EVERY DAY I'M UPDATING YOU ON THE POLLS, LET ME GIVE YOU A QUICK
UPDATE ON THE LATEST.
WE ARE GOING TO DO AN HOUR OF IT.
WE'VE GOT STORIES ABOUT THE ELECTION, BUT THIS IS
SPECIFICALLY ABOUT WHAT DO THE POLLS SAY FOUR DAYS OUT.
THERE
ARE A GIANT NUMBER OF BOWLS, AGGREGATE POLES, SWING STATE
POLLS, NATIONAL POLLS, THOSE AREN'T IMPORTANT.
THE SWING
STATE POLLS ARE.
YESTERDAY I SOUNDED THE ALARM ON NEW
HAMPSHIRE, IF IT GOES AND TAKES COLORADO WITH IT WE'VE LOST THE
ELECTION.
NOT NECESSARILY.
YES NECESSARILY.
FIRST OF ALL, I'LL TELL YOU THAT.
IF YOU LOSE
COLORADO AND NEW HAMPSHIRE, THERE IS AN 85% CHANCE YOU HAVE
LOST THE ELECTION.
BECAUSE THAT MEANS YOU'VE ALREADY LOST FLORIDA, NORTH
CAROLINA, NEVADA.
YOU WOULD HAVE TO SOMEHOW MIRACULOUSLY WIN FLORIDA AND
NORTH CAROLINA EVEN THOUGH YOU LOST COLORADO AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.
YOU WOULD HAVE TO ASSUME THERE WAS SOMETHING
DEMOGRAPHICALLY DISTINCT ABOUT THOSE STATES.
I'VE SEEN THE TRACKING.
I LARGELY AGREE WITH YOU, I WOULD JUST SAY NECESSARILY.
NEW HAMPSHIRE WAS AT A 6-8 POINT ADVANTAGE, IF SHE SLIPPED
THAT MUCH IN NEW HAMPSHIRE, WITH THE PEOPLE IN FLORIDA GET
COMPLETELY DIFFERENT NEWS?
IN THE OLD DAYS, GET YOUR NEWS AT
THE LOCAL CORNER, IN ORLANDO THEY GOT DIFFERENT NEWS THAN
THEY GOT IN NASHUA.
NOT TODAY, WE HAVE THE SAME NEWS, THEY ARE
ALL LIVING IN THE SAME DIRECTION, AGAINST HILLARY
CLINTON.
BUT TODAY, A TINY BIT OF GOOD NEWS, A LITTLE BUMP
TOWARDS CLINTON IN THE LATEST POLLS, ESPECIALLY IN FLORIDA.
THE PANIC IN NEW HAMPSHIRE IS NOW NATIONWIDE.
THERE IS TAPE OF THIS GUY, MICHAEL SHURE, ON THE SHOW.
YOU
MIGHT NOT HAVE BEEN HERE, BUT IT WAS THE DAY THE EMAIL STORY
BROKE.
NO, YOU WERE HERE.
I SAID THIS WILL MATTER MOST IN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
IT IS MATTERING, IT SEEMS, MOST IN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
REMIND ME WHY YOU SAID THAT.
BECAUSE OF THE CONSERVATIVE, LIVE FREE OR DIE THING IN NEW
HAMPSHIRE, AND BECAUSE OF THE AYOTTE/HASSAN RACE, ANYTHING
THAT WOULD CAST OUT ON HILLARY CLINTON WOULD HELP AYOTTE
AND DONALD TRUMP.
ALSO WE TALKED ABOUT THE PREDICTION BY NATE SILVER THAT
THIS COULD RAISE TRUMP'S CHANCES TO 35%, AND IN THEIR TRACKING
POLLS THINK IT'S EXACTLY 35%.
SEEMS A LITTLE SUSPICIOUS TO ME.
DAILY KOS POLITICS, CLINTON'S ABILITY OF WHEN HE WENT
DOWN FROM 92% TO 91%.
TOTAL HORSE CRAP.
I AGREE.
NO ONE CALLED OUT NATE SILVER MORE THAN I DID DURING THE
PRIMARIES, BUT I THINK HOW HE HAS IT RIGHT NOW IS RIGHT.
I
THINK IT'S 35%, THAT'S WHERE WE THOUGHT IT WOULD BE AFTER THE
FBI THING, WE WERE RIGHT, BUT PARTLY BASED ON NATE'S
ANALYSIS AT THE TIME.
BUT I THINK THAT'S EXACTLY WHERE WE ARE, I THINK HE HAS A 35%
CHANCE OF WINNING.
I THINK IT'S LOWER, AND THERE IS ONE STATE THAT LEADS ME
TO BELIEVE IT IS LOWER, I WILL REVEAL THAT IN OUR POSTGAME.
