SHOW
SHOW AND
SHOW AND WHAT WE CHOOSE TO COVER .
COVER .
COVER . SO WE LOVE.
ALL RIGHT .
CASE IN POINT WE GOT THIS TWEET
FROM HER MAIONE HEY DAN, CAN
YOU TALK ABOUT THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER HORRIFIC FOREST
FIRE SEASON HERE IN OREGON?
PREDICTIONS ARE THAT WE'RE
GOING TO HAVE THE DRIEST SUMMER
ON RECORD.
ON RECORD. SO YOU'RE IN LUCK BECAUSE WE
ACTUALLY ARE PLANNING AN ENTIRE
WEEK OF WILDFIRE COVERAGE NEXT
WEEK.
WEEK.
WEEK. SO
WEEK. SO STAY TUNED FOR THAT.
BUT IN THE MEANTIME, A LITTLE
TASTE HERE.
TASTE HERE. LET'S TURN NOW TO CHIEF
METEOROLOGIST MATT ZAFFINO.
SO MATT, WHAT CAN YOU TELL US
ABOUT SORT OF THE OUTLOOK AT
THIS POINT?
THIS POINT? YEAH, SO MAGGIE, FIRST OF ALL
TO HERMOINE AILSE QUESTION THE
FORECAST FOR THE DRIEST SUMMER
ON RECORD I HAVE NOT SEEN THAT
FORECAST AND KEEP IN MIND WE
USUALLY ALWAYS HAVE REALLY DRY
SUMMERS HERE IN THE NORTHWEST.
WE GET VERY LITTLE RAIN.
WE HAVE A WET SEASON, DRY
SEASON.
SEASON.
SEASON. WE ARE ENTERING THE DRY SEASON
NOW.
NOW.
NOW. SO
NOW. SO EVEN IF WE HAVE A REALLY DRY
SUMMER IT DOESN'T REALLY MEAN
THAT WE'RE GETTING A LOT LESS
RAIN THAN WE NORMALLY GET
BECAUSE WE GET SO LITTLE RAIN
IN THE SUMMERTIME ANYWAY.
BUT SOME CONSIDERATIONS FOR THE
FIRES AND I GOT TO TELL YOU HER
MIND IS A QUESTION I'VE BEEN
GETTING THAT REALLY SINCE LAST
FALL SINCE THOSE FIRES DIED
DOWN.
DOWN.
DOWN. I
DOWN. I GOT THOSE QUESTIONS ALL
WINTER AND I'VE REALLY BEEN
GETTING A LOT OF THEM NOW THAT
WE'VE HAD SUCH A DRY SPRING.
SO HERMOINE YOU'RE NOT ALONE.
EVERYBODY HAS BEEN ASKING ME
ABOUT THAT.
ABOUT THAT. SO SOME CONSIDERATIONS.
YES, WE HAVE HAD OUR RECORD DRY
SPRING.
SPRING.
SPRING. IT IS THE DRIEST MARCH, APRIL,
MAY PERIOD ON RECORD IN
PORTLAND.
PORTLAND.
PORTLAND. WE'VE ONLY HAD A LITTLE OVER
TWO AND A HALF INCHES OF RAIN.
SO THAT FACTORS INTO IT BECAUSE
WE'RE SETTING THE TABLE WITH A
REALLY DRY LANSCAPE GOING INTO
THE DRY SEASON ALREADY AND THEN
OF COURSE WE HAVE THE HISTORIC
FIRES LAST FALL AND I THINK
THESE TWO THINGS HAVE A LOT
OF PEOPLE ON EDGE.
PEOPLE ARE NERVOUS ABOUT THIS,
ESPECIALLY WHEN YOU CONSIDER
THAT WITH THOSE HISTORIC FIRES
LAST FALL WE'RE IN THE MIDDLE
OF COVID NOBODY COULD GO OUT.
PEOPLE ARE FEELING A LITTLE
BIT, YOU KNOW, UNCERTAIN
ANYWAY.
ANYWAY.
ANYWAY. AND THEN YOU DIDN'T EVEN FEEL
SAFE IN YOUR OWN HOME BECAUSE
OF THE SMOKE.
SO AGAIN, THERE'S A LOT
OF SOCIETAL FACTORS THAT ARE
GOING INTO THIS.
BUT REMEMBER THIS THE WEATHER
PATTERN WE HAD LAST SEPTEMBER,
THOSE HISTORIC WINDS THAT IS
NOT LIKELY TO BE REPEATED.
LET ME REPEAT THAT WE ARE NOT
LIKELY TO GET THE WINDS THAT WE
GOT WHEN WE GOT THEM LAST
SEPTEMBER EARLY IN SEPTEMBER
BEING THE MAIN POINT.
>> AND IN CASE YOU FORGOT HOW
STRONG THOSE WINDS WERE, LET ME
SHOW YOU A GRAPHIC I DID BACK
IN THE FALL.
THIS IS UP AT SEVEN THOUSAND ON
MOUNT HOOD AT THE MAGIC WALL.
