"The Wall Street journal" is now reporting that Wagner chief yevgeny prigozhin had originally
intended to capture two of Putin's top military leaders as part of his March on Moscow and
when intelligence agents discovered the plot prigozhin was forced to move up his time line.
Joining us with more on the real impact of all of this, former CIA director and centcom
commander general David Petraeus.
Thank you for being here.
If these details check out that prigozhin planned to kidnap two military leaders as
part of his rebellion and also what "The new York Times" is reporting that a top Russian
commander knew of prigozhin's plan ahead of time, what then do you make of Putin allowing
yevgeny prigozhin to escape to exile in Belarus?
[11:32:25 AM]
escape to exile in Belarus?
Does it add up?
>> Well, keep in mind that the Wagner group is still a very useful tool in the foreign
policy arsenal of the Russian Federation.
In fact, the foreign minister came out yesterday and said it would still be active in Mali
and the central African republic and elsewhere in the African republic and Syria and so forth.
It has been very helpful to the Russian cause in those areas and they don't have a replacement
for that yet.
It is also largely self-financing abroad.
We know now that some of the financing for the actions in Russia and Ukraine were coming
from the Russian Federation, but the whole affair is just nothing short of fantastic.
It reveals how desperate prigozhin had to feel.
His contracts were cut off and that his soldiers would have to sign contracts with the ministry
of defense and he was going to lose his army and his Russian source of revenue and he was
so
[11:33:26 AM]
source of revenue and he was so desperate that he would launch this fantastical expedition
to kidnap the minister of defense and the chief of the general staff whom he'd been
criticizing, of course, publicly for many months and then right before that, of course,
he also criticized the overall decision to invade Ukraine and then the way in which the
war was being conducted.
So really an extraordinary moment and then Putin, of course, disappears and he was awol
in the day of this operation.
He took the ride, unlike president zelenskyy at the start of the war, this last invasion
and he has to now reassert himself.
He's got to show that he's still firmly in charge.
He does allow prigozhin again to go to president lukashenko in Belarus where again you'll sort
out, but he has an investigation launch against prigozhin perhaps as leverage if he needs
it at some point in time and there is an extradition treaty with Belarus.
[11:34:27 AM]
Belarus.
So again, we'll see how Putin is able to re-establish himself now, but in the meantime, this weakens
the Russian forces on the battlefield at a time when it appears that Ukraine is starting
to ground out some gains and still in the early days and we still don't know where the
main effort is going to be.
I want to ask you on those fronts, the thing that we haven't seen prigozhin in Belarus,
does that mean anything to you?
>> No, I think he's probably trying to figure out what is his posture going to be going
forward?
Is he going to start criticizing the minister of defense and the chief of the general staff.
I suspect not for a while, at least.
I think he realizes how close he came to again ending up, you know, poked by an umbrella
or falling out of a window and he still needs to be careful about both of those, so -- and
I'm sure that lukashenko has him a bit under wraps as well and part of the deal was you
keep this guy quiet and keep him under control and we'll sort out what
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control and we'll sort out what the future is, keeping in mind again that the Wagner
group abroad is a useful tool for Russian foreign policy.
>> I was just handed this because we have new reporting coming in kind of getting to
what was going on behind the scenes, general, I want to ask you about.
A European intelligence says there were hints that Russian security services might have
had notice of the rebellion this weekend and key to this, of what we were talking about
off the top, might have wanted it to succeed.
I'm kind of curious, when you hear that what Putin should do now?
Does another military shake-up amongst the ranks under Putin seem like that could be
in the offing right now?
>> Well, I don't think he wants to do this immediately because it will do what prigozhin
had recommended be done which was to fire the minister and fire the chief of the general
staff.
So I don't think he wants to do this in the short term because it would seem to respond
to what prigozhin was -- was counseling,
[11:36:30 AM]
prigozhin was -- was counseling, but look, no.
He's a student history.
He knows that history is unkind to Russian leaders who lose wars.
He's got to try to figure out how to stabilize the front lines in the face of this mounting
summer offensive by the Ukrainian forces that have additional training and all kinds of
other combat support and service support elements.
So that's really got to be his focus.
How does he avoid losing this war noting that the leaders who lost the ruso-japanese war
in World War I did not stick around after that.
There may be people around the security services and intelligence services who are starting
to think, you know, maybe we should consider what might come after Putin.
>> Something, a thought that -- he's been, what?
His grip on power has been 23 years.
A thought that probably has not crossed the minds of many amongst his ranks for a very
long time if at all.
You were in Ukraine last month
[11:37:30 AM]
You were in Ukraine last month and there's been a lot said about the counteroffensive
under way in Ukraine so far.
Do you have con fidence in the Ukrainian counteroffensive?
>> I am cautiously optimistic that the Ukrainian forces are going to do what no force on either
side has done so far which is to put it all together.
Tanks, infantry, artillery, engineers, air defense, drones, good command and control
and follow-on forces right up behind the lead elements so that when they culminate after
72 or 96 hours as is typically the case in tough fighting, you can maintain the momentum
and they can crack the Russian lines.
We just don't know where that will be and I'm not sure the Ukrainians do because in
probing attacks and reconnaissance in force across the 600-mile front.
Think of the distances here and how tough it is to put forces in
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how tough it is to put forces in position, set the conditions as they say for the main
effort to be launched, and so it's hard to say when that will come.
We know it's very tough.
Again, multiple belts of minefields, obstacles, trenches, defense in depth and so forth, and
the Russians are doing this phase fairly competently, but I do think at some point in time the Ukrainians
will break through and hopefully the morale of the Russians has been damaged a bit by
this whole episode, as well because prigozhin has said what a lot of people are thinking
that this is not going well.
It was probably a mistake and you know, who wants to be the one that's the last to die
for this war that is not going well?
The Ukrainians know what they're fighting for.
This is their war of Independence and the Russians are much less certain about that.
>> General David Petraeus, it is