Michigan is famous for its great lakes, being home to Kellogg's and the Big Three automobile makers:
General Motors, Ford and Chrysler. It’s also the tenth most populated
state in the United States. It’s home to almost ten million people.
In terms of surface area, it is the eleventh largest, but,
trust me, in this case size doesn't matter: 40% of Michigan is under water.
Let's see if you thought that the Great Lakes were an exaggeration:
they do indeed have enough water to submerge the whole of the Czech Republic and part of Slovakia.
But today we're not going to talk about Michigan's natural
wonders. Today is about the upcoming election.
Tuesday, 3 November is fast approaching and the truth is that the presidential
election has suddenly become very interesting. A year ago,
Trump's re-election seemed inevitable. But 2020 and the coronavirus have changed everything.
So we're talking about a state with a lot of industry, a lot of factories,
and that means that there are a lot of voters who belong to the working class.
In principle, you might think that these voters would be more likely to vote for the Democrats,
right? Well, the truth is that they are not.
In 2016, Donald Trump got into the pockets of these voters with his anti-China speech.
He did the same thing with many of Bernie Sanders' supporters in the Democratic primary.
We are talking about those attracted to the left of the party. Those closest to the labor movement.
Workers who felt betrayed by those giving the orders in Washington. Workers who feel
that the Democratic Party cares more about defending minorities than the working class.
And Trump took advantage of that. More specifically, his
then-campaign manager: the one and only Steve Bannon.
(Steve Bannon: 'We've turned the Republicans into a working-class party'. The Guardian)
So Michigan voted for Trump against all odds. After supporting Democratic candidates in the
six previous elections, in 2016 they bet on the Republican. A change that was ultimately
decisive in getting Trump into the White House. Now Trump is up for re-election
and will be going to the polls at the worst possible time. The country faces
a complicated economic landscape as the fight against the coronavirus continues.
And yes, the pandemic is global and economic difficulties affect multiple countries right
now. But, at this time, the American voter is concerned about his or her own country.
So the question is: Why is Michigan so important?
Will it be Michigan that decides in November who occupies the White House for the next
four years? Today on VisualPolitik we are going to answer these questions. But first,
let's take a look at some history.
(THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE)
If you think that the United States is a first-past-the-post democracy and it all comes
down to who gets the most votes... well, you're very much mistaken. Four years ago we saw why.
There are now five times in U.S. history when the candidate who received the most popular votes
did not become the president-elect. Five times in which the Republican
Party candidate benefited. The last two were very recent: 20 years ago when Bush
won by a tiny margin over Al Gore; and in 2016 when Trump beat Hillary Clinton.
Don’t forget that Hillary Clinton had almost three million more votes than Trump;
two percentage points. However, Trump had the upper hand at the moment of truth:
he had 304 Electoral College votes compared to Hillary Clinton's 227. And you might ask,
why does this happen? Why does the United States have such a seemingly undemocratic system?
Well, as strange as it seems, it does actually make sense. You see,
the United States is a federal state composed of 50 states, each with its own idiosyncrasies.
Imagine if a candidate emerged who was hated throughout the country but
very popular in California or Texas, which are the most populous states.
Imagine that this candidate was able to get almost unanimous support from all Californians:
both in terms of percentage of vote and percentage of voter participation. Suddenly, Californians,
or Texans, could impose their preferences on the rest of the states in the union.
That is why the United States has an electoral system designed to fulfill a mission: to prevent
the victory of a candidate supported by only one region of the country, even if that support is
very, very strong. In fact, almost all democracies have similar safeguards. In almost all countries,
the prime minister is not elected by direct vote. Citizens vote for a parliament,
and this parliament votes for the prime minister. And that's why you have to look at elections state
by state. Both in the United States and in almost any other country.
In the United States, voters elect all 538 members of the Electoral College. The only
mission of this Electoral College is to elect the president and vice president.
