>>> GOOD MORNING.
DONALD TRUMP IS THE 45th
PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
AND THAT MEANS CHANGE ACROSS THE
BOARD IN THE UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT.
HERE TO TALK ABOUT WHAT KINDS OF
CHANGES WE CAN EXPECT, DR. MARK
JONES, FELLOW IN POLITICAL
SCIENCE AT THE BAKER INSTITUTE
FOR PUBLIC POLICY AT RICE
UNIVERSITY.
AND DR. BRANDON ROTTINGHAUS,
POLITICAL SCIENCE PROFESSOR AT
THE UNIVERSITY OF HOUSTON.
GOOD MORNING TO BOTH OF YOU.
>> GOOD MORNING.
>> PEACEFUL TRANSITION OF POWER.
WE'VE HEARD THAT A LOT.
THIS IS CERTAINLY A PEACEFUL
TRANSITION.
BUT IT'S ALSO SEEMS LIKE THIS
ONE IS A LITTLE BIT MORE
INTERESTING THAN PREVIOUS
TRANSITIONS.
WHAT'S YOUR TAKE ON WHAT'S GOING
TO BE HAPPENING HERE?
>> WELL, IT'S DONALD TRUMP.
SO WE'RE IN A BRAVE NEW WORLD.
BUT YOU REALLY HAVE A CONTRACT
BETWEEN TWO PRESIDENTS IN TERMS
OF BARAK OBAMA, MORE SERIOUS,
FOCUSED ON POLICY.
TRUMP MORE BRAGGING, MORE
CONSERVATIVE POLICY.
AND SO IT'S BEEN A ROCKIER
TRANSITION.
CERTAINLY WE HAVEN'T SEEN THE
LEVEL OF COOPERATION THAT WE SAW
IN 2008-2009 WHEN GEORGE W. BUSH
AND PRESIDENT OBAMA REALLY
ENGAGED IN A VERY COOPERATIVE,
PRODUCTIVE TRANSITION WHERE THEY
REALLY WORKED AS A TEAM TO SORT
OF STEER THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE
CRISIS THAT WAS FACING AT THE
TIME.
>> PRESIDENT OBAMA ON THE
SURFACE, THE OPTICS WERE WE WANT
THIS PRESIDENT TO SUCCEED AND IT
WAS VERY, AT LEAST THE WAY IT
LOOKED, THEY WERE BEING VERY
COOPERATIVE.
WHAT'S THE DIFFERENCE THIS TIME
AROUND?
>> I THINK THE DIFFERENCE IS
JUST LIKE MARK SAID.
THERE IS A LOT MORE FRICTION
BETWEEN THE TWO PARTIES.
POLARIZATION IS HIGHER THAN IT
WAS.
I THINK PERSONALLY THERE IS A
LOT MORE CONFLICT.
THERE IS A GREAT STORY ABOUT
TRANSITION FROM JIMMY CART TORE
PRESIDENT REAGAN AND THE CARTER
TEAM HAD PRODUCED THESE GIANT
BINDERS OF INFORMATION AND SPENT
WEEKS AND WEEKS PREPARING THESE
AND THEY LITERALLY LEFT THE
WHITE HOUSE WITH THEM BECAUSE
THE REAGAN TEAM DENY WANT THEM.
THERE IS A THING ABOUT
TRANSTOYINGS POWER BECAUSE ONCE
POLITICS GET INVOLVED, THINGS
SPIN OUT OF CONTROL.
WE'VE SEEN THIS REFLECTED, I
THINK, IN THE NUMBERS FOR TRUMP.
HIS NUMBERS IN TERMS OF CURRENT
APPROVAL ARE LOWER THAN WE'VE
SEEN SINCE JIMMY CARTER WAS
TRANSITIONED TO PRESIDENT.
THIS IS SOMETHING I THINK
REFLECTS THAT POLITICS WHICH
MESSES EVERYTHING UP.
>> SOME OF THE OPTICS, I KNOW IN
2008, AFTER THE INAUGURATION,
REPUBLICANS GOT TOGETHER AND
SAID WE WANT TO MAKE THIS
PRESIDENT A ONE-TERM PRESIDENT.
THERE WAS THAT OPTIC.
THIS TIME AROUND WITH PRESIDENT
OBAMA SAYING WE WANT THIS
PRESIDENT TO SUCCEED,
REMEMBERING THAT IN 2008, DONALD
TRUMP AT THAT TIME W LEADING
THE BIRTHER MOVEMENT TO MAKE
PRESIDENT OBAMA SEEM
ILLEGITIMATE IN TERMS OF A
PRESIDENT.
