The Senkaku Islands are a group of uninhabited islands controlled by Japan in the East China
Sea. Japan’s sovereignty over the territory is disputed by China. This flash point could
result in an all out confrontation between Japan and China, with China being the aggressor.
In recent years, China has paid significant attention to its military. China’s defense
budget, has increased ten fold in the last twenty five years, has funded the construction
of an ocean-going navy, a modern army and an efficient air force .In particular Chinese
Navy has been strengthened to a large extend with recently fielded aircraft carrier, Liaoning,
as well as fleets of submarines, destroyers, frigates, corvettes, replenishment ships,
and amphibious assault ships.
In this video, we will analyze how USA and India can help Japan in thwarting any Chinese aggression.
The Chinese military is an impressive force, but local geography will create challenges
during wartime. Japan controls a string of islands that form the Miyako Strait, which
Chinese naval forces must transit to enter the western Pacific. Properly fortified, the
Japanese-held Ryukyu Islands could conceivably block passage of the Strait altogether.
Japan could use the Ryukyus to execute an Anti-Access, Area Denial (A2/AD) plan in the
Miyako Strait.
Like any good A2/AD strategy, such a plan in the Strait would require a fraction of
the spending necessary to overcome it.
Japan’s Self Defense Forces will initiate the following steps to counter China:
1. The radar network consisting of AN/TPY-2 radars would stand guard against ballistic
missile attacks by the Second Artillery Corps of China. This would be backed up by the Japan
Maritime Self Defense Force’s (MSDF) BMD-capable cruisers and destroyers, of which there are currently four.
2. Patriot PAC-2 and PAC-3 interceptors would provide point defense against aircraft and
ballistic missiles respectively.
3. Japan’s fleet of 16 submarines, is in the process of being increased to 22, they
will be the most effective active defense. The submarine fleet, composed of the newer
Soryu and older Oyashio-class diesel electric submarines, is one of the most professional
and technologically advanced in the world. This would pit Japan’s strength in submarine
warfare against Chinese weaknesses in anti-submarine warfare (ASW).
4. Operating from Okinawa and Kyushu, Japan’s fleet of E 7 6 7 ,and E-2D early warning aircraft
would detect enemy fighters and direct the air battle. F-15J fighters would be vectored
to intercept Chinese fighters. The F-15Js would also be tasked with destroying China’s
airborne early warning and tanker aircraft,
5. Japan has several batteries of Type 88-missiles, which mount six missiles per transporter truck.
The Type-88 has a range of nearly 100 miles, meaning that missiles mounted on Miyakojima
and Okinawa would overlap in range, completely covering the strait.
This defensive configuration will be able to absorb the initial Chinese onslaught, and
provide enough time to USA & India to get involved.
USA is bound by The Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security to help Japan. For the convenience
of viewers , here is a brief details of the agreement.
The treaty was first signed in 1952 ,and was updated many times after that. Since Japan
was disarmed after WW2, USA through this treaty agreed to come to Japan’s aid incase, Japan
was attacked by any other country. Under the treaty, both parties assumed an
obligation to maintain and develop their capacities to resist armed attack in common, and to assist
each other in case of military attack on territories under Japanese administration.To support that
requirement, it provided for the continued presence of U.S. military bases in Japan.
The United States Forces Japan (USFJ) is an active subordinate unified command of the
United States Pacific Command (USPACOM).
USFJ will swing into action and initiate encrypted communication to activate the security protocol.
This will set rolling the following :
1. The Pentagon has designed a new strategy for the 21st century, called Air-Sea Battle,
a concept that combines air and naval forces to punch through the increasingly formidable
defenses of nations like China.
2. An important part of Air-Sea Battle calls for the military to operate from small, bare
bone bases in the Pacific, so that its forces can disperse to in case their main bases are
targeted by Chinese ballistic missiles.
3. US will activate it forces in these bases and send its fighters to defend
Japan’s airspace.
4. Carrier Strike Group - Commander Fleet Activities Yokosuk ,which is based out of
Japan will be activated and initiate active defensive positioning to counter Chinese Navy and Air force.
5. US Air force will send in Airborne Warning
and Control System (AWACS) to monitor and skies and relay minute by minute information
to Japan and India. 6. Chinese Navy has large number of surface
ships as well as submarines. The P-8 Poseidon is developed for the United States Navy (USN)
by Boeing . It conducts anti-submarine warfare (ASW), anti-surface warfare (ASUW), and shipping
interdiction, along with an electronic signals intelligence (ELINT) role. It is equipped
with Raytheon APY-10 multi-mission surface search radar and many other sensors to detect
surface and under water vessels. These will be immediately pressed into action.
India has long standing border dispute with China. India has good relations with Japan.
In case of a Chinese attack on Japan , India is not expected to be a mute spectators. Japan
loss is India’s loss, as both of them have China as common rival. Also, if China gets
away with aggression against Japan , it will become more buoyant and create problems for India.
India ,USA & Japan share close strategic relation which can be ascertained by the following:
1. India is participating in Exercise Malabar,a trilateral naval exercise involving the United
States & Japan . Originally a bilateral exercise between India and the U.S., Japan became a
permanent partner in 2015. Despite the statement by a top US Navy officer that Malabar was
“not directly aimed at China”,there is very little doubt about who is the target.
The exercise is conducted only about 400 KM from the contested Senkaku Islands. Scenarios
include hunting for Chinese submarines, ships and countering hostile Chinese navy
2. India and the United States have agreed in principle to share military logistics.
Washington and New Delhi have largely agreed to the terms of a new agreement that allows
the two militaries to use each other's land, air and naval bases for resupplies, repair
and rest. This has been specifically done keeping China in mind.
India will keep Chinese guessing about the future actions & take the following steps:
1. India will start providing intelligence to Japan and USA on Chinese movements.
2. India has one of the largest armies in the world. India will start mobilizing its
troop near the Indo -China border to create pressure on China.
3. Defense Ministry has approved the induction of a third regiment of BrahMos for deployment
in North Eastern sector along the China border. The BrahMos is a ramjet supersonic cruise
missile having a range of 290 KM. Each regiment of BrahMos consists of around 65 missiles,
five mobile autonomous launchers & supporting equipment. India will activate the regiment
for battle. 4. According to latest media reports, Defense
Ministry has cleared the plan to raise six new armored regiments that will be equipped
with roughly 350 tanks. In addition, three mechanized infantry battalions will be raised
with 180 BMP-II infantry combat vehicles. These will be put on alert.
5. India is buying the 155 mm M777 guns at a cost of about $750 million from America’s
BAE Systems. The M777 howitzer is a towed 155mm artillery piece,is a successor to the
M198 howitzer .It is manufactured by BAE System’s Global Combat Systems division.
This is first major buy for the Mountain Strike Corps. Note that, The Mountain Strike Corps
has been specially raised to defend India’s border with China. These guns will be set
to fire ready condition.
Though Japan’s military budget is about 1/4 compared to China, Japan Self Defense
Force is an efficient force. It can drive the confrontation to a stalemate on its own.
USA and India actions will heavily tilt the balance against China.
China also has dispute with all the neighboring country except Pakistan. Pakistan is expected
not to intervene as it is depended on USA for economic aid.
Surrounded by rival nations like of Vietnam & Philippines, China will find itself under
immense pressure.
It will understand that , its a war it can’t win but only loose. It will halt the campaign
and will have to agree to an unconditional cease fire.