And what does that lead to when people panic?
When there is a crisis, they run towards safe-haven assets.
It's going to be an absolute disaster, time between rate hikes and
cuts and you know they're going to keep on slamming the interest rate
up until they cause a crisis and then they'll bring it down to zero
the gold during the biggest stock market crashes.
And so, here, you've got all of the biggest stock market crashes.
Going back to 73 74 and Gold's performance during all of those.
And there's only one where gold actually,
Fell more than the stock market, and that's because gold had just hit
its peak in 1980.
So it was coming down off of its peak.
These two yellow ones are where gold fell, but it fell far less than
the S&P 500.
The reason that this is important is last year, gold, sort of broke,
even it started with the started and finished the year, right in, you
know, within a few bucks.
and so,
the stock market fell 18 percent over that time.
So let's just try to eliminate the dollar from the equation here and
see what that actually means.
Because gold people say, oh well, gold didn't do anything last year.
Yeah, but real estate is down.
Stocks are down, bonds are down when the when the yield goes up, the
price goes down.
So if you were holding onto existing bonds, they're not as worth as
much in the aftermarket because they don't pay.
As much interest and so all the other major asset classes fell
cryptocurrencies.
They're all down.
So everything is down.
Gold broke even silver rose.
But I'm going to just focus on gold because that's what the central
bank's hold.
Its, it's more.
Can see.
Even though silver has been used as money, many many more times
throughout history than gold, gold is still considered the standard of
money.
When it comes to central banks and such when it comes to Nations
throughout history.
And so, if the stock market, let's let's use some hypothetical numbers
here.
Let's say you have a dollars worth of gold and a dollars worth of
stocks and then the stocks Fall by 50%, well, your dollars worth of
gold that didn't go anywhere.
It's still a dollars worth of gold can now.
Buy
Twice as many stocks.
So that fifty percent decline in the stocks added up to a 100 percent
gain in the value of gold compared to stocks.
Now, let's say
The stocks Fall by fit and a 50% retracement is very common in a big
big stock market correction, or pull back, a crash can be a whole lot
worse.
You know, seventy percent correction in value, during the invisible
Crash, from 1966 to 82 and I think it was, I can't exactly remember,
but it was right around 90 percent that the started, the value of the
stock.
Market lost from 29 to 1932.
So a 50 percent correction or pull back is quite normal, the NASDAQ
lost like us 70-something, 6038 percent retracement, 50% retracement,
62 percent retracement.
These are the most common Corrections that you see in the stock
market.
But let's take that 50 percent the stock market Falls by 50%.
If gold goes up by fifty percent, 50 plus 50 doesn't equal 100 if gold
goes up by 50% now you've got gold worth a buck fifty and the stocks
worth 50 cents.
So you can now buy three times as many stocks in this case.
50 plus 50 equal to 200 percent increase in the value of gold,
compared to stocks, not the price, forget the price, the price means
nothing.
What can you do?
With the proceeds, the price is just a number, you put on it as you
temporarily use currency as a medium of exchange.
And so I want to move on from this.
There's a chart in here with some technical analysis, adding it all up
and the predictions minimum High 2100 for next year.
I would agree that that's sort of a minimum potential with no crisis
2250.
I don't know potential with
Crisis 2700.
Well here I'm going I'm going to disagree with Jeff because it all
depends on the scale of the crisis.
If this is like an Armageddon style crisis, then you know this range
here of three to ten thousand that is achievable in a single year.
If it's a it all depends on how scared people are and that's it.
Likelihood gold is higher about 90%.
Likelihood.
That is going to be higher than it is now.
I think that that's probably accurate, but one of the things that this
is leaving out is what is the likelihood that the stock market is
going to be lower and that's probably like an eighty percent
likelihood.
So now you've got a likelihood of 90% for the gold upside 80% from the
of the stock, market's downside, and looking at that value change, you
know, it is
As important of just one of them going One Direction or another, but
when both of them are going opposite directions, these magnify your
potential losses and gains, depending on where you are, what you're
invested in.
