Hello and welcome to the latest update of the Sugarcane Rainfall Outlook for the
Burdekin District. This presentation will cover the recent rainfall totals recorded so far in May,
then the forecast rainfall over the short term. We'll then look at the June and July rainfall
outlooks in detail, before a summary of the longer term winter rainfall outlooks and climate drivers.
During May we've seen rainfall totals well below average, having received generally 10 percent or
less of the average May rainfall, with the exception of Lansdale CSIRO site,
which is T around 45 percent. Most locations have not recorded any rainfall in May so far.
In the short term, little in the way of rainfall is expected across the district,
with light southeasterly stream showers parallel to the coastline largely remaining offshore.
This graphic shows the 10-day rainfall accumulations to 10 pm next Friday the 2nd of June
and we can see across the next 10 days rainfall totals are expected to be negligible for most of
the Burdekin, with totals of one millimeter or less right on the coastline. A colder air mass
will reach the Burdekin District during Saturday with minimum temperatures in particular plummeting
to 6 to 10 degrees below average for the May on Sunday and Monday, before slowly climbing again
mid to late next week. Here we have the chance of exceeding 25 millimetres of rainfall over the next
fortnight from the 28th of May broken down into week-long periods. You can access these maps on
the link above. I have selected 25 millimeters to display and on the website there are a number
of rainfall thresholds available between one millimeter and 700 millimeters to choose from.
For the Burdekin District we are looking at a mostly dry fortnight ahead with a 10 percent or
less chance of exceeding 25 millimeters across both week one and week two. Into the whole of June
outlook and we can see a below average chance around 20 to 40 percent of exceeding the June
median rainfall, with the model skill typically getting it correct 55 to 65 percent of the time.
For further information including point location forecasts check the Bureau Climate Outlooks page
on the link above. This translates into a lower chance of seeing rainfall close to
the historical median for the month, as we can see from the lower rainfall values in the 50%
chance of at least chart on the left, compared with the historical median values on the right.
Elaborating further on the possible June rainfall totals here, with the high chance on the left
75 percent chance of exceeding or three out of four times we can expect to see at least
this much through the month of June, and the lower chance totals on the right- the 25 percent chance
of exceeding or one out of four times we would see these totals succeeded in the region during June.
Moving on to the month of July and a more neutral to slightly wetter signature is evident on the
rainfall outlook with average odds of around 40 to 65 percent of exceeding the July median rainfall.
The model skill across the Burdekin during July is typically correct 55 to 65 percent of
the time. This translates into about a roughly equal chance of seeing rainfall close to or
slightly higher than the historical median for the month, as we can see from the higher values in the
50% chance of at least chart on the left compared with the historical median map on the right.
Elaborating further on the possible July rainfall totals here, with the high chance on the left the
75 percent chance of exceeding, and we can expect to see at least this much through
the month of July, and on the lower chance totals on the right the 25 percent chance
or one out of four times we would see those totals exceeded in the region during July.
A quick snapshot of the rainfall outlook for Winter months through June to August as a whole,
and we see a low to about equal 35 to 50 percent chance of exceeding the median rainfall across
winter. The modeling is typically correct 65 to 75 percent of the time through this forecast period.
So what's driving this? We are currently in an El Niño watch with a 50 percent chance of El
Niño forming later this year around double the like normal likelihood.
In recent months we've observed eastern tropical Pacific waters are warming but
we've seen little atmospheric response yet. All International climate models indicate it is
very likely Pacific Ocean temperatures will reach El Niño thresholds during the winter,
however an atmospheric response is also required for the Bureau to declare an El Niño. El Niño is
normally associated with lower than average winter and spring rainfall over eastern Australia. This
translates into about an equal or slightly lower chance of seeing rainfall close to the historical
median for the winter, as we can see from the slightly lower values on the 50 percent chance
of at least chart on the left, compared with the historical median map on the right.That's
it for this update, as always check the latest forecast and warnings on the Bureau's website
or the BOM Weather App and be sure to send any feedback through to agriculture@bom.gov.au. We'd love to hear from you, See you next outlook, thanks for listening