This is Rummy's Corner.
Coming up on November 2, 2019 at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, Nevada - boxing superstar Canelo
Alvarez will venture north to challenge Sergey Kovalev for his WBO light heavyweight championship.
This mighty intriguing contest will be broadcast in the United States by the relatively new
streaming app service known as DAZN.
This is such an interesting match-up for so many different reasons.
Just a few short years ago, Sergey Kovalev was viewed as the best of the bunch at 175
and he was also considered to be among the very best pound-for-pound boxers in the world.
Kovalev's undefeated streak came to an end when he lost a close and somewhat controversial
decision against Andre Ward back in November 2016.
When Kovalev and Ward had an immediate rematch the following June, Ward put an exclamation
point on their rivalry and removed all doubts when he scored an impressive 8th round stoppage
victory.
Since the Ward bouts, Kovalev has fought 5 times, with 4 victories.
He suffered a defeat when he was dropped three times before being knocked out in round 7
against Eleider Alvarez.
That was 13 months ago.
Kovalev bounced back after that loss and avenged his defeat when he won a unanimous decision
against Alvarez back in February.
And Kovalev's most recent fight happened on August 24th when Kovalev overcame adversity
and scored an 11th round stoppage against Anthony Yarde.
Three months after Kovalev was stopped in his rematch against Andre Ward, Canelo Alvarez
challenged the undefeated unified middleweight world champion Gennady Golovkin.
This was a mega-bout in the making for quite some time, and when it finally happened, Canelo
and Golovkin battled to a controversial draw in a fight that most observers believed Golovkin
deserved to win.
When Canelo and Golovkin had an immediate rematch last September, Canelo was awarded
a majority decision victory.
But once again, a fair number of observers believed Golovkin was more deserving.
Since the Golovkin bouts, Canelo defeated Rocky Fielding last December when he won the
WBA super middleweight belt, and most recently Canelo won a workmanlike unanimous
decision against Daniel Jacobs back in May, where Canelo successfully defended his unified
WBC/WBA/IBF middleweight championship.
Many fans were expecting that this might lead to a 3rd fight between Canelo and Golovkin,
but instead, Canelo is set to challenge Kovalev, and in my honest opinion, Kovalev represents
a far more daunting task for Canelo at this point in time.
For starters, as far as I understand, this bout is taking place at 175.
This is a first for Canelo, who has always shown a solid chin and an ability to take
a great punch.
Canelo has proven this time and time again, but at the same time, he's never faced someone
as big and powerful as Kovalev.
Complicating matters further is the fact that when he's on his game, Kovalev has one of
the best jabs in boxing today.
Kovalev may not be the same tremendous force he was prior to his bouts against Andre Ward,
but he still has a world class jab, and he's been fine-tuning his style where he focuses
more on boxing at range.
This is an area where Kovalev always excelled, and since losing to Alvarez, Kovalev seems
to have made some key adjustments - the type of adjustments that should serve him well
if properly utilized against Canelo.
Afterall, the jab was the one punch that Golovkin used to greatest effect in his two bouts with
Canelo.
The key for Kovalev winning this fight is consistently using his jab to dictate the
range.
Kovalev is going to want to keep Canelo at the end of his jab, and Kovalev is going to
want to dissuade Canelo from working his way to mid range and closer.
This means Kovalev will likely need to land some meaningful shots early on to gain Canelo's
respect.
Kovalev doesn't want to fully commit to all of his power shots, but he will need to
get Canelo's respect early.
If Kovalev can force Canelo to respect his power early, Canelo is going to be in for
a very difficult night if the bulk of the action takes place on the outside.
In a very real sense, I think Kovalev is going to want to emulate what worked for Golovkin,
and I also believe that Canelo is going to want to emulate what worked for Ward.
There are obvious differences at play here.
I tend to believe Golovkin is far more versatile than Kovalev, and I think Gennady has a better
overall jab and a better overall skillset.
But on the flipside, I think Kovalev is better at doing the things he does best, and while
his jab might not be as good as Golovkin's, that doesn't mean that it can't be more
effective against Canelo.
Kovalev's jab is rangier and more powerful, and this may cause Canelo more issues than
Golovkin's superior timing.
With regards to Ward and Canelo, I think Ward is more fluid and athletic with his movements,
particularly his footwork.
