more than two months have passed since the North Korea US summit in Hanoi ended
without a deal and not much progress has been made in denuclearizing the Hermit
Kingdom while South Korea's role as a mediator has become more important than
ever before top US negotiator North Korea Stephen vegan is due to visit
Seoul next Tuesday today we go in-depth on the analysis of the current situation
surrounding Korea and future perspectives on nuclear negotiations for
that doctor a communion of asan Institute for Policy Studies now joins
us thank you for coming in today thanks for having me
while dialogue remains halted between North Korea and the u.s. following the
no deal Hanoi summit South Korean foreign ministers remarks are making
headlines today she said that North Korea needs a comprehensive roadmap of
denuclearization to strike a deal with the u.s. while also calling on both
Pyongyang and Washington to be more flexible how do you interpret her
remarks well there are some interpretations that mr. country marks
is actually saying that North Korea should actually get closer to the u.s.
position about Toinette so-called the big one big comprehensive nuclear deal
with North Korea and but which means that the North Korea should actually
disclose all the second nuclear materials in one time and then have the
sanctions removed later but I think I beg to differ in this regard I think mr.
Kang what what she said about broaden the scope in this case she was trying to
convey this message to North Korea that North Korea should also invest in
relations with South Korea right now North Korea and South Korea I have I
mean when the South Korean president moon tried to increase the role of South
Korea's intermediary between Peter and Washington but North Korea has been I
mean critical about that so I think her previous token is saying that
essentially the Pyongyang should pay attention to the inter correlations at
the same time as Pagani's try to somehow restart the negotiation Washington so it
was an indirect call on North Korea to invest more
or on its relations with South Korea is well that's how old I think now can we
can we think of Minister Cong statements as the South Korean government's
official stance he reflects probably the South Korean government's thinking about
this issue especially the feeling about the fact that the inter-korean dialogue
is actually stutters well so I think probably to reflection of that top US
negotiator for North Korea Stephen beacon will visit Seoul next week to
hold working-level talks with his Korean counterparts what are some of the
expected agenda well the the origin of the working-level talks I was about how
to coordinate the position over both countries the United States and South
Korea regarding the way to approach North Korea in terms of engagement and
such as how to provide humanitarian and economic assistance so I think the
agenda for this working-level meeting will also reflect some of those agenda
items and I think in this case I mean in addition to talking about the star the
status of the ongoing impasse of negotiation between Western Pyongyang
I think the begun is going to talk about about how to say like a provide some
economic or humanitarian assistance to North Korea as you've mentioned and as
many reports suggest the humanitarian aid to North Korea will likely be
brought up but South Korea's plan to provide an aid when some eight million
dollars was suspended in 2017 and South Korea's Unification Ministry on Thursday
also said that they are not considering any food aid to North Korea at the
moment then why is this issue of humanitarian aid being a surface now
well this is a this a like a reflection of the some of the concerns presented by
the international community especially the United Nations the agencies that
work I mean operate in inside North Korea such as the World Food Program and
the food and the food and agriculture organization fao and they've been
publishing report since March actually indicating that North Korea's
this year's North Korea's harvest level would be pretty low compared to the
years past I mean we know that a record production in North Korea's very meager
in the last decade or so but then even compared to the standard they still this
year's production will be even lower I mean some expect that the shofar will be
in the magnitude of a 1.5 million tons of grain so I think I mean even though
North Korea hasn't really indicated that they are in need of a massive
humanitarian aid I think the leadership community including the United States
are preparing for you know possible contingency food contingency in North
Korea if humanitarian aid goes through this time how would North Korea react
with this help in any way for the resumption of the nuclear negotiations
well there's a reason why North Koreans didn't take the million dollars to South
Korea put on the table in back in 2017 and North Korea also we know from the
interaction between South Korea and North Korea that North Koreans wanted
from South Korea not aid but investments so clearly in terms of policy priority
in North Korea humanitarian assistance is not our
little priority for them I mean regardless of what's going on on the
ground in terms of agricultural production so I don't even North Koreans
are going to say this isn't something needed at the moment from their point of
view so we are again talking across each other I would say a nuclear standoff
between Pyongyang and Washington continues North Korea's Vice foreign
minister Chesson he has renewed the warning to the US the US has until the
end of the Sierra makeable decision while US Secretary of State Pompeo
continues to reiterate that complete denuclearization is the only way to
resolve the nuclear deadlock so how long before we see some progress
in this nuclear deadlock well we know that Kim jong-un is essentially very
clear that the he'll be waiting until the end of the year to see whether the
United States changes attitude throws Pyongyang so basically that's a lie that
mr. North Korea will aid until the end earlier there's no hurry on the western
side either I think those generalized feeling in Washington right now is that
that time is on the American side there was a very strong sanctions in place
against North Korea so North Koreans are probably running out of money and
resources so we no longer conside weights they're probably
expecting that North Koreans are going to provide better offers for the
organization so clearly there's no hurry on on the side of the United States and
also North Korea said that they wait until the end of the year so I expect
nothing will happen until the end of the year therefore so yeah that's how I
interpret this why is North Korea emphasizing its deadline of until the
end of this year why did it fix the time until the end of this year and and what
is the regime aiming for so the timing I think is quite interesting in my view I
mean we know that the North Koreans are clearly suffering from the effect of the
sanctions that means that North Koreans are probably getting closer to the
economic brain so to speak and that means they are going to run a hard