The U.S. Constitution says that federal elections are to be held on the Tuesday
after the first Monday in November. And that each state's Electoral College must
cast its votes on the first Monday following the second Wednesday in December of the same year.
These 538 voters do not even meet together. No. On the appointed day of December they
go to the capitals of their respective states and from there they cast their votes. And you
are probably wondering: why 538, which is a lot, if in the end they act as mere delegates? Well,
because 538 is the sum of the 435 members of the House of Representatives,
which are distributed according to the population of each state, plus the 100 members of the Senate,
which are two per state regardless of its population, and another three
who represent the District of Columbia, that is, Washington, the federal capital.
So you could say that the distribution of Electoral College members is more or
less according to the population of each state. So California has
55 votes in the Electoral College, Texas has 38 and Michigan has 16.
But wait a moment because here comes the really complicated part! In most states,
the winning candidate takes all the votes. For example,
suppose Biden wins the election in California (which is quite likely). Well,
when those 55 electoral college representatives meet in December, they will all vote for Biden.
So it doesn't matter if a candidate wins the Michigan election by one vote or by a
million votes. The important thing is to win. Then the candidate would get 16 votes
from the Electoral College and would be closer to the 270 votes needed to become
president. Only Nebraska and Maine allow electors to split votes between
the candidates according to the votes received in each of their districts.
That's why Michigan is so important. Because even though 16 votes may not seem like a lot,
keep in mind that it is one of those swing states that puts more votes into play.
And don't lose sight of another obvious fact, but one that is truly interesting in a two-party
system. Which is that we are talking about the 16 voters that one candidate wins and the 16 voters
that the other candidate fails to win. Four years ago, 77 Electoral College votes separated Trump
and Clinton. And keeping these calculations in mind, Michigan represents 32 of that 77
difference, which doesn't seem so few anymore. The question now is: How do Michigan voters feel about
this upcoming election? What do they think about it? Well, let’s take a look at that right now.
(AMERICAN CAPITALISM AS A BROKEN TOY)
Michigan has no major cities other than Detroit. Yet most of its population is
concentrated in urban areas. Only 18% live in rural areas. And industry plays
a major role in Michigan's economy. It contributes 30% of the state's GDP. The
Financial Crisis of 2009 was a critical time for the entire United States.
In previous VisualPolitik videos we have talked about the problems Detroit has gone
through. And how this city has managed to reinvent itself and generate jobs again.
(From Rust Belt to High Tech: How Employment Rebounded in Michigan. Industry Today)
Yet, as you can imagine, almost everything still revolves around the automotive industry. Today,
the state of Michigan produces more than two million cars each year;
about the same as the whole of France. So there are a lot of workers who depend on the auto
industry. People who wanted to back Sanders and instead encountered Hillary Clinton. So,
fed up with an economic system that for decades has favored outsourcing
to other countries, they voted for Trump in the presidential elections.
Remember that Detroit reached its peak in the 1950s but since then
it’s population has kept dropping. It suffered a string of factory closures,
uncertainty and rising crime that no one knew how to stop. This situation continued until
the 2009 crisis which was the tipping point for many workers. The city of Detroit ended up in
bankruptcy. These were difficult times where day after day one could see news as horrific as this:
(Detroit homes sell for $1 amid mortgage and car industry crisis. The Guardian)
The federal government was forced to intervene. To do something. And in those years it was the
Government of Barack Obama. Well, actually the president was Barack Obama and the vice
president was Joe Biden. Yes, the same man who is now running against Donald Trump.
Public money was used to bailout General Motors and Chrysler, which were bankrupt.
Ford also had to take out a loan to avoid bankruptcy. These rescue packages meant
an injection of 80 billion dollars, of which approximately 10 billion were never recovered.
However, this rescue strategy did manage to recover a key sector for Michigan's economy.
This rescue was so important that it became the main player of the 2012 SuperBowl.