At the time, the interest rates have gone up dramatically over the
past year.
And so we're on this spike is only since the interest rates have been
raised which was what last March or something.
When
They started raising them, so, it's less than a year ago that this
and, and it's still has, you know?
So less than one year out of the five years of rollover has been
completed.
So it's got maybe this is maybe one tenth of the amount of the
national debt has already caused this Spike.
What happens when the other nine-tenths hits the loan requirements
making loans, a little bit harder to get rather than
Increasing R in interest rates and causing the whole system to break,
but they are hell-bent determined on crashing the economy because that
is what this will lead to.
And what does that lead to when people panic.
When there is a crisis, they run towards safe-haven assets.
Well, because of the FTX Scandal, there's still a dark cloud over the
crypto space bonds.
Like I said, they will get this last Safe, Haven pop because interest
rates when they plunge the value of bonds on the aftermarket
increases.
So where is the other Safe Haven?
It's gold and silver and that is about it.
And, you know, people that are in my insiders, the Insiders people
that have bought a certain they've purchased a certain amount of gold
or silver from goldsilver.com, get my insiders updates and
Alerts.
And whenever I make a purchase, I show them why and I show them things
like this.
And here, you know, is the weekly transparent gold holding, so it's
all of the repositories, like the Commodities exchange, mutual funds
and ETFs all of the reporting repositories that are sitting on a pile
of gold somewhere.
And so we've got the gold price in gold in the background here.
And then the millions of ounces in the repositories
in the foreground in blue and what you see is some waves in Cycles,
you know, inflows outflows in flows out, flows and flows out, flows
and flows out flows, but over the long term, you also see that this
was about even back here and then there was a very positive bias for a
few years here and then we, with the exception of 2022, here, we've
Had a very negative bias without flows.
Most of the time taking the from Gold's peek back here in late 2020.
As far as the not the peak in price but the peak in number of ounces
being held.
There's been a significant outflows but look how this is shrinking.
And sort of looks like it's about done and even though we've had
outflows, the price of gold has been rising.
That is very very
Very interesting.
The next chart is the cash position.
So this is the amount of dollars that are flowing in and out.
So the weekly cash flow and you see the same pattern if inflows out
flows and flows out flows.
But here you see this sort of equilibrium back here, a net positive
and then a net negative with the exception of this blip again.
But that is shrinking.
And it hasn't really gone positive yet but gold has been rising.
So this is some very good news.
Then we take a look at Silver, same thing, sort of an equilibrium back
here until mid 2019 and then it's got a positive bias until early
2021.
And then a negative bias from 20 early 2021 until today, it's
Add a couple of little positive spikes there but in large for more
than a year it's been, you know, about a year and a quarter.
It's been significantly negative and it looks like that is over with.
But look, we've had mostly - Oz coming out of the repositories while
the price has gone from 18 to 24.
And then we take a look at the cash flow.
Same thing almost equal
Librium.
Back here, a net positive here and a net negative here.
And that appears to be over with and even though there's only a few
weeks here where there was more cash coming in than out, most of the
cash was coming out, but the price Rose.
So these are all very, very good signs.
I want to thank Jeron, Blackland for posting tweeting.
This central banks have been buying gold in an unprecedented pace, is
the Frieze of Russia's Central Bank as
Assets to blame potentially big implications for Global Financial
markets.
And this is what this is, you know this is the net buys or sells going
back to 2008 and what is interesting is the net buyers are mostly in
the East and the net sellers are in the west.
So it is a transfer from east to west.
Best.
And I would just want to show you Gold's performance since 2002.
And it's been pretty darn spectacular.
We're down here at about 250 something.
And we're about, I believe that this year, if we see new highs, that's
when gold gets in the news.
That's when everybody starts buying.
Again, that's when your neighbor starts talking to you about investing
in gold,