currency or like you know important key commodities such as oil and food so it
looks like the North Koreans can wait until the end of the year before they
you know have to take drastic measures to reverse this situation so that clear
one indication that the North Koreans can wait on there until the end of the
year another indication is that North Koreans are probably looking for right
political timing to you know send a message to Washington and in poor timing
in this case would be the electoral cycle in Washington we know that present
Trump is facing re-election in 2020 and here we start I mean he would have to
start working on the electoral campaign beginning early next year
so clearly North Koreans are gearing up for the occasion and they probably
understand that you know they can I mean North Koreans can challenge at present
Trump's claim that he's been very successful in North Korea especially for
North Korea launches the provocation at the end of this year or early next so
the timing was carefully calculated by North Korea Japan is also an important
regional player unlike previously Japan appears to be more actively reaching out
to North Korea with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe ed during an interview saying
that he's willing to meet with Kim jong-un without any conditions while
reports are also emerging that Japan's chief cabinet secretary Yoshihide Asuka
is pushing for a meeting with North Korean officials in New York do you
think that Kim jong-un Abbas summit can be materialized where clearly so it
makes some strategic sense to both sides especially for North Korea I mean those
Koreas right now isn't this all in kind of like a tour of the world reaching
automatically to different countries I mean when he started with the class I
mean the traditional North Korean allies such as China and Russia he just
recently met with the President Putin of Russia and then so it's natural for
North Korea to explore new option non-diplomatic a breakout that breaks
and then I think I think Japanese Prime Minister other has been interested in
opening a telecommunication in North Korea because there are two reasons for
that first reason is that Japan was a regional player it doesn't want to be
literally left out of this ongoing debate or discussion with North Korea
that's there's one and another one is that are we can by studying a
negotiation directly with North Korea dialogue on say you know can actually
promised me provoked so a little bit and influence our South Coast position
towards Japan we know that the South Korean Japan relation at the moment is
at the very bottom and I think our prime minister obey by reaching out to Kim
jong-un directly consumer showed showcase this and to Seoul that Japan
can be left out and ignored in their South Korean calculations
South Korea's concerns are growing on how to carry on its role at the mediator
while North Korea is yet to respond to president Mullins proposal on the fourth
round of inter-korean summit when do you think would be the best timing to hold
the next inter-korean summit well the timing is I mean any moment is a good
time to hold another summit inter-korean summit but then I think the timing is
really up to you know and on the hands of Pyongyang right now I think I mean we
know that South Korean president moon has been expecting reciprocal visit by
Kim jong-un by the end of last year and I didn't materialize and there's some
hope that the Kim General might come to not just not assault but they may have a
meeting in Panmunjom to mark the anniversary of the permanent
declaration last month but I didn't happen either so clearly there's no
hurry on the part of North Korea to have another inter-korean summit whereas we
want another inter-korean summit so we don't know when the situation will
change but I think that North Korea has described the conditions for another
summit by saying that in recent days that Sasquatch should step up and then
be more independent of the American recomposition tourists in force diverse
Asians and for more focus and the collective core of the inner Korean
nation so that means that no as long as South Korea is close to Washington
Medical denuclearization the prospect of another inter-korean sum is probably far
off but do you think that would be possible for South Korea to be a little
bit detached from us demands and be more responsive to North Korea's demands in
order for the inter-korean summit to occur well so I mean we saw Korea can be
strategic about it I mean it doesn't have to be don't have to change position
or allow in alignment of Washington wholesale overnight and now South Korea
can actually be more I mean can communicate to Washington that current
impasse diplomatic impasse between North Korea and the United States is not it's
actually you know it can only last and therefore South Korea is going to step
up and propose a new idea for the hello cans so that's been lacking on the part
of South Korea so far it is not I mean South Korea has claimed that wants to be
the intermediary between all agonal catalysts between Pyongyang and
Washington but hasn't didn't really pull on the table any concrete idea to do so
what kind of requests do you think will be made by Kim jong-un if another round
of inter-korean summit takes place well in the North Korea simply transparent
about what they want from Seoul I mean they want expansion of the inter-korean
economic exchanges so case in point will be in a restarting of the Kaesong
Industrial Complex if that's the difficult and the South Korea could
offer restarting the mountain and tourism so these are great to concrete
our request that top scores are put on the table and it was a really know North
Korean South Korean hour you know themselves have put a four star idea
from you know long ago so I think that's probably the litmus test for North
Koreans many experts believe Kim jong-un is not ready yet on how to proceed with
denuclearization talks and it's widely believed that he's still
falling his next step after his summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin do
you agree I think North Koreans are very clear about what they want to do right
now I think I mean Kim jong-il's made it very clear that the hill wait I mean
it's been very specific about the timeline he wants he's got to wait until
the end of the year before I mean for the United States to change his position
towards North Korea and he's speaking at about since the beginning of the series
will his mere speech so I mean I think North Koreans have been putting a lot of
thought into this so they have a game plan clearly and we
know condo game plan they have and they've been hinting at it to the so
called a new way that they've been searching with in if the ongoing
negotiation with the United collapses that they are clearly hinting at in
almost restarting the provocations again so I think are they have a game plan
already all right dr. goal thank you so much for your analysis and perspective
my say sure and that does it for this edition of news in depth from all of us
here at Arirang thank you for watching and have a great weekend