On this episode of China Uncensored,
how would President Donald Trump handle the South China Sea dispute?
Hi, welcome to China Uncensored.
I’m your host Chris Chappell.
The South China Sea.
It’s one of the biggest shipping lanes in the world,
with trade worth 5 trillion dollars a year.
Seven countries have overlapping claims there.
And recently, China has been building
military facilities on disputed reefs in the region,
creating what could become
the world’s most terrifying game
of Super Smash Brothers.
Fortunately for President Obama,
six months from now
he won’t have to deal with it anymore.
Because by then,
one of these two candidates
will have the launch codes for thousands of nuclear warheads.
Let’s hope it doesn’t come to that.
The launching nukes part.
The presidency is pretty much inevitable.
On my previous episode,
I spoke with senior America correspondent Matt Gnaizda
about how President Hillary Clinton would handle the South China Sea.
Today, he joins me to talk about President Donald Trump.
Matt?
Hey Chris.
You’re wearing the same clothes from two days ago.
I... never left the studio.
What’s wrong?
I can’t sleep, Chris.
I can’t stop thinking about what would happen in the South China Sea
under President Trump.
You think it would be that bad?
I’m not saying bad.
I just have no idea.
I can’t stop thinking about it.
Well last time, you said that Hillary Clinton is status quo.
She’d do anything to prevent war with China,
and would continue to build relationships
with the Chinese government and China’s neighbors.
Do you think Trump would be any different?
Well Trump won’t admit to being like Clinton in any respect.
But how would President Trump actually handle the South China Sea?
Well, Chris, the first thing to understand is that Trump is an L.I.C.
An L.I.C?
A “Low Information Candidate.”
Trump has no foreign policy experience.
He has international business experience, sure.
But America is not like Trump Entertainment Resorts,
where if things go badly you can file for bankruptcy,
lay off a thousand people, and restructure.
In diplomacy, if you fail,
people can die.
Trump has never been read-in to the true US-China relationship,
so there’s a lot of nuances to the he doesn’t know yet.
On the other hand,
maybe a president who thinks outside the box
is what we need in the South China Sea?
Yeah, like President Underwood.
Remember, with one phone call,
Underwood solved a crisis with China that the previous guy wasn’t able to.
By sending a Chinese businessman back to China!
“What’s more important, Cathy: integrity or peace?”
“You know they’ll execute him!”
“Well, the Chinese are right about one thing:
Sometimes you have to sacrifice the one for the many.”
You just said thinking outside the box might be what we need.
That’s not what I....
Anyway, it’s hard to predict what Trump would do.
On the one hand,
Trump says he wants to reduce US troop presence in Japan and South Korea,
which are part of the US’s larger strategy
that includes the South China Sea issue.
Is pulling troops out a good idea?
One country thinks so.
And I do think Trump could save billions of dollars by pulling troops out,
or by pressuring Japan and South Korea to pay a bigger share.
But there could be unintended consequences to that.
We need military forces near China
if we want to deter China
or intervene in a conflict within the first 24 hours.
So would Trump pull troops out of the South China Sea?
Well that’s what we don’t know.
It sounds good as campaign rhetoric.
But if he becomes president,
he’s going to have to deal with a lot more nuance than a candidate does.
I think Trump is more pragmatic than ideological.
He might change his mind.
Also, how Trump handles the South China Sea
depends a lot on who his advisers are,
and whether he’ll listen to them.
So best and worst case scenarios for the South China Sea?
Best case: Trump uses his business negotiating skills
to get China to back its military off,
agree to fair and reasonable terms for sharing navigation and resources,
there’s lasting peace in the region,
and we all live happily ever after.
That's...really?
Ok, extremely best case scenario here.
Like Newt Gingrich moon colony best case scenario.
I'm almost afraid to ask this,
but worst case?
Trump uses his business negotiating skills,
but misses some important points of diplomacy,
and fails.
He’s alienated the countries that Obama and Clinton worked hard to befriend,
so no support there.
Then there’s some accident or misunderstanding,
and China opens fire on a ship from Vietnam or the Philippines or the US.
Archduke Ferdinand gets killed,
and World War III begins.
Not Archduke Ferdinand!
That’s a pretty big range of possibilities.
Lasting peace or ultimate war.
Well, it could also fall somewhere in between.
All I’m saying is that with Trump,
you have an unknown.
With Clinton, you’re investing in stable-but-low-return government bonds.
With Trump, you’re gambling in Atlantic City.
At least when it comes to the South China Sea.
Take your pick.
Thanks, Matt.
So what would you pick?
Leave your comments below.
Once again, I’m Chris Chappell.
See you next time.