NOW WE HAVE THIS PARTICULAR
PRESIDENT COMI IN WITH
PROTESTS AND, IN FACT, SOME
PEOPLE LIKE DEMOCRATS AL GREEN
SAYING THAT HE WAS NOT GOING TO
ATTEND THE INAUGURATION.
THIS IS WHY HE SAID HE WOULDN'T
DO IT.
>> I CANNOT PARTICIPATE IN THE
INAUGURATION OF A PERSON WHO
CALLS WOMEN DOGS, WHO WOULD BAR
MUSLIM FROM THIS COUNTRY, WHO
HAS INSULTED A GOLD STAR FAMILY,
WHO HAS INSULTED LATINOS, WHO
HAS MADE IT VERY COMFORTABLE FOR
PEOPLE WHO PROMOTE BIGOTRY AND
HATE TO BE COMFORTABLE WITH HIS
RHETORIC AND HIS CAMPAIGN.
>> SO IN THAT KIND OF
ENVIRONMENT, HOW LIKELY IS THAT
TO IMPACT THIS ADMINISTRATION AS
IT TRIES TO GET GOING, OR IS
THAT TO BE EXPECTED?
>> IT MAKES IT A LITTLE MORE
DIFFICULT.
FOR INSTANCE, HAVING OVER 60
MEMBERS OF CONGRESS SAY THEY'RE
NOT GOING TO ATTEND YOUR
INAUGURATION, THAT'S
SIGNIFICANT.
THAT HASN'T HAPPENED IN THE PAST
TO THIS DEGREE.
IT'S GOING TO MAKE IT MORE
DIFFICULT FOR TRUMP BECAUSE IN
THE PAST, PRESIDENTS AFTER THEIR
ELECTION, HAVE TRIED TO BROADEN
THEIR SUPPORT, REACHED OUT TO
PEOPLE ACROSS THE AISLE.
AND YOU SEE POPULARITY AND
APPROVAL RATINGS RISEN.
TRUMP HASN'T DONE THAT.
HE'S STARTING OFF WITH A WEAKER
BASE OF SUPPORT.
LOW APPROVAL RATING.
UNLESS HE CAN GET THOSE TO GO
UP, IT'S GOING TO BE HARDER FOR
HIM TO PUSH THROUGH HIS AGENDA,
ESPECIALLY AFTER HE GETS OUT OF
THE HONEYMOON PERIOD.
>> MOST OF THE TIME WHEN A NEW
PRESIDENT COMES IN, EX COUNTS ON
THE BASE OF HIS OWN PARTY.
IN THIS CASE, MAYBE, CERTAINLY A
LOT OF REPUBLICANS HAVE SAID
OKAY.
WE HAVE A NEW PRESIDENT.
WE CAN DO THIS.
BUT PEOPLE SOMETIMES FORGET THAT
BEFORE HE WON, HE DIDN'T HAVE A
WHOLE LOT OF SUPPORT FROM HIS
OWN.
>> YEAH.
I THINK YOU ARE BOTH RIGHT.
YOU DEFINITELY HAVE A HONEYMOON
PERIOD FOR PRESIDENTS.
THE PROBLEM IS THAT HONEYMOONS
REQUIRE YOU TO BE NICE AND PLAY
WELL WITH OTHERS.
IF YOU'RE NOT DOING THAT, THEN
IT'S GOING TO CREATE A SERIOUS
AMOUNT OF FRICTION.
I THINK IT'S GOING TO BE A
POLITICAL PROBLEM FOR THE
PRESIDENT THAT YOU'VE GOT THESE
PEOPLE WHO ARE BOYCOTTING SOME
OF THE FESTIVITIES.
THERE IS A SYMBOLIC ROLE THAT
THAT PLAYS.
BUT I THINK THERE IS ALSO
SUBSTANTIVE IMPACT WHERE IF YOU
CAN'T HIT THE GROUND RUNNING,
EVEN IF YOU HIT THE GROUND WITH
BRISK STRIDE, YOU'RE STILL NOT
GETTING THE MOMENTUM YOU NEED
FOR THE FIRST 100 DAYS.
WHICH IS A CRITICAL PHASE FOR
THE PRESIDENTS TO SET THE TONE.
>> A RECENT POLL SHOWED
MR. TRUMP WITH A FAIRLY LARGE
DISAPPROVAL RATING OF ABOUT 50%.