In case you don't know, the SuperBowl is the most important game in American football. And
the ads that are broadcast during the breaks are the most expensive of the year. Well,
in 2012, Chryser hired the one and only Clint Eastwood to star in this commercial.
(The people of Detroit know a little something about this. They almost lost everything.
But we all pulled together, now Motor City is fighting again.)
Of course: Detroit is still a shadow of what it was
in 1950. And workers still fear losing their jobs. That's why Trump’s speeches
about America First and the attacks on China and the crackdown on factories relocating to Mexico
sounded so appealing. Those workers who were afraid of losing their jobs threw themselves
into the arms of the only one who seemed willing to prevent the factory relocations.
And I know what you're thinking: all politicians make promises in elections. Promises they never
keep. But we must recognize that, at least in this regard, Donald Trump has not fooled anyone.
Donald Trump promised a strong hand against China and Mexico. And America
First has translated into very concrete measures: on the one hand, the renegotiation
of the North American Free Trade Agreement and, of course, the ongoing trade war against China.
It seemed that at last someone cared about the working class in the United States. That someone
had listened to the workers and was taking action. They were finally giving them what they wanted.
But you know the saying: be careful what you wish for. Trying to stop trade against
China has not brought jobs back to the United States. Quite the contrary. Check this out.
(Michigan business owners say Trump's tariffs have 'mucked up the works'. Detroit News)
In the days before the coronavirus, people used to say, "Trump may be many things, but the economy
is better than ever. Or, "The stock market with Trump has gone up like crazy. And yes, it has...
for technology companies. If you work at Amazon, Google or Microsoft, your job is more than secure.
But for people who work in Michigan, the stock market makes little difference in their life.
What matters to them is what happens to the automobile industry. And this has been one
of the big losers in the trade war. To give you an idea, before the coronavirus, Michigan's car
factories had already shed 2,100 jobs. But this happened before the coronavirus. Well,
right now we're going to see where it stands today.
(THE CORONAVIRUS ON WHEELS)
When the coronavirus health crisis arrived, Trump did not want to take
action; the governor of Michigan did. Democrat Gretchen Whitmer ordered the
third-longest confinement in the United States.
And yet the state of Michigan has recorded more than 7,000 deaths from COVID-19.
The toughest restrictions were imposed when the coronavirus was already running rampant. April was
terrible in Michigan with 150 deaths every day. And you may be wondering,
But did the confinement prevent more deaths? Sure, of course it did. But there were also
strong protests against the quarantine. Was there an alternative? Some believe so.
(FREE MICHIGAN!)
The citizens of Michigan were held in their homes for 70 days from late March until early
June. And this has mostly affected workers in industry. Detroit is located in Wayne County,
which accounts for 18% of Michigan's population. However, Wayne County accounts for 25% of the
positive test results in Michigan for COVID-19 and 40% of the deaths. But we
are not only talking about lives lost: we are also talking about the economy.
(Michigan unemployment rate tops 22%, worse than Great Recession. Detroit News)
Unemployment has now recovered to 8%, but is still double the 4% it was before the
pandemic. And if it doesn't recover more, it's largely because of Trump's policies.
Agriculture and industry continue to be weighed down by the effects of the trade war with China.
Agricultural products are being hurt by tariffs. Industry has seen its exports
shrink as the materials it uses become more expensive. And again,
higher prices are paid by farmers, who have to bear higher prices when buying machinery.
As you can imagine, all this generates discontent among the workers.
An uneasiness that only increases when they see that the trade war has only generated problems.
And that's when the citizens of Michigan ask themselves:
What is the alternative to Donald Trump?
And this is where Joe Biden comes in.
Joe Biden's first advantage is that he is not Hillary Clinton. Yes, the worst news
for Trump is that Biden is not Hillary Clinton. Clinton generated a lot of rejection. Not Biden.
