Hey, what's up, triathletes?
Taren here.
We are weeks away from the big dance at IronMan Kona 2016.
Stick around because today I am going to run through the pro-field of the men's and the
women's race, give you a rundown of who the favorites are and who I expect to win at the
show.
To start off with the pro men, I think that the number 1 favorite to win is clearly defending
champion Jan Frodeno.
Besides validating his spot as a defending champion in Kona with a 2nd place finish in
behind Jesse Thomas at Ironman Lanzarote, Jan has had an awesome season.
He won Ironman Dubai 70.3 by more than 7 minutes, and he put in what is probably the best performance
ever in Ironman history, smashing the world record at the Ironman Distance and Challenge
Roth by nearly 6 minutes in 7:35:39.
That's damn fast!
Last year, in Kona, it seemed like he made it look easy.
He wasn't taxed throughout the entire race.
He lead wire to wire, virtually coming out in either the front spot or the 2nd spot on
the swim, the bike, and the run.
I think that the only person that can beat Jan is Jan.
If for some reason, he isn't able to dial it it, yeah.
Other competitors could come in and beat him, but do I expect that?
No really.
I think Jan's biggest competitor out there is Sebastian Kienle.
He raced in 5 Ironman branded events this year, with a win at the Euro Championship
at Ironman Frankfurt against an absolutely stacked field, and then just this past weekend
at the Ironman 70.3 World Championships in Queensland, he picked up a 2nd place finish
by only 2 seconds.
Sebastian always has a habit of finishing on the podium in the half Ironman World Championships
in the weeks leading up to Kona, but he doesn't tend to use that as a barometer for his fitness,
so is that 2nd place finish an indication of how fit he is?
I really don't know.
The one thing that you know about Sebastian though is that he's going to show up prepared
to lose the race in order to have a chance to win it.
He will absolutely smash the bike trying to soften up Jan Frodeno, and as long as his
legs are still fresh enough for the run, he's got a chance.
The thing about Sebastian though is that because he risks so much, if the day doesn't come
together well enough for him, he might not even finish in the top 5.
A personal favorite of mine who I think could do really well this year is fellow Canadian
Brent McMahon, who spent the last few years dialing in that Ironman Distance.
He won in Ironman Brazil in a time of 07:46:10, which is the 3rd fastest race in Ironman Distance
history.
You might think, "Oh, Ironman Brazil.
He's figured out hot weather racing," but the temperature on that day was only about
20, 21 degrees Celsius, 68 degrees Fahrenheit for you US folk, and he struggled quite a
bit last year in Kona, so is he going to show up, and can he figure out Kona in just one
appearance, and then show up in his 2nd appearance and make the podium?
We're going to have to wait and see.
Other things that you can definitely expect during Kona is that Andy Potts will almost
certainly lead the swim, maybe not quite as much as years past because he's been testing
out holding himself back in the swim so that he's fresher for the bike.
Andreas Raelert is almost definitely going to make the podium.
He's only missed it twice since 2009, and former champion Frederik Van Lierde is almost
certainly going to be in the mix somewhere in the top 5 because he's really figured out
this race.
Despite not having twitchy fast speed in any one of the distances, he's figured out how
to show up in Kona, so he's always a threat to win.
The one athlete that I'm really curious to see how he debuts in Kona is US athlete Jesse
Thomas, the aviator.
In his Ironman Distance debut at Ironman Wales, he pick up a win, and then he picked up a
win at Ironman Lanzarote, beating not other than Jan Frodeno, but in his 1st crack at
Kona, do I expect him to do well?
Not necessarily, but I think he's got the potential to get there.
As far as the women's race goes, I think that just like last year, it's a 2 horse race.
Sorry ladies.
I don't mean to call you horses.
My pick to win is defending champion Daniela Ryf.
Based off of her performance last year, where she was just dominant, I think it's hard to
pick anyone else.
She also won Ironman Switzerland by more than a half an hour this year.
She also won Challenge Roth, like Jan Frodeno did, but she didn't even scare Chrissie Wellington's
World Championship time.
Like last year, she did compete in the Half Ironman World Championship, but unlike last
year, she didn't win.
What?
Yeah, I know.
Shocked me too.
Could it be that she was holding back on the day because she's already got that Half Ironman
world Championship in her pocket, and she wants to focus on Kona?
Could be the case, and it could be a really smart decision because a lot of defending
champions get overwhelmed by all the media appearances in the year after their 1st Kona
win, so she could be holding back a lot, making sure that she's fresh enough for the Ironman
World Championships.
That's the big kahuna of them all.
It wouldn't surprise me if she's focusing on that.
I think Ryf's only competitor is Mirinda Carfrae, and this is a little bit strange to be saying
that it's going off the board a little bit, but that's because, as far as the Kona pro
rankings go, Carfrae is ranked 51st in the world right now.
She's only raced in one full Ironman Distance even to validate her spot in Kona, and the
rest of her races have been half Ironman's, or is that Ironwomen?
Carfrae, like in years past, has changed her approach in preparation for Kona.
Do I know if she's going to be ready, if she's fit, if she's healthy, if she's feeling good?
I honestly don't have a hot clue because Carfrae has kept herself out of the big races, and
she hasn't really even shown what her fitness level is right now.
That said, you can never rule her out on the Big Island.
2 female triathletes who could do well in their 2nd appearance in Kona because they
have had a great season are Great Britain's Susie Cheetham, who comes in as the 2nd ranked
female Ironman Distance triathlete in the world, and the US's Sarah Piampiano, who comes
in as the third ranked Ironman Distance triathlete in the world.
Both these women debuted in Kona last year and respectively finished a very badass 6th
and 7th place.
Last year, I called for the fantastically tattooed Heather Jackson to establish herself
as a future contender in Kona, and she did that with a 5th place finish.
This year, she's continued on with that with a fantastic season.
She set a course record at Ironman Lake Placid and had half Ironman wins at Chattanooga and
Coeur D'Alene, so if I'm picking a dark horse to make the podium in Kona, it's going to
be Heather Jackson.
One of the most notable things on the women's side are 3 women who aren't in the field,
Rachel Joyce is out, expecting her 1st child.
Liz Blatchford is out due to injury, and Caroline Steffen announced earlier in the year that
she wasn't even going to try to go to Kona.
She was going to focus on the Half Ironman World Championship, which she did.
Didn't even make the podium.
There you have it folks.
Those are my picks for who's going to make the podium, and who's going to win at the
big show on the Big Island.
I will be doing a wrap up of the men's and women's race in the couple of days after Kona
is completed, so if you don't want to miss those, make sure you subscribe to the channel.
A special good luck to my training partner and North American Age Group Ironman Champion,
Nicole Walker, who you've seen in several other videos, and as always, happy and hard
training, and good luck in your next triathlon, especially if it's in Kona.
That'd be so cool!
It's that same starting frame every day.
Every day.