GEORGE W. BUSH WAS NEAR 25%.
PRESIDENT OBAMA NEAR 14%
DISAPPROVAL, TO WHICH PRESIDENT
TRUMP RESPONDED VIA TWITTER, THE
SAME PEOPLE WHO DID THE PHONY
ELECTION POLLS AND WERE SO WRONG
ARE NOW DOING APPROVAL RATING
POLLS.
THEY ARE RIGGED JUST LIKE
BEFORE.
DOES HE HAVE A POINT?
>> I MEAN, HE HAS A POINT IN THE
SENSE THAT THE POLLS DID HAVE
SOME ERRORS, PARTICULARLY AT THE
STATE LEVEL.
KEEP IN MIND, THEY WERE OFF BY
TWO OR THREE OR FOUR POINTS.
THEY WEREN'T OFF BY TEN POINTS.
ALSO THEY WERE TRYING TO MEASURE
PEOPLE WHO WERE GOING TO TURN
OUT TO VOTE.
THAT'S TRICKY TO ACTUALLY
PREDICT WHO IS GOING TO VOTE.
THESE APPROVAL RATINGS ARE
MEASURING ALL REGISTERED VOTERS,
OR ALL AMERICANS.
AND SO MAYBE THEY'RE MISSING IT
BY THREE OR FOUR POINTS.
BUT ALL THE SAME, TRUMP IS STILL
ENTERING AS THE PRESIDENT WITH
THE LOWEST APPROVAL RATINGS IN
THE MODERN ERA.
>> A REMINDER OF THE KIND OF
RELATIONSHIP THAT THIS PRESIDENT
IS LIKELY TO HAVE WITH THE MEDIA
AND THE PICK UP, IS IT NOT?
>> YEAH.
WE SAW LOTS OF FIREWORKS IN HIS
FIRST PRESS CONFERENCE AS
PRESIDENT-ELECT.
I THINK WE'LL SEE MUCH THE SAME.
THIS IS NOT GOOD FOR HIM.
THE FACT THAT THEY'RE NOT ABLE
TO CONTROL THE MESSAGE IS GOING
TO HAMPER THEIR ABILITY TO
COMMUNICATE WITH THE AMERICAN
PEOPLE.
HE HAS HIS CORE SUPPORTERS.
LIKE MARK SAID, THERE ARE PEOPLE
HE CARES ABOUT WHO WILL VOTE OR
NOT GO VOTE.
BUT THERE IS STILL A NEED FOR
HIM TO BE ABLE TO TALK TO THE
AMERICAN PEOPLE BROADLY BECAUSE
HE NEEDS THAT PERSUASION TO BE
SUCCESSFULLY TRANSITIONED.
BUT HE ALSO NEEDS THERE TO BE
REPRESENTATION.
>> HE SAYS THAT TWEETING GIVES
HIM A CHANCE TO MAKE THAT
COMMUNICATION.
HE'S THE FIRST TWEETING
PRESIDENT WE'VE HAD.
THIS IS GOING TO BE A CHANCE FOR
HIM TO DO THAT AND BYPASS THE
MEDIA.
SMART MOVE?
>> I THINK IT'S SMART IF IT'S
THE CASE THAT YOU ONLY CARE
ABOUT THE PEOPLE YOU'RE TALKING
TO.
THAT'S AN ELECTORAL MOVE.
IF HE WANTS TO HAVE A BROADER
REPRESENTATIVE, SORT OF SENSE OF
HOW THE PRESIDENCY FUNCTIONS,
THEN HE CAN'T JUST TALK TO
PEOPLE ON TWITTER.
>> THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT TO ME
AS A JOURNALIST.
I BELIEVE IN THE IMPORTANCE OF
FREE PRESS AND INTERACTING WITH
THE PRESIDENT.
I THINK IT'S IMPORTANT TO BE
ABLE TO DO THAT.
THE PRESIDENT HAD A CHANCE TO
TALK ABOUT THAT AS WELL IN HIS
FINAL NEWS CONFERENCE.
PRESIDENT OBAMA SAID ONE OF THE
THINGS THAT IS ESSENTIAL TO THE
DEMOCRACY IS A FREE PRESS.
LISTEN.
>> THAT IS PART OF HOW THIS
PLACE, THIS COUNTRY, THIS GRAND
EXPERIMENT SELF-GOVERNMENT HAS
TO WORK.
IT DOESN'T WORK IF WE DON'T HAVE
A WELL-INFORMED CITIZENRY.