But Canelo does have some splendid movement of his own and a ring IQ to match it, and
Alvarez might actually be more versatile than Ward, if not more adaptable.
Canelo is going to want to follow the basic blueprint established by Ward.
Canelo is going to want to do everything in his power to disrupt Kovalev from finding
a rhythm with his jab.
That's probably the #1 key to success for Canelo.
There are various ways Canelo can achieve this, but for the most part, he's going
to want the bulk of the action to take place where he is either too close for Kovalev in
tight, or too far outside where Kovalev can't establish his groove.
Canelo will also want to work the body whenever the opportunities surface.
If Canelo can invest some consistent solid work downstairs in the early going, and if
Canelo can also find a way to keep things too close or too far while finding the right
timing to maneuver both inside and out, Kovalev might be in some trouble.
Again, the key for Canelo here is to disrupt Kovalev from finding his rhythm while making
a proper investment downstairs.
But this is easier said than done, and to date, the only person who had ample success
in executing this strategy against Kovalev was Andre Ward.
Canelo is an outstanding body puncher in his own right.
But can Canelo administer the type of downstairs assault that's effective enough to stop
Kovalev?
I'm not so sure, and honestly, I'm very torn on this fight.
At the end of the day, I'm inclined to believe that the two most likely outcomes here are
either Kovalev by stoppage, or Canelo on points.
That's not to say it's impossible for Kovalev to win a decision, and that's not
to say it's impossible for Canelo to score a knockout.
Either way, the longer this thing goes, I tend to believe it favors Canelo.
At the same time, I think Kovalev has the type of game changing heavy-handed power that
he could change the course of the action with a single well timed punch from either hand.
In that sense, I believe Kovalev has more room for error.
So I believe Kovalev is bigger, stronger, has more room for error, and is especially
good at fighting the type of fight that could potentially give Canelo a lot of problems.
On the other hand, I believe Canelo is fresher, faster, more skilled, more experienced under
the biggest spotlight, and has an overall higher ring IQ.
These guys both have the skills to potentially win against each other - so what this really
boils down to is who will execute better on fight night?
If you consider the fact that Canelo is taking this big risk - and make no mistake, this
is an extremely risky fight for Canelo.
When you consider the magnitude of this risk, and you look at the fact that Canelo has opened
as a sizable favorite, and you see guys like Andre Ward and Abel Sanchez reportedly picking
Canelo to emerge victorious - you get the sense that the general feeling is that Kovalev
is past it and that Canelo is seizing a legacy-building opportunity at just the right time.
Personally, I'm not so sure that I think Kovalev is as past it as the various signs
seem to be indicating.
This is a very bold move on Canelo's part, and this might well wind up ending in disaster
for Alvarez.
A lot of people seem to feel that Kovalev is just cashing out, but I think he probably
sees this as a huge opportunity, so I'm expecting the very best effort he's capable
of at this stage in his career.
All of that being said, for my official prediction I'm somewhat reluctantly going with Canelo
Alvarez by a razor thin split decision victory.
My main reasons for picking Canelo are his big fight experience and the fact that Canelo
has always performed more consistently.
Kovalev sometimes runs a little hot and cold, and when he's running cold he sometimes
has a tendency to lose focus.
That's the ultimate difference for me.
I think it will be super close and competitive contest, as I believe Kovalev will undoubtedly
put his best foot forward.
I wouldn't be surprised if this one is ruled a draw, and I�m almost expecting it will
be controversial in the same mold as Canelo's two bouts against Golovkin, as well as Kovalev's
first bout against Ward.
But the truth is, I really have no idea what's going to happen, and that's part of what
makes this match-up so absolutely fascinating!
I, for one, cannot wait to watch, and whatever happens - may the best man win!
November 2!
Las Vegas, Nevada!
In a bout that will be broadcast on DAZN!
Sergey Kovalev vs Canelo Alvarez!
This one is a must watch for boxing fans, and it's right around the corner.
This one can potentially be great, and November 2 can't arrive quickly enough!
So who do you think will win the upcoming showdown between Kovalev and Canelo?
Please share your thoughts in the comment section.
Thanks for watching everyone.
Hope you enjoyed and have a wonderful night.
This is Rummy's Corner.