England take on Belgium in the Group G decider, with both teams on six points and plus six
goal difference.
Roberto Martinez has already hinted at changes for the game, with Michy Batshuayi potentially
getting a start to rest Romelu Lukaku, and Eden Hazard dropping out, with maybe Youri
Tielemans or even Thorgan Hazard popping in to replace the Chelsea man.
Whether Gareth Southgate will want to trade a possible loss of momentum for giving some
squad players game time remains to be seen, but England can be confident against Belgium,
and not just if Martinez rests his stars.
Against Tunisia especially, two weaknesses stood out in Belgium’s overall defensive
shape.
Firstly, the wing backs had a tendency to sit off when Tunisia built from the back.
This meant that Belgium’s defensive posture was a quite narrow 5-3-2, with Lukaku and
one other defending centrally, and the three across midfield expected to flex across.
While Kevin de Bruyne did press quite assertively at time, Axel Witsel’s inclination is to
sit, and this afforded Tunisia the sort of space down either flank to run into that England
will be well-placed to exploit.
Secondly, and as an off-shoot of this, Tunisia and Panama were both able to switch play easily
across their back line, as Belgium’s sitting off in the wide space meant that there was
a lot of space on the opposite flank.
This was especially the case going from left to right, or towards Belgium’s left hand
side, as Yannick Carrasco still does not look entirely comfortable with where he should
line up.
If England can switch play rapidly across from one side to the other, especially looking
to exploit Kyle Walker’s abilty to carry the ball into space and link with the excellent
Kieran Trippier, this could well allow England space into which they can move.
Should England target their right-hand side – Belgium’s left – Trippier and whoever
plays on the right-hand side of midfield, probably Ruben Liftus-Cheek, will do one of
two things: they will either find a lot of space in behind Carrasco as the left wing
back gets sucked forwards, or have room to run into should Carrasco stick in a five man
defensive line.
Alternatively space will open up in the inside right channel as Witsel moves over, possibly
with Belgium’s left-sided centre-back, to counter the overload.
This will allow Henderson to push up, Lingard to move over, or even Sterling and Kane to
drop off; England’s ability to overload that flank should pay dividends either way,
and Jan Vertonghen had to cover over numerous times against Tunisia and Panama, showing
that this is a consistent weakness in Belgium’s defensive structure.
Set-pieces are an area of England strength and Belgium conceded from one against Tunisia.
It’s hard to say that the Tunisian free-kick was that well worked, either; the main issue
was that one marker got sucked into staying with a player who didn’t move, while two
failed to react quickly enough to several players making quick runs.
This bodes well for England, though.
Their set-piece against Panama for the fourth goal was a beautifully worked example of a
deliberate ploy.
Instead of shaping a long ball towards the back post, as they had done earlier in the
game from a similar position only to see a player head over, Henderson ran in onto the
short pass from Trippier, changed the angle of attack towards Kane, who set up Sterling.
His effort was well saved, and John Stones tucked in the rebound.
Belgium looked flat-footed defending set-pieces, and England have shown not just imagination
in how they are worked, but also in swapping players over in roles, so that sometimes it’s
Kane following in at the far post, sometimes Stones, and so on.
This will cause issues for Martinez’s side, and England should profit.
Defensively, England will still be tested by Belgium, though should Martinez rest Lukaku
and Hazard, England will be able to push forwards more, less concerned about leaving Lukaku
one on one with a defender or getting caught out by Hazard’s brilliance with the ball
at his feet.
De Bruyne will obviously need to be watched, and Southgate could sacrifice some of England’s
attacking momentum by asking Loftus-Cheek, or even Eric Dier, to drop off an cover Belgium’s
playmaker and force him to play the ball wide, rather than his excellent, vertical passes.
England should resist that, though.
They have shown that they can effectively control the tempo of games, albeit against
weaker opposition.
By playing their own game rather than adjusting too much, and by keeping possession, working
the ball from side to side, and looking to exploit Belgium’s issues down the left,
England can record an important win at Russia 2018.