Is India becoming a dictatorship?
In April and May 2024, India will go to the polls for the largest elections in human history.
But as 950 million people prepare to vote,
the outcome is clear: Prime Minister Narendra Modi will secure a third term.
However, after 10 years in power, there are growing fears about the implications of another
victory in a country that appears to be sliding into nationalist and religious authoritarianism.
Indeed, there have even been accusations that Modi is becoming a dictator.
So, is India's democracy really at risk?
Hello and welcome. If you're new to the channel, my name is James Ker-Lindsay,
and here I take an informed look at international relations, conflict, security, and statehood.
The end of the Cold War in the early 1990s supposedly
marked the triumph of liberal democracy.
With the demise of the Soviet Union and the West’s
victory over communism, it seemed as if a new era had emerged that would see countries around
the world slowly but surely follow a path towards political and economic openness.
However, 30 years later, the international system appears very different.
In addition to a growing pushback against economic globalisation,
there's been an increasing trend towards authoritarianism.
Countries once seen as full-fledged democracies have become increasingly illiberal and autocratic.
One of the most significant examples is India.
Long termed the world's largest democracy, it was for decades celebrated for upholding
a pluralistic multi-party system, free elections, and a constitution
that guaranteed fundamental rights in one of the world's most diverse countries.
But is this all now at risk?
The Republic of India is located in South Asia.
A peninsula, it's bordered by the Indian Ocean to the south,
the Arabian Sea to the southwest, and the Bay of Bengal to the southeast.
To its north, it shares land borders with Pakistan, China,
Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, and Myanmar.
At around 3.3 million square kilometers,
or 1.3 million square miles, it's the world's seventh-largest country.
India's population currently stands at around 1.3 billion,
having recently overtaken China to become the most populous country in the world.
It comprises a complex range of languages, ethnic groups, and religions.
While Hindi and English dominate, there are 22 official languages.
As for religion, while 80% of Indians are Hindu, other faiths include Islam,
Christianity, Sikhism, Buddhism, and Jainism.
Politically, India is a federal parliamentary democratic republic,
divided into 28 states and eight union territories.
While each is autonomous, the central government
retains authority over significant policy areas, including foreign affairs and defence.
India has an exceptionally long and rich history.
Following the emergence of civilisation in the Indus Valley around 5,000 years ago,
the country was first unified under the Mauryan Empire around 300 BCE.
While this eventually declined, India was again partially united by the Gupta Empire
in the 5th century - an era that's often regarded as India's Golden Age,
with advances in science, art, religion, and philosophy.
After again disintegrating into numerous regional kingdoms,
India eventually fell under Islamic rule.
This culminated in the Mughal Empire in the 1700s.
However, this was soon challenged by the advent of European colonialism, and by the late 18th
century, the British East India Company had emerged as the dominant force in India.
This lasted until the 1857 Indian Rebellion.
At that point, the British government assumed
direct rule over much of India and exerted control over hundreds of princely states.
But by the start of the 20th century, pressure was growing against British imperial rule,
led by figures such as Mahatma Gandhi and Jawaharlal Nehru.
The Indian National Congress emerged as the dominant voice against colonialism.
In 1947, Britain agreed to leave, but as tensions rose between Hindus and Muslims,
the decision was taken to partition the subcontinent into two countries.
On 15 August, India and Pakistan became independent states.
Following independence, India faced the enormous challenge of state-building.
As well as dealing with the trauma of partition, which had led to widespread
violence and over a million deaths, the country also had to integrate over 500 princely states,
including the disputed region of Kashmir, also claimed by Pakistan.
This led to the first of a series of wars between the two countries.
From the start, the Indian National Congress,
better known as the Congress Party, dominated the country's politics.
Led by Nehru, who became the country's first prime minister,
its ideology was based on secular socialism.
It also championed decolonisation and emerged as a founder of the Non-Aligned Movement,
which abstained from the East-West superpower confrontation of the Cold War.
Although India made significant progress in the 1950s, including a major reorganisation of its
states and territories along language lines, it became politically unstable in the mid-1960s.
Nehru's death in May 1964, after almost 17 years in power,
was followed by a second war with Pakistan.
In January 1966, Nehru's daughter, Indira Gandhi, became Prime Minister.
This would profoundly reshape India.
Following poor results in the 1967 general election and facing internal party opposition,
Gandhi began to strengthen her position.
In 1969, she nationalised the country's banks to expand their services into poor rural areas, a
decision that's still widely regarded as the most important economic move in modern Indian history.
This was followed by India's victory in a third war against Pakistan
in 1971, a conflict that led to the creation of Bangladesh.
But Gandhi's most important decision came in 1975.
Arguing that the country faced grave internal and external threats,
she imposed a state of emergency.
As well as suspending civil liberties and curtailing press freedoms,
it also led to widespread political arrests in the
period that's since been called the country's first dictatorship.
In March 1977, the emergency ended, and new elections were held.
After 30 years in power, Congress was voted out of office and replaced by
the Janata Movement, comprised of various opposition parties.
However, the coalition soon collapsed, and in 1980, Gandhi returned as Prime Minister.
In the period that followed, India continued to face political instability.
This included an escalating Sikh insurgency in Punjab, in the country's northwest.