I THINK YOU SHOULD VOTE LIKE IT'S 50%.
I WOULD NEVER SAY IT
IS IN THE BACK EVEN IF I BELIEVED IT WAS.
VOTE, BUT DON'T
BE COMPLACENT.
YOU GUYS ARE STILL IN THE CLOUDS.
YOU BOTH STILL THINK
THERE IS HIM IS NO CHANCE THAT SHE'S GOING TO LOSE.
I DON'T KNOW HOW YOU GO FROM ME SAYING I THINK HE HAS A
LESS CHANCE THAN 35%, TO MY HEAD IS IN THE CLOUDS.
YOU DON'T REALLY BELIEVE THAT POSSIBILITY, THAT TRUMP
COULD BE PRESIDENT.
OF COURSE I DO, WHY DO YOU THINK MY TWITTER ACTIVITY HAS
LARGELY BEEN ATTACKING THE JACKASSES RAISING HIS ODDS IN
THE FIRST PLACE?
IT IS BECAUSE IT'S ALL I THINK ABOUT, I JUST
THINK IT IS SOMEWHERE AROUND 28%.
THIS ELECTION HINGES ON ABOUT SEVEN STATES OR SO, ROUGHLY.
NEW
HAMPSHIRE, COLORADO, VIRGINIA, PENNSYLVANIA, FLORIDA -- IT
MIGHT BE JUST FIVE.
BECAUSE NEVADA, THEORETICALLY --
IF SHE TAKES THAT SHE DOESN'T MAYBE EVEN NEED NEW HAMPSHIRE.
I WILL PUT NEVADA THERE.
I DON'T THINK SHE'S GOING TO WIN
IT, BUT IT'S WITHIN TWO POINTS SO OF COURSE SHE COULD WIN.
EARLY VOTING IN NEVADA, ESPECIALLY IN CLARK COUNTY, HAS
BEEN SO DISPROPORTIONATE TO ANY OTHER YEAR, CLARK COUNTY IS
WHERE LAS VEGAS IS, IT'S WHERE MOST OF THE VOTE IN THE
STATE IS.
EARLY VOTING IN THAT COUNTY?
I'VE HEARD THAT OVERALL IT LOOKS VERY MUCH LIKE 2012
FOR DEMOCRATS.
A LOT OF SERVICES OUT OF NEVADA ARE SAYING IT'S
UNPRECEDENTED -- OF COURSE THERE IS NO PRECEDENT TO EARLY VOTING,
BUT IT IS SO MUCH MORE THAN IT WAS IN THE PAST.
WHEN THE EAST COAST START REPORTING, THERE ARE THREE
DOMINOES TO LOOK AT.
STARTING IN THE NORTH, NEW HAMPSHIRE.
THE
NEW GO TO NORTH CAROLINA.
FOUR -- NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA.
WHICH WILL COME EARLIER THE NEW HAMPSHIRE.
AND THEN FLORIDA.
PENNSYLVANIA IS THREE POINTS RIGHT NOW.
YOU ARE RIGHT, THE FIVE STATES --
EVEN WITH MY HEAD IN THE CLOUDS I SAW THAT.
TO ME PENNSYLVANIA IS THE BELLWETHER, IF SHE WINS THAT MY
FIVE OR SIX POINTS, TO ME THAT INDICATES --
IF SHE LOSES PENNSYLVANIA IT'S PROBABLY ALREADY OVER.
IF SHE
LOSES PENNSYLVANIA, HOW THE FUCK IS SHE GOING TO WIN?
I AGREE WITH YOU, PROBABLY BETTER THAN NECESSARILY.
IF HE LOSES PENNSYLVANIA SHE WINS BY WINNING FLORIDA AND
NORTH CAROLINA AND COLORADO AND NEVADA.
SHE IS NOT GOING TO WIN NORTH CAROLINA IF SHE LOSES
PENNSYLVANIA.
ANYWAY, THAT IS WHERE WE STAND NOW, 35% CHANCE,
AND IF SHE LOSES PENNSYLVANIA, GET READY TO HAVE A HEART
ATTACK, AND IF SHE LOSES NEW HAMPSHIRE, THEN SIT ON THE EDGE
OF YOUR SEAT THE REST OF THE NIGHT BECAUSE IT WILL BE NIP AND
TUCK, AT THAT POINT I WOULD PUT TRUMP AS THE FAVORITE IF HE WINS
NEW HAMPSHIRE.
AAAH!
THAT IS WHERE WE ARE NOW.
I'VE NEVER HEARD YOU MAKE THAT SOUND.
THE ELECTION
IS COMING.