list,
but there is those names for 2023.
Now water temperatures obviously
pretty warm in the Gulf of Mexico
and along the Gulf Stream,
so you see these warm waters moving in from.
The South and then kind of moving
up towards the north and east,
a little bit warmer than normal.
The yellow colors indicate above
normal temperatures at this
point and the blue is here are
indicating below normal temperature.
So our waters are a little bit
above normal at this point.
And as we mentioned,
we are watching 1 area in the tropics.
You see this one down here,
it's not too far away from the Bahamas,
just east of the Bahamas
Hurricane Center gives it.
Not a 10% chance of further
development over the next two days.
So that's something we'll be watching
probably won't have any impact
or our weather is going to move
generally towards the north and east,
but a little bit later in our work week,
a low pressure is expected to form
somewhere along the Southeastern
coast that could impact the weather.
At least for the beach weather
over the weekend,
over the Memorial Day weekend.
So here is the tropical forecast.
This is kind of comparing
the two global models.
This is comparing the American
and the European model.
And you'll notice here the American
model showing an area of low pressure,
European model showing kind of a
broad area of of of low pressure.
And then as we go into Saturday afternoon,
both models showing at least some type of
low pressure off the southeastern coast,
it looks like.
On Saturday.
So you're talking about pretty good
chance at least for some rain even if
this thing doesn't turn into anything
and then it does kind of move towards
the Outer Banks of North Carolina.
Here's the European forecast model and it
shows kind of basically the same thing.
That 10% BLOB we're watching continues
to move towards the North and east.
But you look at here on Friday morning,
broad area,
low pressure starting to develop and it
kind of moves towards North Carolina.
This would be Saturday, May 27th.
And you see a lot of rainfall.
So if you do have those plans to head to
the beach of the Memorial Day weekend,
there probably will be some
rain at this point.
The American model shows
basically the same thing.
This is Friday,
May 26th,
and you'll notice a broad area
area of low pressure.
They're kind of moving into North Carolina.
So both of the global models
kind of showing the same thing.
So that's something we'll kind of
have to watch for over the weekend.
Typically early season storms do form
in this kind of bluish area here.
So it's not uncommon at all to have
a storm develop in that area right
off the coast of South Carolina,
North Carolina and Georgia,
basically the same thing for Georgia,
it's up the area that they start
develop do kind of gradually
increases out towards the West.
That's the case in August as well.
You'll notice the the area continues
to expand September and then
as we get to October that area.
Of development kind of decreases and
certainly as we go into November,
that area shrinks even more.
So again, hurricane season,
a very long season.
Now last year we were impacted or
at least somewhat impacted I'll
say by three storms.
Nicole brought some rain to
parts of the Palmetto State,
you see Ian there and Colin as well.
So three named storms at least
had somewhat of an impact on us
in South Carolina last year,
but here we are.
On May 22nd,
hurricane season begins
officially on June 1st,
but we'll continue to follow
hurricane season.
It's a long season.
We'll be watching that one area that
the Hurricane Center is watching,
and we'll also have to pay attention
to the potential for that low to
develop off the southeastern coast.
Maybe impact in beach weather
over the weekend.