NOW TWO THINGS ABOUT THAT SEVEN
THOUSAND FEET IS AN ELEVATION
ABOVE WHICH MOST OF THE FIRES
WERE BURNING SO GRANTED THAT
IT'S A VERY EXPOSED LOCATION
BUT STILL LOOK AT THESE WINDS.
THIS IS FROM THE 7TH TO THE 8TH
OF SEPTEMBER WHEN THOSE WINDS
REALLY CRANKED UP.
THEY WERE ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE
FOR AT LEAST 10 HOURS STRAIGHT
AND THE GUSTS WERE BETWEEN
NINETY FIVE AND ONE HUNDRED
AND SIX MILES AN HOUR FOR 10
HOURS STRAIGHT.
HOURS STRAIGHT. SO EVEN IF YOU LET'S SAY TAKE
HALF OF THESE VALUES SO YOUR
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 40
AND YOUR GUESTS WERE 50 AND YOU
HAD THAT ON THE FIRE SO 10
HOURS STRAIGHT THAT'S EXTREME.
AND I'VE BEEN FORECASTING
WORKNG A LONG TIME OVER 30
YEARS I'VE NEVER SEEN WINDS
LIKE IS THAT EARLY IN THIS
SEASON THAT WAS A HISTORIC WIND
EVENT.
EVENT.
EVENT. SO
EVENT. SO THAT'S WHAT I MEAN.
WE'RE UNLIKELY TO SEE THAT TWO
YEARS IN A ROW NOW AS FAR AS
SUMMER GOES.
SUMMER GOES. YEAH, WE ARE EXPECTING A DRY
SUMMER BUT THE THE ODDS OF THAT
ARE NOT REALLY TO MUCH HIGHER
THAN NORMAL FOR US HERE IN THE
NORTHWEST OR HIGHER DOWN TO THE
SOUTHWEST.
SOUTHWEST. WHAT ABOUT RAINFALL WE'RE
EXPECTING TO DRY.
THAT WAS A WARM SUMMER.
THIS IS A DRY SUMMER.
YES.
YES.
YES. WE'RE EXPECTING A DRY SUMMER.
BUT AGAIN TO MY POINT WE
USUALLY ALWAYS HAVE DRY SUMMER
SO THERE'S NOTHING UNUSUAL
ABOUT THAT WHAT IT WILL REALLY
COME DOWN TO A COUPLE OF THINGS
LIGHTNING IS ONE BUT REALLY
HUMAN BEHAVIOR BECAUSE MOST
OF OUR WILDFIRES WERE STARTED
BY HUMANS.
BY HUMANS. NOW.
NOW.
NOW. SO
NOW. SO HUMAN BEHAVIOR LIGHTNING
AND THEN WHEN WE GET THOSE
RAINS, IF THEY COME EARLY OR IF
THEY COME IN KIND OF A NORMAL
PATTERN MAGGIE AND THEN WE GET
THE STRONG WINDS AFTER THAT
THAT REALLY LESSENS THE CHANCE
OF HAVING THE EXPLOSIVE KIND
OF FIRES THAT WE HAD LAST FALL.
SO I GUESS MY BOTTOM LINE POINT
WOULD BE YEAH, WE'RE GOING INTO
THE DRY SEASON FIRE SEASON IS
ALWAYS A CONCERN.
BUT JUST BECAUSE WE HAD BIG
FIRES AND A LOT OF SMOKE LAST
FALL DOES NOT MEAN WE'RE GOING
TO DO THAT TWO YEARS IN A ROW.
>> YEAH, I THINK TO YOUR POINT
THERE'S JUST A LOT OF QUITE
FRANKLY AND NOT TO USE THIS
PHRASE LIGHTLY BUT PTSD TOTALLY
FROM LAST YEAR ALL OF US FEEL
IT SO STRESSED OUT ABOUT IT
AND I THINK THAT'S WHY I KEEP
GETTING THAT QUESTION BECAUSE
EVERYBODY'S ON EDGE NOW, YOU
KNOW, IN IN TERMS OF OF DEALING
WITH A CHANGING CLIMATE WHICH
WE ARE WE ARE EXPECTING DRIER
SUMMERS AND THAT OF COURSE
EXACERBATE FIRE SEASON BUT
WE'RE ALSO EXPECTING WETTER
FALLS IN WINTER AS WE GO
THROUGH A CHANGE CHANGING
CLIMATE TOO.
CLIMATE TOO. SO THERE'S A LOT THAT WE JUST
HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW IT
PLAYS OUT.
PLAYS OUT. BUT AGAIN, JUST BECAUSE WE HAD
THAT TREMENDOUS FIRE SEASON
LAST FALL AND IF YOU THINK
ABOUT IT, IT WASN'T A BAD FIRE
SEASON UNTIL WE GOT THOSE
STRONG WINDS AND THAT MADE
THOSE FIRES JUST BLOW UP.
SO UP UNTIL THAT POINT IT
HADN'T BEEN THAT BAD OF A
SEASON THEN IT TURNED
DISASTROUS OF COURSE FOR FOR SO
MANY PEOPLE ACCROSS NOT ONLY
OREGON BUT THE ENTIRE