a political storm has been brewing
in the conservative heartlands and today
it's hit
in chesham and amisham courtesy of the
liberal democrats
green sarah louise of the liberal
democrat party
is duly elected
[Applause]
whose stunning by-election victory
overturned a 16
000 majority in a seat that has only
ever been
tory no wonder lib dem leader ed davey
was
milking it you know what happens when a
really powerful strong orange force
goes against a blue wall come back
let me show you
it wasn't even close they won with an 8
000
majority something that took even party
insiders by surprise
[Music]
the successful candidates sarah green
was all smiles
but not much else
apparently too tired to talk
even at her own victory rally
her campaign was tailored to this leafy
home county's constituency
where voters are worried about too many
new houses being built
and hs2 she's opposed to both
even though her party policy is actually
in favor
of the high-speed rail line so hs2
planning reforms is this more of a
victory for nimbyism
than the liberal democrats no not not at
all liberal democrats made very clear
that we believe we do need more houses
we want more affordable houses more
sustainable houses in the right places
bryce johnson's wanted to focus on the
red wall um i
think now british politics has got to
remember their flank their rear flank
the blue wall
and it's liberal democrats who could
defeat a lot of conservative mps in the
next election
we look at this guy he looks a bit like
so have the conservatives been
neglecting their heartlands
in favor of places like hartlepool
this may not look like a left behind
town but like those in the former red
wall
some here feel taken for granted i think
the government are putting a lot of
emphasis on the north
which is right i think they need to but
also i don't think they should
neglect this not home counties boris
johnson may be
um trying to woo the northern vote
and he's just forgotten what we're about
it's a protest vote
it's a protest vote you know it's quite
easy to do it in a by-election it was a
certainly disappointing result and i
want to thank peter fleet outstanding
local candidate but there were
particular circumstances
there and um we are getting on with
delivering our agenda for the whole
country
how worried should the conservatives be
about this result
it is the obverse of what happened in
heart nepal where the
conservatives did extremely well in a
working-class league voting constituency
this is remain voting middle class
southern england it reacts to boris
johnson and his agenda
very differently and it does mean that
therefore these constituencies are
relatively speaking now
more vulnerable than we traditionally
would have expected them to be
a permanent shift or a temporary blip
what this by-election does show
is that the landscape of british
politics is still as changeable as
ever well earlier i spoke to the
political sociologist paula suraj and
the former tory mp for the neighbouring
constituency david gork
i began by asking if this result was a
one-off or the beginnings of something
more difficult for the conservatives
i think there are local issues in play
as they usually are in by-elections but
i think there is something broader than
that
as as well clearly planning and hs2 were
important
um but i think we are seeing the
evidence that the conservative votes in
a lot of these home county
prosperous places tended to vote remain
that conservative rate is pretty soft
and therefore it doesn't take that much
for them to move
elsewhere i don't think there's huge
enthusiasm for brexit in places like
cheshire and amisham
i don't think there's a huge enthusiasm
for the prime minister
and the style of his politics
and i think that is a potential
vulnerability and just as the
conservatives have benefited
from a realignment in british politics
uh
in the north of england over time i
suspect the flip side of that is that we
will see the conservatives losing more
seats
in london the southeast of england and
other
if you like prosperous uh areas where
there are a lot of graduates
that that section of um the electorate
is moving away from the conservatives
paula suraj what do you make of that
analysis
i think that analysis is broadly correct
but i would add to it that we have to
ask the question why didn't this happen
at the 2019 election why is it happening
now
and i think there's two factors that
have changed significantly that might
help these voters
move across now when they didn't before
the first is that
we're we've we've now left the european
union the
the danger if you like of a second
referendum and more uncertainty
around brexit has been removed the
second thing about these voters were
that they were
they they really strongly disliked
corbyn and were quite fearful of
corbyn's labour
and so a different labour leader also
allows them
to feel a bit more comfortable moving
away from the conservatives obviously a
large conservative majority helps that a
little bit as well
but i mean that you talk about labor it
was a disaster for labour
well that i think that really depends
how you read it if you read it as a
tactical vote in a place that labor
can't possibly win i don't think it is a
disaster for labour
in fact i think it could be read as
quite good news for labour because it
shows
actually that that problem of getting
people to switch between the parties
that they had in 2019
might be removed and of course david
gawk you know many people will regard
this as a victory for nimbys you know
people who just don't want
much um building and hs2 going through
the beautiful
rather posh countryside that they live
in the conservatives can't be seen
to be giving in to people because this
often on this issue because it often
means
fewer houses and that's something we
desperately need
well the political worry in the
conservative party
um is the most conservatives tend to
think that
if people own their own homes they're
more likely to vote conservative
but younger people can't own their own
homes because it's too expensive
so the solution is you build more homes
but as you build more homes you upset
the existing conservative voters so
i think they consider themselves to be
in a bit of a bind
as as i say i think they've they've got
to
make this a more attractive offer to
existing residents in areas where
they're going to see developments
um but that that is the bind that the
conservative party
is in on this paula serge and david gall
thanks very much for talking to us today
you