We follow kind of same lose time frame, it'll be in the summertime.
So gold and silver May kind of now that they're back in their range
may just kind of bounced around between 20 to, you know, 20 to 25 or
something for silver and gold between 1780 none of that kind of thing,
man.
When they start cutting and they will.
And that's when everybody, you know, the curtains pulled back and I
realize how full of crap these guys are and then up we go again.
I actually I've been thinking of late as to whether some of those
actors have left the stage.
You know it used to be when I first got involved in this in 2008-9 and
in through 2012 and into 15 and 16, you know, you just be sailing
along and in the middle of the day, the bottom would just drop out or
at the most odd times whether a son.
They evening or like a, you know, a Tuesday at 10:00 Eastern,
something like that.
All of a sudden there's just be the rush of volume, you know, compared
to any other times of day and then boom, you know, price just Falls
like 20 dollars in gold, you know, and sixty cents.
And so that doesn't happen anymore released infrequently or at least
less frequently than it did.
And so I wonder if a couple of things have actually had maybe a
greater impact or maybe they'll impact that we'd hope one being the
Basel 3.
Changes trying to force these Banks out of that paper game into more
physical.
But then also, those convictions at JP Morgan and the, you know,
almost billion dollar fines that they had to pay.
I mean, when you take the former head of precious metals trading for
JPMorgan and you can victim and I don't know if he's been sentenced
yet, but Michael Nowak is still awaiting.
I mean, he may be end up doing some time in the hole for, for
overseeing.
In that operation, put those things in there.
I we might be seeing finally Bank stepping away from that.
I mean, I just saw a news articles record this as morning about HSBC
had decided to get out of the industrial metal business altogether, a
couple years ago.
Now, they just petitioned and quit the lme this month here in
December.
So the manipulation part of it and again, much of that, I always felt
was just done by Bank trading desk for profit because they could that
may be easing.
In this turnaround this fall silver has led the metals in the miners
down as the dollar rally but silver also bottomed.
First, silver bottom back on the first of September, where gold really
had this kind of floor that it put in in October and November instead.
And so silver, where it led everything down, has been leading things
back up, gold in the minors and that may very well continue the part
of this bottoming process in
whereas, we were able to monitor the hedge funds that trade silver
futures,
Get extremely short four times in the last 90 days in doing so, they
left.
What are called the swap dealers on that category and the commitment
of Traders report.
And what our swaps, those are Futures and options.
Those are derivatives and who deals those the banks.
Okay, so the banks were getting long while they, while these hedge
funds are getting short, well, that's just an inverse, what we've
always seen in the past where the banks are
Short, and the speculators are long and then the price drops out and
they, you know, and they get ruined in the bank's profit.
Well, hey, lo and behold four times in the last 90 days those
speculators been ruined by spikes to the upside short squeezes.
So, there are some, you know, these kind of fundamental, kind of
ancillary changes that are kind of taken place in the structure of how
this works.
Now, whether that'll continue will see, you know, it price rallies.
I expect next year and
In 224 how actively will the bank's Supply?
The short positions that the speculators take long.
We'll just have to see if they don't.
That could exacerbate the moves the upside but I but I do sense.
Less intervention.
On a grand scale than what we, you know, saw all the way.
I don't know up until a few years ago.
So it'll be interesting to see if that continues if anything.
It's a good exercise for me to kind of take stock of what has
happened.
And and then to look ahead, it's it's very, it's very unfun.
I can tell you that because on years where you do but I do it done a
good job.
Like 19 or 20 all you get is well anybody because seen that
When you're nothing special and then in years, like this year where it
didn't work out, I mean, I thought we'd be rallying into year-end and
is in.
We are but I didn't I thought the Lowe's would come like in May or
June.
And then we'd rally back toward 2000 by the end of the year or even
past.
And like I said, that's all been delayed.
And now all I get is, you know, trolls tell me what an idiot I am so
it's not a very rewarding thing to do but I do it anyway and so I as
we get into December, I start to kind of collect ideas and screenshot
things, you know, as reminders.
I don't forget about some of the fundamental stuff I've noticed and
the idea has kind of is beginning to crystallize in my brain that this
upcoming year will be a lot like 2010 and 2019.
Now again if the war in Ukraine goes crazy and all of a sudden that
big for example that big nuclear power plant wherever that is and
Ukraine suddenly as a meltdown and all yeah oh God knows what could
happen, right?
War in Korea.
I mean all these?
I mean who.
So you try to look at this from a macro perspective and say okay on a
predictable Level Playing Field.
Here's what I think's going to happen.
In 2010.
We are coming off of the first QE program.
That changed everything.
The trend line in the SP goes back to March 2009.
Okay, that was a paradigm shifting event, but it's 2010 began.
You were being told.
I was being, everybody was being told that, that was a one-off Jesse.
You're never going to do QE again.
It was just done to, you know, help the banquet of the financial
crisis and through the first half of 2010, all the way into the fall
gold and silver really didn't do much
But with QE2, which suddenly appeared in November of 2010, you know,
Bank silver goes from 18 to 48 in about six months silver, you know,
gold sores, and all that stuff because they're we figured out the Fed
was full of crap so fast.
Forward, we go through all these next intervening years where
everybody's talking oh yeah, the feds going to pull down the balance
sheet.
All this kind of stuff we get to 2018 after six or seven years of
wandering in the desert.
And even though interest rates would spike, two, three and a quarter
on the 10-year in the SP had crashed by 20%.
As we entered 19, there were still all these eight-figure Wall Street,
economists, like, Ian hot Sia's at Goldman Sachs saying that, the
10-year note was going to go to 5% in 2019, and the Fed was going to
keep hiking weather instead.
The FED had paused and begun to Pivot.
in December of 18, it took about six months before they actually
started cutting
the first half of 19 was pretty quiet for the precious metals, kind of
chopping sideways.
And then when they started cutting in June, from June to September,
gold went from like 1282 1580 about 25 percent.
Silver took off, all that kind of stuff.
Now we know what happened in in 2020 and it was all the printer was
going again.
Alright, so now here we sit the end of 2022 and they're still all
these forecasts all these.
You know, Ian hot.
See says out there again, talk
What about five and six percent on the 10-year note, you know, and and
Powell's trying to tell you though, I don't see any rate Cuts coming
at all in 2023, just like a year ago, he didn't even see any rate
hikes until 2023.
The recession that's coming is going to be sharp.
The FED is going to have to Pivot and start cutting next year.
We follow kind of the same loose time frame.
It'll be in the summertime.
So gold and silver May kind of now that they're back in their range.
May just kind of bounced around between 22, you know, 20 to 25 or
something for silver and gold between 1700 and 1800 that kind of
thing.
But man, when they start cutting and they will,
Man, that's when everybody, you know, the curtains pulled back and I
realize how full of crap these guys are and then up we go again.
Then the only question, I'm 100% convinced of that.
The only question is will they overall Market?
The institutional investors the hedge funds in the like by with the
FED selling Again by 2024 when they start talking about hiking again
because if they don't then we get into this late 70s, kind of period,
you know, where things just keep going up and that's certainly a
possibility.
I wrote, I titled my 2019 forecast I called it 2010 plus 9 in that 19
was going to be like 2010.
I working title for next year's forecast might be
10 plus 9, plus for something like that.
In that 23 is going to look a lot like those years.