AND YOU ARE THE CONDUIT THROUGH
WHICH THEY RECEIVE THE
INFORMATION ABOUT WHAT'S TAKING
PLACE IN THE HALLS OF POWER.
SO AMERICA NEEDS YOU AND OUR
DEMOCRACY NEEDS YOU.
WE NEED YOU TO ESTABLISH A
BASELINE OF FACTS AND EVIDENCE
THAT WE CAN USE AS A STARTING
POINT FOR THE KIND OF REASONS
AND INFORMED DEBATES THAT
ULTIMATELY LEAD TO PROGRESS.
>> SOME PEOPLE THINK THAT MAY
HAVE BEEN A WAY FOR HIM TO
SIGNAL TO PRESIDENT TRUMP THAT
IT'S NOT SUCH A BAD THING IF THE
MEDIA IS PUSHING BACK AGAINST
YOU.
YOU THINK THAT WAS PART OF THE
INTENTION AND YOU THINK IT MIGHT
WORK OR NOT?
>> DOUBT IT'S GOING TO WORK.
DONALD TRUMP IS AMERICA'S FIRST
POPULOUS PRESIDENT OF THE MODERN
ERA OF COMMUNICATION.
WE DO HAVE EXPERIENCE WITH
POPULOUS ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD
AND WE SEE THEY HAVE MUCH MORE
CONFLICT WITH THE MEDIA AND TEND
TO USE CARROTS AND STICKS WITH
THE MEDIA TO A MUCH GREATER
EXTENT THAN PRESIDENTS WHO ARE
NONPOPULOUS, LIKE PRESIDENT
OBAMA OR PRESIDENT BUSH.
AND SO WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE
PRESIDENT TRUMP ESSENTIALLY
EVICT CERTAIN MEDIA OUTLETS OR
NOT RESPOND TO THEM OR NOT ALLOW
THEM ACCESS AS WAYS OF REPRISALS
IF HE DOESN'T LIKE THE WAY
THEY'RE REPORTING.
AND THAT'S -- IT DOES GET
DANGEROUS IN TERMS FOR THE MEDIA
BECAUSE THEY HAVE TO SORT OF
BALANCE BETWEEN ACCESS AND THEN
REPORTING THE TRUTH.
>> AS I WATCH ALL OF THIS
TRANSITION, I KNOW THAT THE
ELECTORAL COLLEGE, IT WAS CLEAR
WHO THE WINNER WAS.
BUT I ALSO KNOW THE POPULAR VOTE
WAS IN FAVOR OF MRS. CLINTON.
SO I'M WONDERING, WHY DO YOU
THINK IT IS -- MAYBE THE WINNERS
SAY TO THE VICTOR GO THE SPOILS
AND EVERYBODY ELSE THEY JUST
HAVE TO PLAY ALONG AND THAT'S
THE WAY IT'S GONNA GO.
HE KIND OF SAID THIS IS THE WAY
IT'S GONNA BE.
THIS IS THE HIGHWAY.
IT'S GOING TO BE OUR PHILOSOPHY
AND THE CABINET PICKS THAT HE
HAS HAVE NO HISPANICS IN IT,
WHICH IS -- IF WE TALK ABOUT
POPULOUS.
BUT THAT'S NOT PUTTING IN A
PRETTY BIG PART OF T
POPULATION.
>> HE'S USING HIS INSTITUTIONAL
LEVERAGE AS ALL PRESIDENTS DO,
BUT USING IT IN A WAY THAT
DOESN'T REFLECT THAT SORT OF
AMERICAN IDEAL WHICH IS TO BE
INCLUSIVE.
ALL PRESIDENTS HAVE TRIED THIS.
THIS IS A VERY NEW PHENOMENON
AND I THINK IT'S GOING TO BE
PROBLEMATIC FOR HIM.
PART OF THE PROBLEM IS THAT
THERE IS A KIND OF
REPRESENTATIVE FUNCTION IN THE
PRESIDENCY.
IT'S SUPPOSED TO BE
REPRESENTATIVE OF ALL PEOPLE.
AT LEAST AS IT'S CURRENTLY.
THERE IS ALSO A POLITICAL
PROBLEM.
IF HE'S NOT ABLE TO REACH OUT TO
THESE GROUPS AND CONTINUES TO
ALIENATE THESE GROUPS THAT WERE
MOVING AGAINST HIM IN THE
ELECTION, I THINK IT'S
PROBLEMATIC FOR HIM GOING
FORWARD.
SO THIS ISING IT THAT HE COULD