But above all, Biden's greatest asset is the situation. The 2016 election was framed in
terms of what do you want?: to stay the same with the lifelong political class that Hillary Clinton
represents, or to try something new with Donald Trump, the businessman from TV? In Michigan,
those who bet on novelty came out on top, but four years later it seems they are not convinced.
What’s more, the pandemic has created a critical situation in which the Democrats are exploiting
Biden's experience as Vice President during the last Financial Crisis of 2009.
Especially the fact that it was Biden who pushed through the rescue plan that saved Michigan's auto
industry. A plan that, by the way, was voted down by Mike Pence, Trump's vice president.
So Michigan is one of the most important battlegrounds for Trump and Biden. Four
years ago Trump came to the White House thanks to surprise victories in Michigan,
Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. But in Michigan he did so by a mere
10,700 votes. And in the other two states, the margins were minimal, too.
In total, Trump's victory in these three states was 67,000 votes. We are talking about 46
electoral college voters who, if they had fallen to the Democratic side, would have completely
changed the outcome of the election. That's why a few thousand votes in Michigan may be crucial to
Trump's or Biden's victory. And the question: How is the campaign going? Well, let’s take a look.
(POLITICS IN THE TIME OF COVID)
It’s rare to see two such different ways of dealing with an election campaign,
a pandemic and life in general. In Michigan, the polls give Biden a clear lead
of about 7 points so far. So Trump has gone on the attack as if he were General Custer
himself. The current president's supporters have pulled out the 7th Cavalry to attack
Biden and have called him out for everything. And I do mean everything. Even pedophilia.
And you may ask yourself, so how is Biden responding? Well, by doing practically nothing.
That’s right. Biden's strategy is very low profile. You could say it's one of the least
aggressive campaigns in history. You might imagine that Biden wants to be seen as a great reformer,
or a charismatic leader - but he's doing just the opposite. His message is: You want
to go back to a professional politician? Well, here I am! To give you an idea,
Biden's campaign is so boring that even his supporters are getting nervous. Listen up.
(Michael Moore sounds alarm on Biden's campaign in Michigan:
'It's actually worse than Hillary's. Fox News)
Biden has promised Michigan one million automotive jobs with his Build Back Better
Agenda. And that’s about it. His campaign is betting everything on digital messaging under
the guise of keeping a safe distance from voters. Something that suits him pretty well because,
let's be honest, Biden is not exactly the life of the party.
So Biden's campaign is investing a lot of money in TV ads and social media.
Just the opposite of Trump. The president's campaign cancelled its television ads in Michigan
in July. Many interpreted that move as giving up the battle in this state
after having seen Biden's lead in the polls.
But hang on a minute, because Republicans are repeating the 2016 strategy. In that election,
they saved the bombardment of ads for the final days. They focussed on key states
in October to turn the polls around. And the truth is that they succeeded.
However... This time it's different. You may be wondering, so does Trump have a
winning proposal for Michigan? Not really. He's keeping the same narrative as in 2016:
I'm going to stop China from stealing your jobs.
To be frank, we could say that the Republican campaign is too similar to that of 2016.
It seems that the pandemic has not factored in their strategy at all. Their supporters are going
door-to-door trying to convince potential voters of the president’s virtues, completely ignoring
social distancing protocols. And as soon as they can, they hold mass events. True, one such event
took place in an open-air airport hangar, but gathering more than 5,000 people in one place
for any reason doesn't seem like a good idea these days. Well, Trump thinks it's a good idea.
(This is not the crowd
of a person who comes in second place. You do know that. The same thing happened four years ago.)
As you can see, swords are still drawn in Michigan. So, of course,
we'll be keeping an eye on what unfolds in November, but now the questions are over to you.
Do you think voters should judge Trump for his presidency by ignoring the pandemic? Do you think
the results in Michigan will be so close again? In fact, if you were Michigan, would you stick
with Trump or would you bet on Biden? Leave your answer in the comments.
So I really hope you enjoyed this video, please hit like if you did, and don't forget to subscribe
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