This came to a head in June 1984, when Gandhi ordered Indian troops to storm
the Golden Temple in Amritsar, a sacred shrine where militants had taken refuge.
Just months later, in an act of revenge, Indira Gandhi was assassinated by her Sikh bodyguards.
At this point, power passed to the next generation of the Gandhi family,
as Indira's son Rajiv became prime minister.
But while he introduced many significant reforms, the country continued to be plagued
by unrest as well as by political scandals and allegations of widespread corruption.
By now, Congress's power was increasingly coming under challenge as new political parties emerged.
One of the most prominent of these was the Bharatiya Janata Party,
formed in 1980 from the remnants of an earlier group and espousing Hindu nationalism.
It first came to national prominence when it joined a campaign to build a Hindu
temple on the site of a Muslim mosque in the city of Ayodhya.
In 1989, the party came third in national elections, winning 11% of the vote,
and became part of a new coalition government formed against Congress.
However, the new administration was precarious and short-lived.
A year later, the BJP withdrew its support after its leader,
L.K. Advani, was arrested while traveling to Ayodhya.
From there, the BJP went from strength to strength.
In the next elections, held in 1991, the party came second,
winning 20% of the vote to Congress's 36%.
But the critical moment came the following year when the Ayodhya mosque was attacked
and demolished by Hindu nationalists just hours after an inflammatory speech by Advani.
This, in turn, sparked sectarian rioting across
India that left an estimated 2,000 to 3,000 people dead.
While the violence in Ayodhya caused widespread death and destruction,
it nevertheless cemented the BJP's power base.
But although the party emerged as the largest group in elections in
1996 and 1998, it was unable to form a stable coalition administration.
Ultimately, the real breakthrough came in 1999, when the BJP finally formed a strong government.
Over the next five years, Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee
led what was widely considered to be a modernizing administration.
It also adopted a more moderate tone domestically and internationally,
playing down the party's Hindu nationalism and even pursuing improved relations with Pakistan.
However, despite this attempt to soften the BJP's image,
the party's national standing suffered a blow in 2002 when Hindu pilgrims returning
from Ayodhya were attacked in the western state of Gujarat.
This led to mass rioting that saw over a thousand people killed, most of whom were Muslim.
Crucially, much of the blame for the violence fell on the state's new BJP Chief Minister,
Narendra Modi, accused of having condoned the attacks.
These allegations not only led to significant domestic condemnation but also saw him banned from
entering the European Union and the United States on the grounds that he was promoting extremism.
And it was against this background that Congress returned to power
in 2004, winning a second term in 2009.
Although many believed that Modi had cost the BJP the election in 2004,
over the following decade, he gained significant support within the party.
This culminated in his selection as the BJP's candidate for Prime
Minister in the 2014 national elections.
Despite his divisive reputation, Modi went on to beat the Congress Party, then led by Rahul Gandhi,
the fourth generation of the Gandhi family to run for the top office.
Once in office, Modi embarked on an ambitious reform program.
In addition to developing India's manufacturing base and introducing business-friendly policies,
steps were also taken to improve public health,
although claims that he alleviated poverty are still highly contested.
Meanwhile, regarding foreign policy, he focused on developing India's regional
and international relations, increasing its presence in international bodies,
and even extending India's cultural power.
However, while all this saw the BJP return to power in 2019,
discontent was already growing over Modi's increasingly nationalist and authoritarian rule.
For instance, there was widespread concern about a new citizenship law that allowed refugees from
neighboring states to gain Indian nationality but which excluded Muslims from applying.
Likewise, there was also an outcry when the government stripped Jammu and Kashmir of
its special status, despite opposition from the state's significant Muslim population.
On top of all this, concerns have been growing
about the centralization of power and challenges to democratic freedoms.
Many have criticized Modi's style of government,
arguing that he's becoming increasingly self-promoting and authoritarian.
They've also noted declines in press freedom, crackdowns on civil society,
and even growing efforts to limit judicial independence.
And it's against this backdrop that India is preparing for its next national elections.
But amidst claims that Modi is systematically undermining India's
democracy, some have even suggested that he's becoming a dictator.
But just how accurate is this?
His opponents argue that his autocratic approach to governance, his centralization of power,
and his virulent Hindu nationalism all undermine the country's traditional political values.
As they see it, a third term in office will cement his
power and inevitably see further steps towards the dismantling of democracy.
In contrast, to his supporters, Modi represents a strong leader with a record of achievements.
As they see it, he's built India's economy,
eased poverty, and boosted its international status.
Moreover, they argue that he remains genuinely popular
and that his leadership style resonates with much of the country.
Of course, neither side is wholly correct.
While Modi is certainly not a dictator in the traditional sense of the word,
he is undoubtedly autocratic.
In this sense, it's perhaps better to view him as a populist authoritarian.
He fits the mold of Hungary's Viktor Orban or Turkey's Recep Tayyip Erdogan
rather than the true dictatorial style of people like Syria's Bashar al-Assad,
North Korea's Kim Jong-un, or Russia's Vladimir Putin.
All this said, the steady chipping away of political freedoms in these so-called
"soft dictatorships" can often open the way for a more overt form of autocracy.
For all these reasons, the next five years might
well indeed become a critical period for the future of India and its democracy.
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